Posted on 03/28/2016 11:01:16 AM PDT by upchuck
First-quarter growth is now tracking at just 0.9 percent, after new data showed surprising weakness in consumer spending and a wider-than-expected trade gap.
According to the CNBC/Moody's Analytics rapid update, economists now see the sluggish growth pace based on already reported data, down from 1.4 percent last week. According to the rapid update, economists have a median forecast of 1.6 percent growth in first-quarter GDP, which includes their estimates for data not yet released.
"It's not a polar vortex winter. You can't blame the weather this year. It's the consumer. I think there's a problem with the measurement but at the end of the day if the world were as good as we'd hoped, people would feel better and it's not showing up," said Diane Swonk of DS Economics.
Personal income rose 0.2 percent in February, a tenth above expectations, and spending was up 0.1 percent. But revisions to January's spending data wiped out earlier solid gains and showed spending marginally higher — at 0.1 percent from an earlier 0.5 percent.
Fourth-quarter GDP growth was reported at 1.4 percent Friday, revised up from 1 percent.
Economists had been hopeful the first quarter would show a snapback with growth above 2 percent, and some have been optimistic that weak manufacturing was beginning to show signs of bottoming.
They note the size of the revision to consumer spending is rare.
"It's not falling off the cliff. We're not in a recession but it's consistent with worry," said Swonk.
The February trade gap widened by about a half-billion dollars to — $62.9 billion with both exports and imports higher than expected.
Swonk said she is now forecasting an annualized growth rate for the first quarter of 1 percent or slightly under, from 1.3 percent.
UNEXPECTED!
*Drink*
"There too little consoomin' goin' on 'round there!"
Another Obozo casualty - govt nums that used to be reliable now total bravo Sierra.
I like to spot bad choices for slogans or sales campaigns. Here is today’s positive spin:
“The economy? Its not falling off a cliff!”
On-line retailing is part of this.
When you don’t walk through a store, you are uninspired, don’t see new ideas, and don’t act impulsively.
Hence the economy contracts.
The only store I go to any longer is Costco, and routinely return with more than just essentials. But I never go to the mall, Lowes, Home Depot or even Trader Joes. I get specialty groceries from Amazon also.
What does the average consumer have left?
Weakest recovery ever, rising healthcare and insurance costs, stagnant to dropping wages, full time to part time....
And not to mention his credit cards and home equity is tapped out.
What do the Ivy League economists expect the consumer to do?
The only good thing to come out of this Obama presidency for us is it forced us to pay off everything and save like crazy.
Well, after Obama’s successful trip to Cuba, I’m sure the number of Tango Schools will skyrocket.
What a dipshirt we have for our President.
Exactly what sort of economic growth do they expect from a nation of waitresses and busboys? That’s what we’ve become, after all.
The only good thing to come out of this Obama presidency for us is it forced us to pay off everything and save like crazy.
Alot have.
That’s were the American consumer went.
All this talk and promises made by all candidates about jobs is moot until the Fedzilla is cut down to size and we get willing to make the needed, deep, spending cuts and bring down the debt.
In the short term, it will be painful. I just don’t think any candidate running would have the stomach to make real cuts that we need
agree
We are truly on our own and have been for a long time. The critters spend their days thinking of ways to pick our pockets.
From the article: “These GDP (numbers) make no sense. We can count jobs, and job growth is not at all consistent with measured GDP growth,” said the chief economist at Moody’s.
Can he be any more detached from the real world?
“new data showed surprising weakness in consumer spending and a wider-than-expected trade gap.”
Cue Donald Trump, stage right.
Ha Ha - unexpected my horsies hiney! And the stock market yawned and is a 20 points up at 3:50 PM on the day this news comes out added to a gunman at US Capitol and Bomb Squad checking a suspicious package in Times Square ( Which will have a 50 foot tall replica of a Baal Temple installed in April) which will bring a curse but who worries about such things...just another day in dull americaville while we await what ever apocalyptic is coming...
Freegards
LEX
On the other hand, it's not inconsistent with worry.
I love how economists and financial analysts talk. Do they teach that k kind of stuff at Harvard?
I just ordered new clothes and sandals for summer online. I can return what I don’t want or what doesn’t fit in store. I love Nordstroms Rack! My main store for clothing purchases for that reason.
Now I’m done til probably next summer since I have plenty of boots and sweaters for winter.
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