Posted on 10/02/2016 1:30:17 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too
Florida was the biggest loss for Trump this week. He needs to reestablish his position there, falling from a 52.8% probability to 30.9% chance of winning the state.
Trump also took a big hit in Colorado, falling from a 57.6% chance of winning to 46.3%.
Nevada is another state where Trump's solid lead (74.1% last week) fell to 48.1%.
North Carolina is also still a Toss-Up, having pushed towards Trump last week but falling back again this week.
New Mexico flipped the most to Clinton, but polling here was always suspect. Trump's lead until now may have been a mirage due to lack of credible polling in the past.
And finally, Pennsylvania is a state where people have high hopes, but so far, polling is not bearing it out. It's true that Trump's chances are improving here from 12.2% to 21.6%, but that's too far away at this point in the race to be counting on a complete reversal unless something drastic happens in the race or in polling rigor.
-PJ
Not a good week for Trump. His work is cut out for him. He really needs to rethink his approach to the next debate a week from today.
As always, comments/feedback is always welcome.
Let me know if you want on or off the ping list.
-PJ
I have Trump solidifying 272. Pretty damn good week. He got FL and OH this week.
Agreed.. not a good week, but there’s still time.. that is, if he stops with the “Romney nice guy” performance and blankets the airwaves with ads ALREADY!!!!
good number crunching
my question is ‘if Crooked is doing so poorly in must-win demographics how can she be ahead ?’
for example:
Blacks, she must win 90-95% and is barely getting 75%
under 30s, she must win 70-75% and is barely getting 55%
Please add me. Thanks
I ask you... how long can the pollsters go reporting polls opposite to what the on-the-ground observations suggest?
I agree with you that Ohio looks solid for Trump, and the polls bear that out, but I cannot say the same thing for Florida based on the polls. Even statespoll.com adjustments (not comprehensive of Florida polls) has it at a 51%-49% chance for Trump.
If I ONLY include the statespoll.com adjusted polls (and ignore the polls not looked at), then Florida is 74%-26% probability for Trump. But I don't want to fall into an omission bias, either.
-PJ
I put no stick in polls. I know, 2012.
This time I think they go to the mat because they ALL are done when Trump wins.
Again I don’t look at polls, I look at absentees and early votes. Those are 180 degrees opposite the polls. She is already behind in FL 47-33. Not a lot of votes but real votes, not polls. She’s behind 145,000 in absentee requests with ONE QUARTER of all GOP ballots already. No, FL is gone.
Now, NV gone. I will post later on this.
Blacks, she must win 90-95% and is barely getting 75%
African-Americans are about 16% of the total population. This is concentrated in the major cities. As long as those cities are in traditionally Democrat states, it's possible that there are still enough votes in those dense Democrat states to sustain winning the state.
under 30s, she must win 70-75% and is barely getting 55%
Are they filtering out as not "likely voters?" Are they not sufficiently represented in polling due to predominantly cell-phone use? If these were Sanders supporters, they may choose to stay home rather than vote for Trump.
-PJ
In 2012, Romney peaked at 45% probability of winning in the final week, and that was using my old techniques.
In 2008, my earliest model had McCain peaking at 62.5% chance of winning in mid-September with 275 EV, but that turned out to be a "Palin bounce" coming out of the convention, something that McCain could not sustain.
Bottom line... I rely on readers like you to point out where observations conflict with polling. I won't change the results based on personal observation, but will point out where polling seems at odds with a preponderance of personal observations, or where polling seems stuck on a narrative at odds with personal observations.
-PJ
I trust that come Nov. 8, 2016 the clinton caliphate will be defeted.
-PJ
“Trump ... really needs to rethink his approach to the next debate a week from today.”
I concur. Ignore the war on women, tax, and personal questions. Hammer Madame Mao on trade deals, immigration, loss of jobs, foreign policy failures, and corruption. Non-stop.
My current guess:
My 270 to Win puts Trump at 270 and Hillary at 268. Way too close for comfort. If Trump takes FL and OH, then it's CO, IA, NC, NV and NM deciding in my estimation. Man o' man. . . The whole future of the nation, whether our Sacred Republic lives or dies, decided by 2 or 3 states. . Sounds like the Supreme Court.
Every vote counts. Get out the Vote!
-PJ
A link to statespoll that works: http://statespoll.com/
About that PPP poll...
They asked whom the respondents voted for in 2012.
Here’s the ‘overage’ of the poll results above the actual vote for Obama:
Virginia +3%
Penn +4.5%
Colo +1%
Florida +4%
NC +4%
Three of of those are outside the professed MOE of the poll!
So I REALLY discount it.
I don’t think Trump lost votes in the debate, but he may jave lost some momentum. No way to tell.
You guys might enjoy this:
http://www.buenosairesherald.com/article/222172/colombians-expected-to-say-%E2%80%98yes%E2%80%99-to-peace
“ According to two opinion polls released yesterday, Colombian voters will approve the government’s peace deal with Marxist FARC rebels in Sunday’s plebiscite, ratifying an end to more than 52 years of war.
One survey, conducted by polling firm Ipsos on behalf of local media RCN Radio, RCN Television, La FM radio and Semana magazine, showed 66 percent of those voting would approve the deal, while 34 percent would vote against it. Another poll by Datexco, published by newspaper El Tiempo and W Radio, estimated that 55 percent of Colombians will vote “yes” in the referendum and 36.6 percent will vote “no.” “
“NO” won LOL!
There’s something serious wrong with polling these days.
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