Florida Absentee Ballot update, 10/21/2016

10/21/2016 | self

[SpeedyInTexas]

Here are the RETURNED Florida Absentee Ballot numbers for 2016 (REPs led in this category by 79,000 in 2012). Approximately 32.1% of Absentee Ballots have been returned at this point.

10/21/16: REPs - 416,778, DEMs - 399,434 lead of 17,344 for REPs, 41.8% to 40.0%

10/20/16: REPs - 369,467, DEMs - 356,635 lead of 12,832 for REPs, 41.7% to 40.2%

10/19/16: REPs - 316,400, DEMs - 305,626 lead of 10,774 for REPs, 41.7% to 40.3%

10/18/16: REPs - 265,657, DEMs - 259,824 lead of 5,833 for REPs, 41.5% to 40.6%

10/17/16: REPs - 210,629, DEMs - 210,595 lead of 34 for REPs, 41.07% to 41.06%

10/16/16: REPs - 198,674, DEMs - 193,610 lead of 5,064 for REPs, 41.5% to 40.5%

10/15/16: REPs - 169,862, DEMs - 163,598 lead of 6,264 for REPs, 41.8% to 40.3%

10/14/16: REPs - 130,758, DEMs - 124,773 lead of 5,985 for REPs, 42.0% to 40.1%

For Hillsborough [battleground/swing county] (DEMs had a lead of 20,000 in 2012 early voting - that's absentee ballots plus in-person early voting):

10/21/16: REPs - 28,710, DEMs - 33,635, lead of 4,925 for DEMs

10/20/16: REPs - 26,515, DEMs - 31,311, lead of 4,796 for DEMs

10/19/16: REPs - 23,905, DEMs - 28,411, lead of 4,506 for DEMs

10/18/16: REPs - 18,585, DEMs - 22,338, lead of 3,753 for DEMs

10/17/16: REPs - 16,642, DEMs - 20,073, lead of 3,431 for DEMs

10/16/16: REPs - 16,642, DEMs - 20,073, lead of 3,431 for DEMs

10/15/16: REPs - 16,643, DEMs - 20,073, lead of 3,430 for DEMs

10/14/16: REPs - 12,937, DEMs - 15,764, lead of 2,827 for DEMs

[SpeedyInTexas]

So far in 2016, 33.7% of REP ballots have been returned and 32.6% of DEM ballots have been returned.

Lets assume about 80% of absentee ballots are returned and assume REP lead by 3%, say 43% to 40% with the rest Independents/Other.

3,102,040 total absentee ballots mailed as of today

2,481,632 total returned (3,102,040 * 0.8)

1,067,101 - REP 43% (2,481,632 * .43)

992,652 - DEM 40% (2,481,632 * 0.40)

74,449 REP Lead Predicted

[SpeedyInTexas]

ping

[JamesP81]

Trended well a couple of days in a row. Let’s hope it continues.

[ScaniaBoy]

I like the trend. The percentage of D:s has dropped the last 5 days.

[SpeedyInTexas]

The REP margin over DEM right now is 1.8% (41.8 - 40). I do think that gap can widen to 3%. In the end, the REP lead over DEM from absentee ballots is probably going to be in the ball park of 4 years ago. But, that would be with a much larger number of absentee ballots submitted. I think that is positive for Trump.

[dp0622]

I thought I read that the repubs have to be up by 110,000 in order to counter the dem voting day advantage.

I could be very wrong.

So many numbers being thrown around these days.

I apologize if i am.

[usafa92]

I get the apples to apples comparison on 2012 to 2016, but I don’t think we can discount that the narrower margin may very well be Democrats who are voting for Trump.

[goldstategop]

Ds aren’t going to turn out anywhere near the numbers all the polls are projecting.

Possible there could be a hidden Hillary surge we haven’t seen.

In the next ten days the picture should become a lot clearer.

If it doesn’t materialize, Trump chance of win goes up significantly.

For the moment, the trend as has been the case for the past two months, remains our friend

[wright2bear]

dp0622 - I believe considering that Obummer only won the state by 73K votes in 2012, we can win Florida. I can’t imagine Hill getting as many votes as Obummer. And I would also believe that Trump is way more popular than Romney ever was in Florida.

[dp0622]

He’s been down only one day in the LA Times out of the past thirty, i think, and that was by like .1 percent.

Someone said yesterday would be the last bad drop off day ad he picked up .1 percent while she stayed the same.

But you’re right. Turnout is everything!

[dp0622]

I agree across the board.

[UKrepublican]

I agree, by end of next week, a picture should start emerging.

[dp0622]

UK? GREAT job of passing Brexit :)

[UKrepublican]

Absolutely, a young 29 rabid 'right winger'. Freeper for quite a few years now. They told us it wouldn't happen - right up to even the early returns on the night. They tried the same tricks with the polls. They also used the betting markets to say it was 90+% a remain victory - HOURS into the count. Well guess what, the markets are following the same pattern!

[dp0622]

29!!! envious :)

You should post this as a vanity to give everyone a huge jolt of optimism.

[pangaea6]

I also think a lot of dem..ballots this time will be for Trump

[Chewbarkah]

Question. Does “Reps led in this category by 79,000 in 2012”, mean A) there were 79,000 more R Absentee Ballots returned than Dem; or, B0 in the final election count of all returned Absentee Ballots for 2012, Romney had 79,000 more votes than Obama? I ask, because I am trying to think through how Independents might account for the appearance of a smaller R Absentee Ballot advantage this time.

If I am reading your numbers correctly, about 18.2% of Absentee Ballots returned through 10-21-16 are neither R nor D.

In 2012, the final breakdown (per USAElectionsAtlas.com) was:
Obama: 49.91% 4,237,756 votes
Romney: 49.03% 4,163,447 votes
Other: 1.06% 89,816 votes

Figures for 2008 are similar, but Obama outscored McCain by roughly 250,000 votes. Other was almost the same as 2012.

Point: 2012 and 2008 results imply that Other traditionally wins only about 1% of actual votes, regardless of what people say in polls or how they identify themselves in registration. Due to great disgust with both D and R candidates in 2016, let’s go wild and guess that Other, triples its final share of votes to 3%. This implies a large majority of the 2016 “Independent” Absentee Ballots being returned actually have have votes for either Trump or Hillary.

[UKrepublican]

ha well, I shall try and enjoy it whilst it lasts!

I will have a looksie and see if its been posted. Gave me a jolt for sure.

Its interesting, looking at your page I see you love Vegas, and funny enough, I was there a few weeks ago, my first ever visit to the USA. It was a stag do (bachelor party?), and we stayed in the Cosmopolitan. Perhaps not a very representative view of America, but I was excited to be there nonetheless, and had the time of my life.

Now, as a rule in general, I try not to discuss politics in public, unless forced to. But a little side story that was a keen observation for me. We left a club one night (in Encore), and the staff that worked at this particular hotel were ushering people through etc.

We came across one of these staff, a short source faced women. She had told a friend of mine off for lighting up a cigarette, which I was surprised about, as everywhere else it seemed to be a allowed. I made a silly quip about it being down to Obama.

She replied ‘Why do you say that, is it because he is black?’. She was deadly serious. I asked, her who she plans to vote for to which she replied ‘I’m with her’ and walked away. So, yeah, the most miserable unfriendly person I happened to meet was an Obama/Clinton voter. I thought that was especially fitting!

[dp0622]

lol. They’re always ready to argue. But so are many on our side :) Especially on Staten Island and many other suburbs.

I’ve been to THREE bachelor parties in Vegas. Some of the BEST times of my life.

And the saying is true: What happens in Vegas, STAYS in vegas!!

[UKrepublican]

Amen to that!!