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Electoral Mapmaking
The Weekly Standard ^ | Oct 03, 2016 | Jeffrey H. Anderson

Posted on 09/23/2016 7:53:58 AM PDT by monkapotamus

Five paths to victory for Trump.

If Trump wins Virginia, then he almost surely isn't going to lose Florida or North Carolina (both of which are noticeably to Virginia's right), almost surely isn't going to lose populist Iowa (where polls suggest he is faring about 5 points better than he is nationally), and isn't likely to lose Ohio (which is a bit to the right of Virginia and shows him polling better). The combination of these states would give him 272 electoral votes.

During the week of September 4-10, Trump smartly spent $2.2 million in Virginia—double what he spent in any other state—according to AP. Clinton, meanwhile, spent $0, choosing instead to waste money in Arizona and Georgia, where she isn't going to win and doesn't need to win...

If Trump wins his must-win states, plus Michigan and Iowa, he would have 275 electoral votes...

(Excerpt) Read more at weeklystandard.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: trump
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1 posted on 09/23/2016 7:53:59 AM PDT by monkapotamus
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To: monkapotamus

When they play the race card, play the Trump card.


2 posted on 09/23/2016 7:56:16 AM PDT by sparklite2 (When they play the race card, play the Trump card.)
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To: monkapotamus

I don’t understand why Trump isn’t putting some good ads up. I only see an occasional Trump ad in Florida.

So many negative ads from Hillary and other PAC’s that paint him as a nasty nut.

There is just no margin of error.


3 posted on 09/23/2016 7:56:59 AM PDT by Trumplican
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To: monkapotamus

I seriously doubt Trump wins Wisconsin. I believe he has a much better chance in PA.


4 posted on 09/23/2016 7:57:43 AM PDT by boycott (--s)
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To: monkapotamus

With him six points down in Illinois I would to see him rally in the north part of the state to hopefully bring people from WI over.

A lot of time must be spent in CO and NH


5 posted on 09/23/2016 8:00:01 AM PDT by Sybeck1 (Remember the Court)
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To: sparklite2

I would like a deck of cards with all the spades sporting the trump profile.


6 posted on 09/23/2016 8:01:22 AM PDT by going hot (Happiness is a Momma Deuce)
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To: Trumplican

Why waste money on TV ads when everyone has a remote with fast forward. There are more productive uses of the resources. Let Hillary enrich her MSM moguls. What she spends is essentially money laundering anyway.


7 posted on 09/23/2016 8:03:12 AM PDT by wastoute (Government cannot redistribute wealth. Government can only redistribute poverty.)
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To: monkapotamus

He can lose VA and win CO/IA and win.


8 posted on 09/23/2016 8:04:29 AM PDT by MNJohnnie ( Tyranny, like Hell, is not easily conquered)
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To: Trumplican
I couldn't agree more... ads work. He's at 35-40% approval nationally, thanks to $145mm in ads and non-stop media bombardment

Wish he would use every resource he has to increase his positives and drag down Hillary further..

9 posted on 09/23/2016 8:06:27 AM PDT by NYC-RepublicanCT (Trump vs Media/Dems/Obamas/NeverTrumpers. Still winning!!!)
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To: MNJohnnie

Iowa is in the bag. So is Nevada... his best paths are CO or NH... with those, he doesn’t need VA (assuming he holds FL and OH)


10 posted on 09/23/2016 8:08:00 AM PDT by NYC-RepublicanCT (Trump vs Media/Dems/Obamas/NeverTrumpers. Still winning!!!)
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To: monkapotamus
Hillary is running ads in Maryland ... MARYLAND !!!

I was watching a ball game the other night when her ad came on ... not a superpac ... but an ad from her campaign.

If there is internal polling that makes her spend money in Maryland ... then this is going to be a slaughtering.

11 posted on 09/23/2016 8:09:32 AM PDT by dartuser
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To: wastoute

Ads work my friend.... Trump is a solid candidate and a great American businessman... the ads and disgusting media are mainly why he’s at less than 40% approval


12 posted on 09/23/2016 8:09:39 AM PDT by NYC-RepublicanCT (Trump vs Media/Dems/Obamas/NeverTrumpers. Still winning!!!)
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To: dartuser

She’s up by 33% in MD.. no poll will show it as competitive.. perhaps trying to penetrate neighboring states?


13 posted on 09/23/2016 8:11:08 AM PDT by NYC-RepublicanCT (Trump vs Media/Dems/Obamas/NeverTrumpers. Still winning!!!)
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To: MNJohnnie

Assuming Trump wins Romney’s states and flips FL and OH, CO and IA puts him at 268. Maine’s 2nd CD makes it a tie. I don’t trust Congress and there could be a faithless elector. He needs one more. Nevada would take him over the top.


14 posted on 09/23/2016 8:11:42 AM PDT by dixie1202
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To: wastoute
Why waste money on TV ads when everyone has a remote with fast forward.

If I were a supporter of HRC, I would still be sick to death of the negative-Trump ads coming, not from PACs, but directly from her campaign. It would be somewhat supportive, however, to see a few pro-Trump ads, a 2016 version of the "morning in America" theme.

15 posted on 09/23/2016 8:12:39 AM PDT by chajin ("There is no other name under heaven given among people by which we must be saved." Acts 4:12)
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To: chajin

BINGO!


16 posted on 09/23/2016 8:16:25 AM PDT by NYC-RepublicanCT (Trump vs Media/Dems/Obamas/NeverTrumpers. Still winning!!!)
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To: NYC-RepublicanCT

How can an ad no one watches work? The only ads I don’t fast forward through are the NRA ones but I am a life member, they aren’t selling me I just love them. With the fast forward button right under the thumb who is going to stop and watch a Trump add that is not already sold. Their are other, better ways to reach that person and I am sure Trump knows it and is doing it.


17 posted on 09/23/2016 8:18:54 AM PDT by wastoute (Government cannot redistribute wealth. Government can only redistribute poverty.)
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To: monkapotamus

He won’t need Michigan, Virginia or Pennsylvania if he takes Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, Nevada and Colorado. He can also eek across the finish line without Colorado if he picks up New Hampshire and that one bonus EV in Maine.


18 posted on 09/23/2016 8:19:45 AM PDT by OrangeHoof ("If you cain't run yo own house, you cain't run da White House. Cain't do it." - Michelle Obama)
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To: dixie1202

He’s ahead in every recent poll in NV.. you can add those 6 votes to his tally.. I agree re 269-269.. in an EV tie, Hillary would likely be ahead in the popular vote thanks to NY and Cali. Who here thinks the Repubs would choose Trump? No way. They would cave and put her in


19 posted on 09/23/2016 8:21:26 AM PDT by NYC-RepublicanCT (Trump vs Media/Dems/Obamas/NeverTrumpers. Still winning!!!)
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To: wastoute

We’all agree to disagree . But how do you explain a great American like Trump being at 35% approval, and tied with a disgusting, lying, treacherous sickly toad like her?


20 posted on 09/23/2016 8:25:13 AM PDT by NYC-RepublicanCT (Trump vs Media/Dems/Obamas/NeverTrumpers. Still winning!!!)
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