Skip to comments.Trump may still be “Going Red” in bellwether counties
Posted on 06/18/2016 11:35:31 AM PDT by Hojczyk
A couple of weeks ago we got the first hint of what was going on in these locales from Axiom Strategies. Even as his national numbers were sinking, Trump was holding on pretty well in those counties. Now theyve gone even deeper into this particular geographic analysis, and as Politico Reports, Hillary Clinton has a fight on her hands that shes currently losing.
Axiom identified seven counties in seven battleground states that have proved to be bellwethers in the past four elections. Trump, so far, has an edge in four of them, Hillary Clinton has an edge in two, and theyre statistically tied in one. The selected counties correctly predicted the statewide result in each of the past four elections and came closest to the actual statewide margin of victory.
The counties where Trump is ahead include Watauga County, North Carolina (+4); Sandusky County, Ohio (+5); Luzerne County, Pennsylvania (+17); and Washoe County, Nevada (+12).
Clinton, on the other hand, holds modest leads in Jefferson County, Colorado (+4), and Loudoun County, Virginia (+8).
The two are statistically tied in Tampas Hillsborough County, Florida
These are some of the same counties where Ed conducted most of his interviews and, at least for now, Trump is carrying the day. This brings up an interesting question to consider for the November elections. We should start by reminding ourselves that all of these poll numbers can and mostly likely will change a dozen times over the course of the summer, but if they held anywhere near what were seeing today, this could be an historic election in a very different way from the one Hillary Clinton is picturing.
(Excerpt) Read more at hotair.com ...
About those national polls. One was done by the anti-gun Bloomberg. The other had the Washington Post involved who hates Trump and is coming up with all kinds of BS stories about Trump. That is all one needs to know.
New voter registration is where I expect to see Trump’s fate.
If the normal electorate turns out Clinton will win.
Remember Reagan 1980 ..
polls had him losing till the last few days
the media did not want to look like fools after the election
they tried real had to elect Carter
Follow the betting lines, not the polls.
Punters tend to be a lot more dispassionate than pollsters and pundits.
Luzerne County, Pennsylvania (+17) wow very significant
I don’t know, it seems like the nation is rallying around 0bama and his call to ban guns. More people are seeing Orlando as an isolated attack and not an Islamic attack. I just feels like there is a growing backlash against Trump and people say he is the one politicizing the attack.
We have to realize, Americans are very stupid people now. The embrace whats hip and cool in pop culture over what is right. Social Media is very much to blame for that.
Trump has energy and boldness in his favor...which translates to health and whether you think things are good now. Hillary is status quo and her health...well? Hillary needs to make people think that Trump is dangerous and that we are endangering the good things and good times we have now.
If people fear being attacked or fear for their jobs and their income, if they feel as if they need to take a risk to improve conditions, the Trump wins. If they are happier keep things moving the way they are...Clinton wins.
Possible, but Trump is trending up in Ipsos Reuters & Gravis polls this weekend.
Betters favor Hillary.
They favored Jeb, too - until he lost.
He seemed like the safe bet.
Online polls are BS. Registered voter (or “general public”) polls are BS. Polls which don’t account for the huge enthusiasm gap between the right and the left are BS (almost all polls, at this point.)
Don’t believe those bull$hit polls, he’s moving up not down. He draws thousands while she sleeps and disappears from lack of energy. Maybe she is taking lessons on how to be liked.
Attributed to the work of Manafort.
I’m familiar with Luzerne County. I have family and friends in the Wilkes-Barre area.
Obama won Luzerne County by 52-47% in 2012, and carried Pennsylvania by almost the exact same margin. So if a bellwether county such as Luzerne shows Trump doing so well, watch out, Hillary and Democrats...........
Just give it time, he has not even begun to start on her yet. He was going to last Monday but instead he gave that tremendous speech on the Orlando radical Islamic terrorist mass murder. Once he gets started, there will be no hope for Hitlery.
Absolutely right: Trump trailed in all those betting sites, . . till he won
Y’know, the Trump campaign could commission some polls if they wanted and publish them.
IMO Trump should concentrate on the handful of states which Romney narrowly won and lost in ‘12.If he does that he can hit 270.
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