Posted on 11/10/2017 7:58:21 AM PST by SandRat
WASHINGTON — Rep. Martha McSally, R-Tucson, told House colleagues that she will run next year for the seat being vacated by Arizona Republican Sen. Jeff Flake, setting the stage for what could be a fractious primary fight with Kelli Ward.
Flake announced last month that he would not seek re-election because he did not think he could win a GOP primary without resorting to the sort of incivil politics he said is causing Washington gridlock.
That left the field to Ward, a vocal Trump supporter who ran unsuccessfully against Sen. John McCain in 2016.
Political analysts say McSally — with a compelling personal history and a hefty campaign bank account — has a good chance of beating Ward in a primary.
But Trump backers are already lining up against McSally, whom they are trying to paint as an establishment candidate.
ConservativeHQ Chairman Richard Viguerie said McSally was an “establishment, big government candidate” who would be “in the pocket of (Senate Majority Leader) Mitch McConnell” if she were elected.
Viguerie said Tuesday that the conservative movement “is in a state of flux” and he called on voters to unite behind a “fine, strong, principled limited-government conservative” like Kelli Ward.
McSally’s office declined to comment Tuesday on a possible Senate bid. But published reports last week said her House campaign manager responded to conservative attacks on McSally by pointing to analyses that show she voted in line with Trump’s position 96 percent of the time.
“A number of national Republican conservative groups have promised to oppose her candidacy,” said Jennifer Duffy, senior editor for the Cook Political Report. ”Although I suspect that she is more conservative than conservative activists give her credit for.”
MBQF Consulting analyst Mike Noble said the primary now will be a battle between the Republican Party’s factions and a “referendum on how the president is doing” — a referendum that he said McSally would win if the election were held today.
Noble said Ward has been dogged by “insensitive comments about McCain” after it was announced he had been diagnosed with brain cancer, and attack ads over her support for town hall hearings while in the state Senate over “chemtrails” left by jets.
But Noble said a primary victory is not a slam dunk for McSally with groups like Club for Growth and ConservativeHQ lined up against her.
“These big groups have the power and the clout to influence primaries,” Noble said, adding that she would fare better if she had support beyond the establishment.
Whoever wins the primary, Noble thinks she will face an uphill battle in the general election against Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, D-Phoenix, the current Democratic front-runner for the seat.
But another political consultant, Jason Rose, said a McSally bid would be “welcome news” for Republicans if they hope to beat Sinema, “one of the best politicians in Congress.”
“McSally was one of the first women fighter pilots,” he said, “and she’s battle-tested.”
Rose expects a challenging primary, but said McSally “is the best Republican that could possibly win.” He said a McSally-Sinema would be a toss-up to “leaning Sinema.”
McSally is relatively well-funded, with $1.45 million in the bank for her House campaign fund to Ward’s $284,536 as of Sept. 30, according to the most recent reports with the Federal Election Commission.
But Sinema reported to the FEC that she had more than $4.1 million in cash on hand as of Sept. 30. The only other announced candidate is first-time Democrat candidate Deedra Abboud, whose FEC report showed a campaign account of $7,849.
Abboud says “she has known for about a week” that McSally would be running and was quick to point out that “the top four contenders for the seat will be women, for a seat that has never had a woman.”
She called the all-woman field “very exciting” and said that anything could happen in the general election.
“It’s early, we’ll see,” Abboud said. “I think everyone should hold onto their hat for 2018.”
McSalley....McCain....C’mon Arizona, seriously?
If McSally is what it takes to insure victory I say get behind her and let Cruz deal with it. Remember the Buckley rule before blindly rallying behind a Sharon Angle or Todd Akin. If Ward can win by all means do it.
The GOPe is going to spend all their millions fighting conservatives. Tester and McCaskill will laugh all the way to reelection. It couldn’t be any more obviously now that the GOPe prefers Democrats to actual GOP base supported conservatives. How pathetic is that?
McSally is a Cheap Labor Express stooge, PLEASE AZ, do not do that to the rest of the country!
Follow the money. If K Street millions head to McSally she is bought and paid for GOPe. There will be no MAGA with K Street Republicans inside the beltway.
McSally is on the side of illegal aliens and their employers.
Might as well elect the Democrat.
Arizona doing it again. A border state electing an Amnesty
Senator in the mold of McShame and Flake? Why?
Is there something in the water in Arizona?
Sounds like Bush in 2000 to me. In other words ... DON'T FALL FOR IT!
McSally should wait for McCain to die. She would get his spot, Ward would win the Flake spot, and maybe Pima Cty. could sneak in another Pubbie rep. Possible +3. If she runs and splits Pubby vote, Dems win senate seat,Pima Cty. House seat possibly and could end up net 1 max or even net zero in final analysis. Dumb self centered move, below McSally’s standards as I know her.
JD Hayworth was the best we could do vs. McLame in 2010. Lost big. I don’t trust the primary voters in Az. to get it right. 2 seats coming up there. Hayworth would have won the general back then. He should get the gift seat through room temperature. That way we could get at least one conservative.
I read Sheriff Joe was going to run for senate!!
Talk about muddying the waters!!
I am a Kelli supporter. I don’t understand voters in AZ.
She is currently representing a district which includes Tucson and surrounding area. Raul Grijalva has gerrymandered the more leftist elements into his district but the district is dominated by Tucson and leans left.
It's very liberal and very closely divided so in order to win elections she needs to ride a fine line.
I suspect that she is more conservative than many people think and this may show in a statewide race.
Regardless, she is still a very good candidate.
The civil war that the Republican Establishment is fighting against it's base is very destructive and the more centrist Republicans in tough purple districts are seriously at risk of getting massacred in the next election
I don’t know if Mcsally is a rino or not. But “getting behind” a rino is what got us in this mess to begin with. I’d prefer to have a minority republican senate, and run conservatives to try to overcome and gain a majority, than have a majority of rino’s. They are NO different than a democrat.
A lot of this is Swamp noise from a compliant media. If everyone who, like my wife and I, recognizes the good fight that Kelli Ward gave McCain and the commitment she has shown that made Jeff Flake flake out and turn tail, we can have the good Doctor in the Senate next year.
Dr. Kelli Ward — US Senate 2018
A Choice Not and Echo
We have a majority in the House and Senate....the problem is the Rino’s, our own people, not the democrats. TURDle Mc CONnel is a absolute fail. He has got a few Judges confirmed...big FD.. that would have happened eventually regardless. He has not got one thing done on Trump/USA agenda. They are working the tax plan to benifit themselves and their corporate buddies. Not the middle class that is struggling to pay for healthcare and other increased exspenses.
We need the liberal republicans to get massacred in the primaries, and put up only conservatives that represent US, not the rino republican establishment.
The unfortunate reality is that if you put a hard core conservative up for election in McSally’s district, that person would almost certainly lose in the general election.
It's already a close thing for McSally
Fact is, with an all out brawl between McSally and Ward for Flake's seat, we run a very real risk of losing both Flake's seat to the Democrats and McSally’s old house seat to the Dems as well.
The fact that McSally is jumping ship to try for the Senate may suggest that she is already having doubts about her re electability in her House district.
I think there is a very good chance we lose both Flake's seat and McSally’s old House seat to the Dems in 18 if the establishment unloads on Ward like they are now doing to Moore. The Establishment's attitude of “if I can't have it, no one can. Let the Democrats win” is going to be devastating to the future of the party.
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