Skip to comments.POLL DATA BODE WELL FOR GOP, IN SHORT TERM
Posted on 06/24/2018 3:46:08 PM PDT by MaxistheBest
This CBS News Battleground Tracker poll is interesting, for a number of reasons. It was large, sampling over 2,000 Americans (not registered voters), it was taken at the height of the separated children hysteria (June 21-22), and cross tabs are supplied.
Given the timing of the survey, the results are mostly reassuring for Republicans. The Democrats generic ballot advantage is only four pointsand again, respondents arent even registered voters, let alone likely voters. And despite the presss coordinated effort to whip up hysteria over the separated children issue, check out this finding:
Do you approve or disapprove of how Donald Trump is handling the matter of children and parent separation at the border?
Approve: 42% Disapprove: 58%
In general, I am not much of a believer in the secret Trump voter theory, but given the timing of this survey and the media tempest, I have to think that 42% is a minimum.
This finding may shed light on why so many Americans dont buy the presss spin:
Which of these do you think should be done with families trying to enter the U.S. illegally?
Release the entire family back to their home country together: 48% Arrest the parents and keep the children in a separate detention facility: 4% Arrest the parents but keep the children with them in the same detention facility: 11% Release the entire family in the U.S. temporarily and require that they report back for a hearing later: 21% Not sure: 16%
Note that only 21% support the Obama administrations lax policy. This question and the responses thereto perhaps provide the clearest window into what Americans actually think about immigration:
In your view, over recent years, have recent immigrants from Mexico and Latin America made life in the state of [state] better or worse?
Better: 23% Worse: 32% Not had an impact either way: 45%
These poll results are also a vivid reminder that most people dont vote in midyear elections.
As best you can recall, have you voted in a midterm election before in [state] either in 2014 or 2010?
Yes: 47% No: 53%
Moreover, only 49% say they definitely will vote this year, while 9% say they probably will vote. Those numbers point to another low turnout.
From the Democrats perspective, their 4-point lead on the generic ballot doesnt provide much comfort. Too many of their voters are concentrated in urban areas, for one thing. Piling up big margins in those districts doesnt help. In politics, as in sports, it doesnt matter whether you win 90-10 or 51-49.
Beyond that, Republicans, on average, are better educated and more civically minded than Democrats, and are more likely to vote in midterm elections. This CBS poll documents this clearly. Overall, 47% say they have voted in at least one of the last two midterm elections. But the breakdown is not even: 52% of Democrats say they have voted in one of those elections, compared with 64% of Republicans. (Independents are the least likely to vote.) Similarly, when asked about their intentions this year, 58% of Democrats and 63% of Republicans say they definitely will turn out. So the Democrats 4% preference margin vanishes.
There are a lot more interesting results at the link; Id encourage you to browse. In a later post I will explain why, even though this snapshot is quite optimistic for Novembers elections, it should cause concern about the countrys long-term future.
Exactly - Keep yelling !!!
This was on the Powerline a few days ago...the revolution may be starting..
Trumps Rally in Duluth
.At least 25 percent of the audience was under the age of 30, and around 40 percent were women. The senior citizen percentage was less than 10 percent the lowest Ive ever seen at a Republican event. Other than the hundred or so party leaders, this was a vastly different crowd from the Minnesota Republican Convention that I attended in Duluth three weeks ago. None of the attendees I spoke with in the concession line at the rally were politically active (other than voting) and none were born-and-bred Republicans.
Trumps Rally in Duluth
I think this shows that the conservative Trump voter doesn’t care to be “out there” on the front lines like the nuts we see on the other side...after the 2016 election, they know they can get all the satisfaction they need and win at the ballot box by simply voting...no fuss, no racket, no mess:)
Vote Democrat and you get more Crazy Maxines ,LOL
The local gop office needs to assign me 5-10 registered Republicans to ‘rag ‘ on. Offer them a ride to the polls on election day and a get together afterwards at a hotel ballroom. Heck I’d have one at my house. Fact is 10-20% of us are hard core. We can take the day off and drive people. Even contract out to uber.
If all those Trump supporters become aware that Rolling Stone published a story about the Duluth rally and labelled all those attending “lightweight Yahoos” who do not know anything - then they will be sure to go and vote and maybe bring a friend with them.
Nothing scientific. However, midterms go to the most impassioned voter base (NO, NOT the Middle like Presidential years). Who's more ready to vote- the party that's sick and tired of getting their people beaten at rallies, kicked out of restaurants, told they're stupid, deplorable, smell bad, and are in threat of being thrown into Khmer Rouge-like re-education camps; or the party that stays stoned, doesn't believe in the 2nd Amendment, whose political bench is in back of abortion dumpsters?
Absolutely, liberals in both parties should continue dancing up and down the blvd to scream about the horrible treatment of illegal invaders. All that air wasted when they could be pushing real liberal agenda items like student loan defaults. I mean, you had everything rolling for you when that poll was taken and you could hardly get much of a blip off of it.
I expect liberals of all parties to double down on stupidity in response to the president’s suggestion that invaders be simply tossed back across the border.
The senior citizen percentage was less than 10 percent the lowest Ive ever seen at a Republican event.
CBS news polls their brain addled viewers.
Likely voters tend to skew more toward the Republican Party than simply registered voters. Similarly, registered voters tend to be a more Republican group than Americans in general.
So there is a built in bias in the polling technique, which will provide a larger Democratic Party percentage than an election would.
Reasons to vote democratic
This guy says generic ballot polls tend to overstate democrat support, sometimes by a lot.
You and me. I gave a little north of $1,600 to our PRESIDENT Trump in 2016 but didn’t attend a single Trump rally simply because my back could not take all the standing and walking. Naturally, I’m no longer a fan of airline travel. I’ll stick to my 2018 Navigator.
“Experts” couching their words
I wont do that
The clear truth is the Democrats are sitting in late June with nothing to run on and a population that backs Trump on illegal aliens. The GDP will blow the roof off everything. The Democrats have killed themselves with talk of Nazi Nazi Nazi.
Note that while a majority disapproves of President Trump, pluralities respond favorably on every policy point,
Ithink hte president’s colorful personal history and his brassy personality (which is a New York thing) rub some people the wrong way, but they like what he is doing in office — and I think that the latter is what counts.
Trump voters will be voting!
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