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Hurricane Florence Live Thread II
NHC/NOAA ^ | 12 September 2018 | NHC/NOAA

Posted on 09/12/2018 1:53:29 PM PDT by NautiNurse

The National Hurricane Center has been issuing advisories for Hurricane Florence since August 30. The five day "Cone of Uncertainty" archive progression since Aug. 30 may be found here. As the super-size storm named Florence approached the U.S. Atlantic Coast, stories abound of people who are refusing to evacuate barrier islands.

The 82nd Airborne has relocated all of its assets, while FEMA is using Fort Bragg as a major staging area for post-storm supplies, including meals, water and cots. Fort Jackson (Columbia SC) has cancelled events including basic training graduation to prepare for military and civilian evacuees from coastal locations.

While hurricane preparations are rushed to completion, some stores are closing for lack of hurricane supplies inventory. Smart phone app Gas Buddy provides updates for gasoline availability along evacuation routes.

Wave heights to 83 ft. were recorded while Hurricane Florence churned 435 miles from Wilmington, NC. Storm surge is predicted to reach 6-13 ft along the coastline to the N of landfall. Steering currents are forecast to collapse at or near landfall, resulting in Florence meandering for days. This is expected to result in up to 40 inches of rainfall in isolated areas in the Carolinas, and up to a foot of rain in the Appalachian Mountains.

Tropical Storm Isaac: The government of France has issued Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches for the Lesser Antilles.

Invest 95L: The National Hurricane Center predicts 70% chance of development in the Gulf of Mexico. Limited forecast models, satellite graphics and GOM buoy info are available for Invest 95L below.

Mash the graphics below to enlarge. All links and images are self-updating.

Hurricane Florence Isaac Invest 95L
No Forecast Cone for Invest 95L
at publication deadline

Florence Public Advisory Isaac Public Advisory
Florence Forecast Discussion Isaac Forecast Discussion
Buoy/Observations near Florence Buoy/Observations near Isaac Buoys Western GOM

National Data Buoy Center

Local Weather:
Norfolk VA
Morehead City NC
Raleigh NC
Fayetteville NC
Wilmington NC
Charleston SC/Savannah GA
Jacksonville FL
San Juan PR

Hurricane Florence & Isaac Thread I

TOPICS: Breaking News; Extended News; Front Page News; News/Current Events; US: North Carolina; US: South Carolina
KEYWORDS: braking; florence; hurricane; hurricaneflorence; hurricaneflorenceii; isaac; nautinurse; tropical
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Final preparations for Hurricane Florence should be rushed to completion. Please keep comments on-topic. Be kind to your FRiends and neighbors.
1 posted on 09/12/2018 1:53:29 PM PDT by NautiNurse
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To: abb; abbi_normal_2; aberaussie; abner; AbsoluteGrace; alancarp; Alas Babylon!; Alia; ...
Florence weakens...continues to get bigger...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM Advisory...
About 385 MI...SE of Wilmington NC
About 420 MI...ESE of Myrtle Beach SC
Maximum Sustained Winds...120 MPH
Present Movement...NW at 16 MPH
Minimum Central Pressure...949 MB...

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195

On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->

2 posted on 09/12/2018 1:54:39 PM PDT by NautiNurse (Do not make me pay Ferrari prices for Chevy Vega health insurance.)
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To: NautiNurse

Ain’t too happy with the track but it has to go somewhere.

Can’t make everybody on the east coast happy.

On board for the ride.

3 posted on 09/12/2018 1:56:00 PM PDT by PeteB570 ( Islam is the sea in which the Terrorist Shark swims. The deeper the sea the larger the shark.)
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To: PeteB570

We evacuated to Old Dominion.

4 posted on 09/12/2018 1:58:04 PM PDT by Salvavida
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To: NautiNurse

Data from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft along with
satellite imagery and various intensity estimates indicate that
Florence has weakened instead of strengthening. However, while the
hurricane hasn’t strengthened in terms of peak winds, the inner-core
and outer wind fields have continued to expand, resulting in an
increase the cyclone’s total energy, which will create a significant
storm surge event. The upper-level outflow remains impressive and is
still expanding except toward the south.

Florence is moving toward the northwest or 315/14 kt. The new 12Z
global and regional model runs have come into much better agreement
on Florence moving steadily northwestward around a strong ridge
located between Bermuda and the U.S. mid-Atlantic region for the
next 48 hours or so. By late on day 2, Florence is forecast to
approach the southern portion of the North Carolina coast, then slow
down considerably and turn westward within collapsing steering flow,
with a very slow westward motion near the coasts of North and South
Carolina continuing into Friday and Saturday. Corrected-consensus
models HCCA and FSSE remain very close to each other and are quite
similar to the simple consensus model TVCA. Therefore, only a slight
eastward shift was needed to the previous forecast track through 36
hours or so, mainly due to the more eastward initial position based
on the reconnaissance fixes. At 48 hours and beyond, no significant
changes were required to the previous advisory track, which still
shows Florence moving slowly westward across South Carolina and
western North Carolina on day 4, followed by a slow northward motion
up the Appalachian mountain chain on day 5.

A narrow window of opportunity remains during the next 24 hours or
so for Florence to strengthen a little when the hurricane passes
over the warmer SSTs and deeper warm water/higher upper-ocean heat
content associated with the Gulf Stream, and low vertical shear
conditions of 5-10 kt will aid in any strengthening process.
However, significant strengthening is not anticipated due to
Florence’s large and expanding inner-core wind field. By 36 h
and beyond, decreasing ocean heat content along with the slowing
forward speed of Florence will likely produce cold upwelling beneath
the hurricane, inducing a gradual weakening trend. When Florence
moves over the shallow coastal shelf waters in 48-72 h, land
interaction and more significant upwelling are anticipated, which
should further enhance the weakening process. The NHC intensity
forecast remains near the higher statistical guidance through 48
hours, then follows the trend of the decay SHIPS model after that

Although the maximum winds are expected to weaken a little more,
Florence is still expected to remain a dangerous major hurricane as
it approaches the coast. The threat to life from storm surge and
rainfall will not diminish, and these impacts will cover a large
area regardless of exactly where the center of Florence moves.

Key Messages:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is now highly likely along
portions of the coastlines of South Carolina and North Carolina, and
a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for a portion of this area. All
interests in these areas should complete preparations and follow any
advice given by local officials.

2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged
significant river flooding are likely over portions of the Carolinas
and the southern and central Appalachians late this week into early
next week, as Florence is expected to slow down as it approaches the
coast and moves inland.

3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the
coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Warning
is in effect. Strong winds could also spread inland into portions
of the Carolinas.

4. Large swells affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East
Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas will continue this
week, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.


INIT 12/2100Z 30.9N 72.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 32.1N 74.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 33.4N 75.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 33.9N 77.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 34.0N 77.9W 100 KT 115 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
72H 15/1800Z 33.6N 79.2W 70 KT 80 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
96H 16/1800Z 34.0N 81.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 17/1800Z 35.6N 83.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

5 posted on 09/12/2018 1:59:27 PM PDT by dirtboy
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To: NautiNurse

I am really unhappy with this travel down the coast forecast; properties in Calabash and Myrtle Beach.

6 posted on 09/12/2018 1:59:45 PM PDT by Truth29
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To: PeteB570

Yeah, me neither. I know it’s got to go somewhere. I’m down in the Charleston area.

Hoping and praying that we don’t get it too bad. Stepson is at the ER right now with my wife. I’m trying to get the smaller/loose things put up in the garage and about screwed my garage door up.

It hasn’t been the best day for us.

7 posted on 09/12/2018 2:00:29 PM PDT by Mr Fuji
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To: NautiNurse

Thanks for sharing this great info.


8 posted on 09/12/2018 2:00:33 PM PDT by Mears
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To: NautiNurse

Thank you! Following these developments with great interest and concern for life and property.

9 posted on 09/12/2018 2:01:22 PM PDT by MustKnowHistory
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To: Mr Fuji

Take care.

10 posted on 09/12/2018 2:02:02 PM PDT by MustKnowHistory
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To: NautiNurse

So here in Charleston I’ve been following it close. Latest is it’s going to make landfall somewhere and may stall and come down and hit us. Then of course it may not do any of that.

One thing I learned about the weather guessers is to never let them use the bathroom in your house. They go all over the place and may not even hit the toilet.

11 posted on 09/12/2018 2:04:16 PM PDT by Hillarys Gate Cult
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To: Mr Fuji

I hope you and yours get through this ok.

Right now, a very light rain has gone by.

The fun has yet to start.

12 posted on 09/12/2018 2:05:11 PM PDT by wally_bert (Terrific! Terrific? Harve Nyquist never ordered any radials.)
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To: NautiNurse

Wow, what I heard was it will be incredibly dangerous, insanely destructive, and catastrophic, even while weakening, all at the same time. But don’t let your eyes or observations or weather data fool you, because it is really more catastrophic than you or any normal human can discern.

And at the same time, Hillary was the most qualified and best candidate for President since George Washington.

13 posted on 09/12/2018 2:08:47 PM PDT by spiderpig (does whatever a SpiderPig does)
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To: All

Storm Total Precipitation out of Raleigh may be interesting....if they ever reset it to start over(over a weeks totals on there)

I think we might loose the Wilmington radar

14 posted on 09/12/2018 2:09:37 PM PDT by janetjanet998
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To: NautiNurse
Styx talks about his experience with Hurricane Irene in Vermont. Because of rainfall being concentrated in valleys, the storm did as much damage there as it did at landfall. And this was after the storm had "gone across the whole Appalachian Chain" and had supposedly been depleted. "It still smashed into us like a sledge hammer."

Hurricane Florence Could Be a Massive Disaster for People Well Inland (YouTube)

15 posted on 09/12/2018 2:09:45 PM PDT by snarkpup ("We need to have a REAL political campaign - rivaling the scale of Comic-Con!" - Tan)
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To: NautiNurse

My dad is in Kernersville, NC. Fortunately, he lives on high ground. Offering prayers for everybody anyways.c


16 posted on 09/12/2018 2:13:06 PM PDT by Celtic Conservative (Do you know what really burns my ass? A flame about 3 feet high.)
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To: Mr Fuji

Prayers up for your family.

17 posted on 09/12/2018 2:13:17 PM PDT by RushIsMyTeddyBear
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To: NautiNurse

Thanks for ALL You do...

18 posted on 09/12/2018 2:14:00 PM PDT by DAVEY CROCKETT (I am women hear me roar, Amos5:15 Hate evil, love good, And establish justice in the (gate) Court.)
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Comment #19 Removed by Moderator

To: PeteB570
It looks like the new path takes it directly across Charlotte. That will be a cluster****.
20 posted on 09/12/2018 2:20:00 PM PDT by Governor Dinwiddie ("Nature, Mr. Allnut, is what we are put in this world to rise above.")
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