Posted on 08/29/2016 2:40:05 AM PDT by Ken H
Latest release
(Excerpt) Read more at cesrusc.org ...
Trump back on top!
Such a back-and-forth with this one. It would be great if Trump could just start pulling away to a 3-4 point spread here so we. Could watch the media go into a bigger meltdown.
Yep. And she has a couple of good days that will fall of the 7 day roll starting tomorrow. Lead could expand this week.
Of note, still no positive movement among black voters in this poll.
Emerson college Twitter:
-—————Clinton-——Trump-——Johnson——Stein
PA-—————46-————43-————7-————2
Ohio-————43-————43-————10————2
Michigan-——45-————40-————7-————3
I’m guessing she is only doing well in places like Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Cleveland, and Detroit and other larger urban areas and that is what makes up her numbers that are either tied or just a bit ahead of Trump at this stage.
I accept that the popular vote is virtually tied. However, I am afraid that Clinton is leading in the electoral vote, which is what counts.
I have a difficult time believing those Johnson numbers
The problem is he needs Penn. and we know the voter fraud that comes from Philly always puts them over the top. I think he wins Ohio and Fl but we always get excited about Penn then the fraud kicks in
Nate Silver’s web site had an article a few days back bashing this poll.
Used to be conventional wisdom that if a candidate led by 1 to 2 points in the popular vote, he/she would be poised to win the electoral college as well. Not sure if that is the case any longer as demographics have changed.
The path to victory for a Republican is so much narrower than it used to be.
Since when did it become a national election? We need to look at electoral college...
Very good numbers since they are using 2012 models.
Of course little (Always wrong) Natey did. Oh he may “explain” later shy he was wrong, but by then he’s off to the next wrong prediction. Getting to be like Zogby was.
And Zogs may be making a comeback.
There is a reality here: a D can win the popular vote due to CA,NY, and IL and lose the electoral vote.
That is pretty much impossible for an R. So a good measure of the electoral college IS the national vote because no Republican since the 1800s has lost the popular vote and won the election.
I believe W won without the popular vote vs. Gore.
True. Under 1m, but many people think the “early call” of FL for Gore cost Bush big. Bob Beckel said he thought it cost 1m votes nationally.
Funny.
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