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Swim In Global Trade Wave, Or Drown
lens ^ | June 7, 2016 | Matt Rosenberg

Posted on 06/08/2016 8:30:19 AM PDT by expat_panama

Egged on by anti-trade Presidential candidates Bernie Sanders, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, primary election voters across the U.S. have been in an ugly mood toward global trade and particularly the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). At the same time, employers and business associations in Washington state, as elsewhere across the U.S., have voiced strong support for TPP. A recent Washington state poll for the Washington Council on International Trade (WCIT) by Elway Research showed majority support.

Swim In The Global Trade Wave, Or Drown

 

The future belongs to workers who develop higher-level, specialized skills. Here, NASA Community College Aerospace Scholars engage in a three-day workshop. Photo: NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

No Turning Back From Globalization

Yet some Members of Congress now say that due to the charged nature of current public dialog around free trade, a hoped-for vote to approve the measure shortly after November’s elections may not occur. If no vote occurs and TPP dies in the next administration, though, the harm will be palpable, according to a growing body of trade advocates and experts.

They assert there’s no turning back from the changes already wrought to our economy by globalization, specialization, and the behavior of consumers for whom price will always supersede nation of origin.

The TPP pact between the U.S. and 11 Asia-Pacific nations would cut more than 18,000 taxes levied on U.S. exports including key Washington state products such as salmon, wheat, paper, frozen french fries, cherries and hops. In the U.S. alone, TPP tariff reform would by 2032 boost annual real income $57 billion, annual real gross domestic product $42 billion, and annual exports to TPP partner nations $34 billion.

WCIT President Eric Schinfield says additional and meaty economic gains would accrue from other TPP provisions. These would improve intellectual property rights protections, boost cross-border data flows, and simplify trade rules.

Strong Support From Washington Business For TPP

Among 106 business and organizations urging Washington state’s Congressional delegation and U.S. Senators to back TPP in a recent letter were Boeing, Bellingham Marine, Darigold, the Northwest Food Processors Association, Washington Cattle Feeders Association, WCIT, Washington Farm Bureau, and Washington Retail Association.

Some 40 percent of Washington state’s jobs are tied to global trade. The recent poll for WCIT showed 54 percent of Washington voters supported TPP, 23 percent were opposed, and 21 percent undecided. National polls have also shown majority support.

However, hard-line opposition to the pact has dominated public dialog. Trump and Sanders in particular have fostered, among middle-aged working class primary election voters, environmentalists and social justice warriors, a growing and virulent opposition to TPP. It’s evident in online forums, the campaign trail, and the inboxes of Congress and the Senate.

“The first casualty” of “the protectionist bent of the 2016 Presidential campaign” could be TPP as primary-season blowback on the proposed pact “will make it even harder, if not impossible” for Congress to back the pact “even in a lame-duck session after the election,” reports Bloomberg News.

Although Clinton has now clinched the nomination, Sanders has been campaigning against TPP and the issue has picked up steam among protectionist Democrats and supporters of the presumptive Republican nominee Trump. As well, Clinton has pledged to continue her newfound opposition to TPP, which she helped President Obama promote as his Secretary of State.

TPP Congressional Hearings Likely In September

Others, including sources cited by the New York Times, say a TPP deal is still likely, although the required start of Congressional hearings on TPP in September will throw additional light on objections.

The President of the U.S.-China Business Council, John Frisbee, tells Bloomberg that either Clinton or Trump would as President ultimately shift their stance on TPP to help U.S. businesses expand their markets and grow jobs. The Council’s membership includes Amazon, Boeing, and Microsoft.

Consumer Savings Fuel Increased Spending Power

Less clear than the contours of the political imbroglio and the talking points trotted out by both sides, are the actual mechanics of how global trade benefits the U.S. economy, and the workers and households who make its gears move.

“The case for free trade is not obvious. The benefits…are dispersed and accrue over time, while the adjustment costs tend to be concentrated and immediate…We note and lament the effects of the clothing factory that shutters because it couldn’t compete with lower-priced imports. The lost factory jobs, the nearby businesses on Main Street that fail…are obvious. What is not so easily noticed is the increased spending power of the divorced mother who has to feed and clothe her three children. Not only can she buy cheaper clothing, but she has more resources to save or spend on other goods and services, which undergirds growth elsewhere in the economy,” writes Daniel J. Ikenson, Director of Cato Institute’s Center For Trade Policy Studies.

Ikenson adds that because iPhones are assembled at a far lower cost in China than in the U.S., that also makes them more ubiquitous and boosts “the emergence of spin-off industries” based on mobile apps like Uber and AirBnB. These fast-growing businesses in turn stimulate direct and indirect spending – benefiting a wide range of actors in regional economies globally.

Enough Capital, Fast Enough

That’s not to say that the long-unfolding shift of manufacturing jobs away from the U.S. to lower-cost nations, and job losses and flattened wages for some U.S workers, aren’t legitimate concerns. However, economies are by their nature dynamic. New opportunities replace those which are constricting, so long as enough capital can flow, fast enough.

Columbia University business school dean Glenn Hubbard and economist Tim Kane of the Hoover Institution at Stanford University argue that there are real, middle-class and working-class economic issues needing attention, but killing TPP isn’t the right course.

One smart move, they say, would be to pare back parts of the Dodd-Frank financial reform law. They says it leaves capital markets “hamstrung.”

Capital markets provide important economic and jobs stimulus through sales of equity investment shares in new and existing businesses, and through loans from banks and institutional investors to businesses and individuals.

Economic Advantages Of Global Specialization

Yuval Levin, founder and editor of National Affairs, writes in his new book The Fractured Republic, that “protectionist policies and tariffs…will always have a significant political constituency, but as a practical matter they are largely futile. The economic advantages of global specialization and trade are just too great.”

That’s exactly right. As the U.S. Congressional Research Service has explained, higher-level skills are becoming a requirement in the manufacturing sector, as more and more jobs there are about managerial aptitude rather than physical or rote labor. The forward march of highly competitive global pricing, specialization and automation also spells defining challenges for many other low-skilled workers.

Levin explains, “We are not likely to find ways to manufacture goods more cheaply than nations with far lower costs of living for workers. As a result, lower-skilled workers in our country will not often have a comparative advantage in producing goods that can be traded…We can, however, change the skill level of our population, and we can try to channel unskilled labor from manufacturing and production toward services that cannot so readily be outsourced.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: economy; investing; trade
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I can't remember this topic ever having been discussed on the FR, does anyone here have any opinions on this?
1 posted on 06/08/2016 8:30:19 AM PDT by expat_panama
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To: 1rudeboy; Mase; SAJ; 1010RD

y’all ever thought about this?


2 posted on 06/08/2016 8:31:30 AM PDT by expat_panama
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To: expat_panama

TPP will allow working people from all signing countries to move freely to all other signing countries. FREELY. Imagine what that means. This includes virtual working people, of course.

And China may join up.

Then there’s the pharma, international council of ‘rulers,’ ag, intellectual property....and on and on.

Global trade and business? How about dissolution of the US and abject poverty for us neo-feudal serfs.


3 posted on 06/08/2016 8:40:15 AM PDT by combat_boots (The Lion of Judah cometh. Hallelujah. Gloria Patri, Filio et Spiritui Sancto!)
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To: expat_panama
The future belongs to workers who develop higher-level, specialized skills. Here, NASA Community College Aerospace Scholars engage in a three-day workshop.

Any skill that can be learned in three days sounds like something that would pay less than even H-1B wages.

4 posted on 06/08/2016 8:40:46 AM PDT by snarkpup (Socialism causes the worst people to become in charge - if they aren't already.)
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To: snarkpup

[NASA Community College Aerospace Scholars engage in a three-day workshop]

It must be a cultural re-education workshop.


5 posted on 06/08/2016 8:53:53 AM PDT by stars & stripes forever (Blessed is the nation whose God is the Lord. Psalm 33:12)
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To: combat_boots
TPP will allow working people from all signing countries to move freely to all other signing countries

Whoa, that's important.  Please, this is the full text of the TPP and you have got to show me exactly where it says that so I can write my congressman and maybe we can stop this before it's too late.

6 posted on 06/08/2016 8:54:30 AM PDT by expat_panama
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To: expat_panama

Yes, and I’m ambivalent about the idea. Are all decisions to be based on purely economic outcomes? Are there other values that should be considered, such as protecting our own citizens? What about all the cheap crap that China is foisting on us? It’s gotten so that US consumers have no idea what they are buying, whether it’s tainted dog treats or wood floors packed with carcinogens. What happens when all the US manufacturers close up shop and we have no alternatives but foreign made goods? What are the safeguards for our citizens?
Oh, I know. We will all open our own cupcake shops or bow tie stores like those ridiculous commercials on television.

On the other hand, globalization may be inevitable. The book, The Sovereign Individual by Davidson and Rees-Mogg, paints a picture of a future of a global economy and massive disruption with large nation states cracking up. We may be seeing this already. There will also be fewer ways for unskilled and low-skilled people to earn a living. In the future, nobody is going to be paid $35 an hour with benefits for lowering windshields onto vehicles. Those days are long gone. There is the potential for a lot of unrest. As the old Chinese curse says, we are living in interesting times.

(The book is fascinating, in spite of the screwy title.)


7 posted on 06/08/2016 8:56:27 AM PDT by Pining_4_TX (All those who were appointed to eternal life believed. Acts 13:48)
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To: expat_panama

I can’t see how anyone could oppose the east asia co prosperity sphere./s


8 posted on 06/08/2016 8:59:01 AM PDT by DesertRhino ("I want those feeble minded asses overthrown,,,")
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To: expat_panama

“According to Morris, the TPP “contains a barely noticed provision that allows for the free migration of labor among the signatory nations.” Indeed, that element is actually patterned after similar provisions in the treaties foisted on European peoples to destroy national sovereignty and impose the unaccountable super-state now known as the European Union. The provision on immigration, Morris said, “would override national immigration restrictions in the name of facilitating free flow of labor.” That could “easily be interpreted” as “allowing farm workers and others to flow back and forth without legal regulation,” he added.

Aside from the open borders component, it would also be a massive blow to the U.S. Constitution. “The treaty could lead to the effective repeal of the specifically enumerated power granted to Congress in Article I of the Constitution to regulate immigration and naturalization,” Morris said. “While the treaty is still being negotiated, the current focus on white-collar immigration [is] sufficiently elastic to allow open borders.”

http://www.thenewamerican.com/usnews/immigration/item/20710-obama-gop-trade-scheme-includes-unrestricted-immigration

Now, just where this statement is glossed over in the text, I don’t know. I thought it was still under lock and key. Is the entire document at your link, or is some still secret?


9 posted on 06/08/2016 9:03:11 AM PDT by combat_boots (The Lion of Judah cometh. Hallelujah. Gloria Patri, Filio et Spiritui Sancto!)
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To: expat_panama

I’ve tried to avoid this subject simply because there is so much misinformation and emotion surrounding it that a rational discussion based on the facts is impossible. Whenever a trade deal - regardless of the merits - devolves into accusations that reducing taxes and barriers to trade is akin to open borders and unfettered illegal immigration, it’s far better to go outside and play basketball with the kids.


10 posted on 06/08/2016 9:05:23 AM PDT by Mase (Save me from the people who would save me from myself!)
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To: expat_panama
Also see the appendices that specifically deal with 'Temporary Entry"

Temporary Entry for Business Persons l Chapter Summary

http://tpp.mfat.govt.nz/text https://ustr.gov/trade-agreements/free-trade-agreements/trans-pacific-partnership/tpp-full-text

It looks to be Appendix 12. I'll wager that's not all. Consider all the working programs...H1B, L1, H2, 'Student,' etc.

11 posted on 06/08/2016 9:12:24 AM PDT by combat_boots (The Lion of Judah cometh. Hallelujah. Gloria Patri, Filio et Spiritui Sancto!)
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To: expat_panama
does anyone here have any opinions on this?

I have questions, not opinions.

Why do we have to have some 9000 page bill restricting and structuring 'free trade' between nations ?

Why call it 'free trade' when it will be nothing of the sort ?

12 posted on 06/08/2016 9:19:30 AM PDT by UCANSEE2 (Lost my tagline on Flight MH370. Sorry for the inconvenience.)
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To: expat_panama
The future belongs to workers who develop higher-level, specialized skills. Here, NASA Community College Aerospace Scholars engage in a three-day workshop... playing with LEGOS and making PIPE CLEANER NECKLACES.


13 posted on 06/08/2016 9:21:53 AM PDT by UCANSEE2 (Lost my tagline on Flight MH370. Sorry for the inconvenience.)
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To: combat_boots

Sovereignty Snuffing


14 posted on 06/08/2016 9:32:06 AM PDT by Ray76 (The evil effect of Obergefell is to deprive the people of rule of law & subject us to tyranny!)
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To: Mase
...reducing taxes and barriers to trade is akin to open borders and unfettered illegal immigration, it’s far better to go outside...

That's how this thread's going.  For me what this all boils down to is--

No wonder the Humanists have so few members...

15 posted on 06/08/2016 11:41:15 AM PDT by expat_panama
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To: combat_boots
in the text, I don’t know.

Ah.  Somehow I was hoping for an actual quote that said "allow working people from all signing countries to move freely to all other signing countries".  If that's not in there (or at least something that clearly says the same thing) then I can't use it to complain to my lawmakers.

I thought it was still under lock and key. Is the entire document at your link, or is some still secret?

It's what everyone in the trade office says we got, but if they're secretly hiding something then nobody would ever know --not even the foreigners wanting to 'move freely'-- so then it wouldn't be a problem. 

16 posted on 06/08/2016 11:52:24 AM PDT by expat_panama
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To: Pining_4_TX
Are all decisions to be based on purely economic outcomes? Are there other values that should be considered, such as protecting our own citizens?

Some how I didn't see the part in the article where the writer said "we need TPP because of economic outcomes alone and to hell with protecting U.S. citizens."   

fwiw, over the centuries the nations that amassed the most wealth though trade with other countries ended up being the most powerful and having the happiest citizens.

17 posted on 06/08/2016 12:03:52 PM PDT by expat_panama
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To: expat_panama

Those Nations had borders though.


18 posted on 06/08/2016 12:05:33 PM PDT by The Toll
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To: expat_panama
Please see the PDFs on temporary entry.

VietNam example:

A. Service Sales Persons Viet Nam extends its commitments under this category to all Parties that have made commitments under the headings of:

 Business Visitors

 Service Sales Persons

B. Intra-Corporate Transferees

1. Viet Nam extends its commitments under this category to all Parties that have made commitments under the heading of:

 Intra-Corporate Transferees

2. Viet Nam shall grant temporary entry to Intra-Corporate Transferees, as defined below, working in services sectors and sub-sectors if Viet Nam undertook commitments in the WTO (WT/ACC/VNM/48/

Add. 2) without requiring these business persons to obtain a work permit or an equivalent requirement as a condition of temporary entry.

3. Viet Nam may, upon application, grant the right of temporary entry to the accompanying spouse or dependents of an Intra-Corporate Transferee of another Party.

4. Upon application, Intra-Corporate Transferees and, if relevant, their spouses and dependents may be issued with temporary residence cards, or equivalent multiple entry rights.

C. Persons Responsible for Setting up a Commercial Presence

1. Viet Nam extends its commitments under this category to all Parties that have made commitments under the headings of:

 Independent Executives

 Other Personnel

 Persons Responsible for Setting Up a Commercial Presence

 Investors

2. Viet Nam may, upon application, grant the right of entry to the accompanying spouse or dependents of a Person responsible for Setting up a Commercial Presence of another Party.

3. Upon application, Persons responsible for Setting up a Commercial Presence and, if relevant, their spouses and dependents may be issued with temporary residence cards, or equivalent multiple entry rights.

E. Other Personnel

Viet Nam extends its commitments under this category to all Parties that have made commitments under the headings of:

 Independent Executives

 Other Personnel

 Persons Responsible for Setting Up a Commercial Presence

 Investors

E. Contractual Service Suppliers (CSS)

1. Viet Nam extends its commitments under this category to all Parties that have made commitments under the headings of:

 Contractual Service Suppliers

 Independent Professionals

 Installers/Servicers

 Professionals

2. Viet Nam may, upon application, grant the right of temporary entry to the accompanying spouse or dependents of a Contractual Service Supplier of another Party.

3. Upon application, Contractual Service Suppliers and, if relevant, their spouses and dependents may be issued with temporary residence cards, or equivalent multiple entry rights.

19 posted on 06/08/2016 12:22:39 PM PDT by combat_boots (The Lion of Judah cometh. Hallelujah. Gloria Patri, Filio et Spiritui Sancto!)
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To: The Toll
Those Nations had borders though.

Not sure what we're talking about, the only time the article mentioned borders was w/  "TPP provisions...   ...would improve intellectual property rights protections, boost cross-border data flows, and simplify trade rules" and we couldn't have 'cross-border' trade unless we had borders.

20 posted on 06/08/2016 12:26:28 PM PDT by expat_panama
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