Free Republic
Browse · Search
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Election Odds ^ | Jan 03, 2018 | John Stossel

Posted on 01/02/2018 9:21:58 PM PST by Oshkalaboomboom

President Trump is up 3 percent!

I refer to the betting odds. Gamblers (mostly in Europe because political bets are legal there) now give the president a 53 percent chance of finishing his first term.

That's it -- they barely think he'll complete four years. This must seem wrong to Trump supporters, but when Trump won the presidency, the odds were significantly lower -- many people thought he wouldn't finish one term.

"He can't take the criticism! He'll get mad and quit! He'll get bored and quit! He'll return to making money! He'll be impeached! Assassinated! He'll get so angry that he has a stroke!"

I live in New York City, so I heard (and hear) all that and more.

Still, I thought the people saying he'd be gone in less than four years were wrong. So, I took bets from friends. So far, it looks like I'm winning.

You can follow the odds at, a site created by my associate Maxim Lott. He doesn't create the numbers -- just translates the bets into odds Americans can understand.

I know you Trump fans mock the betting odds. I read your comments on Facebook and Twitter: "Stossel the Fool, your website got Trump's election wrong! Why trust your site now?"

Here's why: Betting odds are more reliable predictors of future events than polls, pundits and everything else.

True, before Trump won, gamblers gave him only a 20 percent chance. But 20 percent isn't nothing, and by election night recognized the truth faster than the TV commentators did.

As I write, the bettors predict that in this year's congressional elections, Republicans will hold the Senate but lose the House.

In 2020, who will be elected president? Trump leads, but oddsmakers give him just a 29 percent chance.

His biggest competition among Democrats is, surprisingly, California Senator Kamala Harris. She has a 7 percent chance. Then Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden. (Hillary Clinton ranks even lower: just 2 percent.)

His biggest rival overall is Vice President Mike Pence, at 8 percent.

Yes, it's too early to predict this November's results, let alone 2020's. But watching the odds change is fun (they update every five minutes), and gamblers are the best guide.

Of course, I want a libertarian to win.

For my YouTube video this week, I asked Libertarian Party chairman Nick Sarwark, "Why bother competing? Last election, even though so many people hated both the Democrat and Republican, Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson got less than 4 percent of the vote."

"We tripled all previous records," he replied. "In the 45-year history of the Libertarian Party, we've never had that kind of support."

Not good enough, I said.

"Success is a long-term thing," Sarwark assured me. "More people are seeing that when you elect Republicans you don't get the sort of small government they run on. If you elect Democrats, you don't get civil liberties. ... Both parties are fighting over the ability to take your tax money and give it to their corporate special interest friends."

But those two corrupt major parties keep winning!

"We're growing and they're dying," replied Sarwark. "Voter registration identity with Republicans and Democrats is dropping. Voter registration identity with Libertarians is the only party that's growing."

Some Libertarians claim the party would have done better in 2016 had Gary Johnson been a better candidate. Some complained, "He's too low-key. He sounded like he was stoned."

"No one has the perfect combination of credibility, experience, purity of message," replied Sarwalk. "He was the best candidate the delegates could have picked. And we had the best success that we've ever had."

Win or lose, he added, Libertarians will remind Americans about basic principles we have in common: "The rights of the individual, the right to free speech, to keep and bear arms, limitations on the powers of government. We want a right to live our life and pursue happiness any way we choose -- as long as we don't hurt other people and don't take their stuff. And the two old political parties, that's not what they're about. They're about taking power and controlling you."

TOPICS: Culture/Society; Editorial; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: bet; presidenttrump
How odd to be talking about odds this far out from an election. Bill Clinton became President because Bush was so popular and the odds were so high against a Democrat winning that all of the big names stayed away and we were left with the "Seven Dwarves" for the Primaries. Then overnight Bush's popularity went into the basement and the rest is history. Doesn't Stossel remember?
1 posted on 01/02/2018 9:21:58 PM PST by Oshkalaboomboom
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: Oshkalaboomboom
Check out the polls in June 2015:

Or this oldie but goodie:

Or this newbie:

2 posted on 01/02/2018 9:35:15 PM PST by DoodleBob
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Oshkalaboomboom

I like John Stossel, and used to watch him on TV.
Everytime I hear or read his name, my first thought is a live interview John did with a Pro-Wrestler. At some point, Stossel made a slight wisecrack about Pro-Wrestling being ‘fake’ and sat there grinning, holding the microphone in front of the wrestler.

Suddenly, the wrestler smacked Stossel in the head with a clenched fist. The strike was so quick, I wasn’t sure it really even happened until I saw John S. double over in pain and say ‘We are going to a commercial break, right now.”

3 posted on 01/02/2018 10:15:59 PM PST by lee martell
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Oshkalaboomboom

Stossel also said in November 2016 that Clinton would win because those same European oddsmakers had their money on her and oddsmakers don’t like to lose money.

4 posted on 01/02/2018 10:17:31 PM PST by MHT (,`)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Oshkalaboomboom

As I write, the bettors predict that in this year’s congressional elections, Republicans will hold the Senate but lose the House.

That is friction lazy math.

25 Dems are up , with 11 vulnerable and only 8 Republicans are up , with only one vulnerable in the Senate.

Then there is the House. The dems need 25 to gain a majority.

It will be a simple majority and not enough to gain votes for idiotic impeachment.

However, they can only succeed if the economy sucks , which ain’t likely.

I predict they lose seats and the Republicans gain seats....

5 posted on 01/03/2018 2:00:40 AM PST by Vendome (I've Gotta Be Me -
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]


IIRC, one or maybe two UK bookies paid out early on Clinton’s win. They didn’t even wait for the election.

6 posted on 01/03/2018 2:02:03 AM PST by reformedliberal
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: Oshkalaboomboom

7 posted on 01/03/2018 3:06:18 AM PST by Haiku Guy (ELIMINATE PERVERSE INCENTIVES)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794 is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson