Posted on 10/16/2016 10:09:12 AM PDT by GilGil
It seems that these polls are to be “self fulfilling prophecies”.
The more the people see them like this the more they are to believe them and will vote that way. E.g. people want to vote for a winner and might change their vote so they feel they voted for a winner.
This is the insidiousness of these “polls”.
I know, lots of polls out there. Easy to get confused
Separately PPD tracking poll just out for today. Slight change downward... Trump was up 1.8 yesterday, up 1.6 today. Statistical noise
I’ve never understood why polling is so complex, requiring algorithms of einsteinian length and complexity. Could someone please conduct a poll either completely randomly or one where Ds = Rs ?
Now examine why Hillary Clinton wants John Podesta as not only her campaign manger, but also as her chief of staff, should she be elected.
John Podesta is not a Democrat/Progressive, he is this; (Communist Tactician Podesta to Obama: Ignore Voters & Congress – abuse Executive Powers)....DOES ANYONE CARE THAT HILLARY HAS THIS ANTI-CONSTITUTION, ANTI-FREEDOM, ANTI-CAPITALIST, AS HER CAMPAIGN MANAGER AND WANTS HIM AS HER CHIEF OF STAFF IN A CLINTON WHITE HOUSE.....Wake up America.....pray Trump wins.
Nah. Trump is up about 7.4% in the internal pols. Hence the panic by the Dems and LSM.
Yep, that is exactly what it is.
.
“How can they sample 18.9% more democrats and make this poll credible?”
It’s completely credible.
They’re telling you their margin of vote fraud.
Disbelieve this at your peril.
Yup
I’m betting that if the polling were more representative of the general population, she would still have a slim lead. There was some of the “poll-bias” talk going around in 2012, questioning why the polls favored 0bama over Romney. Well, you know the results of that election. The polls were right.
The closest poll to an even split right now is WashPost/ABC... this has historically been heavily skewed to the Dems, but today’s poll is D+2. In that poll, 4 way race, she’s up by 4.... I don’t think you’ll see a better D/R split from the media than D+2
The Republicans are bigger scum.
They have no intention of following through with their rhetoric. They just use it as a vehicle to get elected and put their kids through college.
They ostensibly hate Trump because he isn’t one of the political class. But they hate the prospect of him winning because he puts them on the spot to vote for all sorts of things they promised but that they’d never imagine they’d have to actually enact.
They can’t defend their records. They are trying to stand on principle against Mr Trump, but the fact is if they were truly principled they would have stood up to Obama and Dubya many times over. They didn’t. Principle is one of the last refuges of a scoundrel.
She’s getting slaughtered.
Nah. Trump is up about 7.4% in the internal pols. Hence the panic by the Dems and LSM.
_________________
Agreed!
Yup. A classic “push poll.”
Pollsters want to live and/or be enriched so pollsters lie.
She does not have a lead in the USC poll and the Rassmussen poll.
Just out of curiosity why is it always 11%, why not 12 or 10.
QF4 Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Democrat, a Republican, an independent, or something
else? (IF “DEMOCRAT” OR “REPUBLICAN,” ASK:) Would you call yourself a strong (Democrat/Republican)
or not a very strong (Democrat/Republican)? (IF “NOT SURE,” CODE AS “NOT VERY STRONG
DEMOCRAT/REPUBLICAN.”) (IF “INDEPENDENT,” ASK:) Do you think of yourself as closer to the
Republican Party, closer to the Democratic Party, or do you think of yourself as strictly independent? (IF
“NOT SURE,” CODE AS “STRICTLY INDEPENDENT.”) +
Strong Democrat
...............................
26
Not very strong Democrat
.................
9
Independent/lean Democrat
..............
9
Strictly Independent
...........................
13
Independent/lean Republican
............
11
Not very strong Republican
...............
7
Strong Republican
.............................
19
Other (VOL) ................................
.....
4
Not sure ................................
...........
2
+ Results shown reflect responses among
registered vo
After years and years of folks looking at the R/D/I splits in terms of D+x, the past few weeks people have started using this stat.
In 2002- was the gap between D (38) and R (32) a 6% gap.. I haven’t seen any of you saying that 19% more Dems than Repubs voted. Would you say it was 6% more or 19% more. If 19%, than this lol is 19%, and they are using close to the model used in ‘12 (you cam dispute the turnout model, but not the numbers)
If you want to compare apples to oranges, and say the gap was 6% last time and 19% this time, feel free. Whatever makes you feel good inside
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