Posted on 12/20/2017 7:44:52 PM PST by Kaslin
Like Obamacare, people don’t know what’s in the Republican tax bill. Unlike Obamacare, they’re probably going to be pleasantly surprised.
A number of liberals have claimed that the passage of “unpopular” tax reform (judging from coverage it seems that the word “unpopular” must be affixed to any mention of tax reform) is that it is historically analogous to the passage of Obamacare, which triggered the loss of hundreds of Democrat seats and perhaps control of the presidency.
This wishful thinking for a number of reasons.
Yes, the tax bill is unpopular. Then again, I’m not sure you’ve noticed, everything Washington tries to do is unpopular. Nothing polls well. Not the president. Not congress. Not Democrats. Not legislation. Not even erstwhile popular-vote winning candidates. Certainly a bill being bombarded with hysterical end-of-world claims rarely debunked by the political media is not going to be popular. Republicans won’t pass anything if they wait around for it to be popular. But, funnily enough, they can be somewhat content knowing that voters will probably like it once they find out what’s in it.
According to a WSJ poll, 17% of Americans think they will pay less in taxes.
According to the Tax Policy Center, 80.4% of Americans will pay less taxes. pic.twitter.com/YzXRPa0dD5
— modest proposal (@modestproposal1) December 19, 2017
Why do so many Americans believe that middle class is getting a tax hike? Because those they trust are constantly lying to them. Both in framing and content, the coverage of the tax cuts has been impressively dishonest. “One-Third of Middle Class Families Could End Up Paying More Under the GOP Tax Plan” writes CNN (They won’t). The Associated Press says, “BREAKING: House passes first rewrite of nation’s tax laws in three decades, providing steep tax cuts for businesses, the wealthy.” And so on.
There will always be ideological arguments regarding the efficacy of tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy, but at some point people are going to find out that they’ve gotten one, too. Non-partisan liberals at the Tax Policy Center concede that 80 percent of Americans would see a tax cut in 2018 and that the average cut would be $2,140 – which might be something to scoff at in DC but I imagine a bunch of voters surprised by these savings will be less cynical. Only 4.8 percent of Americans will see a tax increase.
Like Obamacare, people don’t know what’s in the bill. But unlike Obamacare, the repeal of the individual mandate merely gives millions a choice. The passage of Obamacare upended lives. ACA would become synonymous with “health care insurance,” and everything that went wrong with that insurance would be attributed to the bill by voters. And since Democrats offered a litany of fantastical promises about the future of health care, the disapproval was well deserved. Millions began losing their insurance plans as soon as Obamacare was implemented, despite assurances from the president and pliant Democrats that no such thing would happen. For many, premiums in the individual markets doubled over four years of Obamacare. These are tangible, real-life consequences that voters dealt with.
Republicans are telling themselves same thing D’s told themselves about the ACA: once the law goes into effect people will actually like it. With ACA that was true, but it took 8 brutal years.
— Chris Hayes (@chrislhayes) December 19, 2017
Whatever valid concerns there are about debt or spending (and they are valid,) the idea that tax cuts will have similar long-term consequences on voting as health care is unlikely. It is more likely that tax cuts will do little to change the dynamics of the coming years at all. But it is plausible that, because of the overreaction from the Left, millions of Americans who thought they were going pay more in taxes will find a new child credit and be thankful.
As an ideological matter, every time a Democrat claims that keeping more of your own money is tantamount to stealing – which is all the time – voters should remember this is fundamentally a debate between people who believe the state should have first dibs on your property and those who don’t. The only way to frame the bill as a tax hike is by using the 2025 expiration of individual rate cuts. And the only way they won’t be extended is if Democrats decide to raise taxes again. These are debates Republicans should embrace.
That’s not to say tax reform will save the day. Historically speaking, it’s likely the party in power will lose a bunch of seats in 2018 midterms. But to claim, as Democrats are sure to do, that those loses are unique or tied to the toxicity of an agenda item – particularly a tax cut, which is generally popular among Americans (when they know it exists) – is far-fetched.
The Democrats are winning the war for public opinion on the Tax Bill. The Republicans are doibg nothing to appeal to the American people on it.
Just wait until April 16, 2019.
First day of the “Rust Belt” revolution.
The media and the Democrats will never concede credit to Trump for anything positive. So long as they can convince the people that up is down and wrong is right, they’ll win.
The difference is that Trump is DOING things. He’s not just talking about it.
More people will have jobs.
More people will keep more of their own money.
More people will deal with less regulation.
Objective results will win.
And the Left bitching about paying slightly higher taxes on mortgages _exceeding_ $750,000, while actual middle class does better, will resonate long & badly - undermining the “soak the rich” demands (”ok, we are - why are you complaining?”).
+ 1 for originality....in your dreams.
Isaiah 5:20: Woe unto them that call evil good, and good evil; that count darkness as light, and light as darkness; that put bitter for sweet, and sweet for bitter!
Not quite. Republicans are taking less taxes from citizens. Democrats condemn Republicans for stealing from the government. Who is gonna win that argument?
But the Republicans are useless and don’t know how to fight, unlike the Dems. They ought to take a page out of Trump’s playbook and destroy them over this, but they won’t. Pathetic.
People will notice when they are paying less.
The media and pollsters has been complicate in doing their best to portray this tax reform as unpopular.
They have managed through slanted and fake news coverage and cooked up polls to convince people that they will be paying more money in taxes, when in fact they will be paying less taxes and saving and making more money.
How have they done it... Well, it’s mostly been fake news. The first thing is that they never mention the words ‘lower’ or ‘less’ when talking about tax reform. That’s taken directly from the Democrat talking points given to them in their daily briefings.
Everybody likes lower taxes and paying less taxes. Anybody in their right mind who doesn’t would be a complete fool. CNN, CBS and NBC have all portrayed this as ‘tax reform’ or Trump’s tax reform package... They rarely mention that it involves a reduction in taxes, and pump the Democrat mantra that it’s helping rich people.
The big problem with this narrative... When people get their pay and see that they have more money, or go to pay their taxes and realize that they are paying less... Well, then the gig is up. The Republicans have just secured their retention of the house in the 2018 midterms and the Democrats have given them a gift by not voting for LOWER taxes.
This is a very big win for Republicans and the proof will be realized come November of 2018.
"A man can no more diminish God's glory by refusing to worship Him than a lunatic can put out the sun by scribbling the word, 'darkness' on the walls of his cell." -- C. S. Lewis
They will see more money in their pay checks but by the time they do their 2018 taxes the elections will be over.
Great idea. Anyone receiving questionnaires from the DNC should put that in the comment section.
Donald Trump’s number one priority is making America great again. The Democrat’s number one priority is stopping Donald Trump. Let me repeat that last sentence...the Democrat’s number one priority is stopping Donald Trump. As everything gets better, the Democrats are going to find they have a losing strategy.
Pro trump republicans should run in ALL the district’s dems have to get re-elected and remind voters they wanted you poor...
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