Posted on 03/13/2016 8:44:23 AM PDT by Hojczyk
What does “Errrrrmmm...” mean?
Wake me when Cruz wins every single delegate in Missouri, gets to 50% of the vote in North Carolina and takes 11 of the 18 CDs in Illinois along with the statewide delegates.
That math fails before it even begins.
The Math is just fine. Your math however is pure Trumpbot wishful thinking. No one in his right mind is going to take your prognosis seriously. David Horowitz is a very respected columnist with a pretty solid record, and he is going to have to defend every prediction he makes. You are just an anonymous poster on FR posting Trumbbot propaganda.
Really? The Math is fine there? Cruz won DC? Cruz won Guam’s (unpledged) delegates? Cruz took all 9 delegates out of the Virgin Islands? Cruz leads Trump 50-40 in NC? Cruz is so far ahead in IL that he takes 11 of the 18 CDs? Cruz is so far ahead in MO that he takes ALL the delegates? Trump doesn’t get a single CD, even in let’s say St. Louis proper?
You can call me a Trumpbot all you want, but that’s not going to change the cold, hard math.
The only way Cruz gets to the nomination cleanly if he loses both OH and FL is if he runs the table post-May 15th and gets the uncommitted delegate states on his side in the first ballot. Realistically, that’s not going to happen.
About DC...This is what he said:
“Trump is unlikely to find too many supporters in D.C. Kasich and Rubio are still wild cards, but either way Cruz should do better there than Trump - See more at: https://www.conservativereview.com/commentary/2016/03/cruzs-path-to-victory-the-math-and-science#sthash.MFX0sYAM.dpuf
He was exactly right. Trump got totally clobbered in DC, wining ZERO delegates. In fact the entire pollinators of Wyoming, Guam and DC were a total disaster for Trump. He ended up with exactly ONE delegate.
About Guam. Ted Cruz DID win Guam, albeit most of the delegates will be allocated later, just like Wyoming.
He was right? Trump finished 3rd in the lobbyist and special interest primary in DC. Cruz finished 4th. Both got 0 delegates (as they should have, because neither are establishment candidates). Little Marco got yet another useless state Participation Trophy.
Trump also got 1 of the 12 delegates that was apportioned in WY over the weekend. Cruz got 10.
Cruz got 1 delegate from Guam that was pledged. The remainder are unpledged.
The USVI ended up with a slate of 9 uncommitted.
This has nothing to do with voting for Trump or Cruz. It’s just an honest assessment of the race. The narrative that you sent me the link from doesn’t hold water at this point in time.
Cruz got 1 delegate from Guam that was pledged. The remainder are unpledged.
Bottom line? Trump got exactly ONE delegate out of Wyoming, DC and Guam combined.
Ted Cruz won Wyoming by the biggest margin of any GOP primary this year.
Wyoming has a total of 26 delegates, out of which only 11-have been allocated, with Cruz getting 9 of them. Expect Cruz(with over 66% of the vote) to gobble up almost all the remaining 15 delegates at the state convention in Casper in mid-April.
Similar thing in Guam. Expect Cruz to sweep up the rest of the delegates as well. Pencil in an expected altogether 20 extra delegates for Cruz.
A in all it wasn't a very good day for Trump though.
Note, I never mentioned Trump in any of this.
The analysis is similar for Trump if he loses FL and OH. The 80-90 delegate lead helps, but if he loses both of those states, his path to a clean nomination is also limited.
Losing OH itself may cause a number of problems for him to get a clear path to the nomination no matter how favorable the maps look for him as well.
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