Posted on 10/18/2018 6:34:59 AM PDT by 11th_VA
We went with the name “Drive for 25” as an homage to a 2012 House Democratic slogan and to reflect the fact that while Democrats need to net 23 seats, they probably are going to lose at least a couple of seats they currently hold to Republicans.
(snip)
This year, Republicans appear to be guaranteed at least one pickup: PA-14, an open seat in southwestern Pennsylvania that is a more Republican-leaning version of the old PA-18, the seat now-Rep. Conor Lamb (D) won in a special election in March.
(snip)
Republicans also are targeting two open seats in Minnesota, MN-1 (covering southern Minnesota) and MN-8 (covering the northeastern part of the state, including the traditionally Democratic but GOP-trending Iron Range). The president carried both of these districts by about 15 points. We’re moving one, MN-8, from Toss-up to Leans Republican this week after the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee appeared to write off the district. The GOP may very well end up picking up MN-1 as well, which remains a Toss-up. If so, that would mean Democrats would have to win 26 currently Republican-held seats to win the House. Additionally, two competitive, Democratic-held open seats in Nevada, NV-3 and NV-4, seem highly competitive. We still favor Democrats in both but it wouldn’t be a shock if the GOP picked off one or the other. Again, Democrats would have to make up any GOP gains through gains of their own among current Republican seats. ..
(Excerpt) Read more at crystalball.centerforpolitics.org ...
I think a lot of people are going to be surprised in November. IT might be even worse than 2016. Or better, depending on which party you favor.
I will not be surprised at all. The elections have been nationalized from multiple angles, and the Republicans have every reason on earth to be energized, as is evidenced by Trump’s rallies. Harry Truman who?
The snowflakes are turning off the rank and file Democrats with their disgusting behavior, and blacks are walking away and favoring Trump by a large plurality.
This is going to be a red tsunami, or I’ll know the reason why. Where is my absentee ballot, dammit.
I think both sides are going to be disappointed.
I think the GOP will be disappointed that they did not gain as much in the US Senate as they hoped. 55 seems to be the cap on modern GOP possible Senate seats.
I think the Dens are going to be raging because their “Blue Wave” turned out to be Media manufactured nonsense and they do not take back the US House. The GOP will have a much smaller majority but it will stay in control.
The big winner in Nov is most likely to be President Donald Trump. Given the large number of die hard Never Trumpers who retired from both the US House and Senate, the next Congress, if the GOP holds, is going to be a much friendlier place for the President.
There’s a story going around political circles here in Minnesota that the DCCC cancelled a $1.2 million dollar ad buy in CD-8.
It looks like they’re gonna re-direct the money into CD 1 (open seat) as well as CD 2 (incumbent GOP 1st term Rep Jason Lewis).
Jason Lewis is in a tough race this year. The district has a GOP lean to it but there are a lot of suburban soccer moms in Dakota and Scott Counties who feel like Jason is a “meanie”.
Here’s a map of the 2nd CD
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minnesota%27s_2nd_congressional_district#/media/File:Minnesota_US_Congressional_District_2_(since_2013).tif
It’s a weird combo of suburbia and rural small towns.
For those interested and able to do so, Jason’s campaign wouldn’t mind a campaign donation:
Trust me, folks. There’s no one bit of RINO in Jason.
Speaking of MartyMac, we may have a shot at her fellow Jet Jockey, Wendy Rogers, knocking off (D) o’halleran, the shape-shifter, in AZ 1. The rez votes will be the X factor. She’s working them hard.
this is my position, as well.
Sabato has shattered the old crystal ball in the past few elections as he continually undermiscalculates (lol) the republican forces. It appears that this time around he is covering all contingencies to a point where is vision of the future means absolutely nothing. Kind of like a weatherman predicting intermittent sun, partly cloudy with a chance of showers.
Our worst domestic enemies remember that they got clean away with all the violence they desired after the last election....
I agree. Then we have Tom Emmer in CD-6 who is in the most solidly conservative district in Minnesota, but only has a CR score of 69% vs Jason's 80%.
Everything depends on Republicans going to the polls whether a tight election or not. When Republicans do not vote in safe districts, or perceive they are safe, it provides an opportunity for an upset and it allows the Dems to claim we got the most votes nationally so Senate, House etc is non-legitimate. Worked hard last evening after 5 PM going door-to-door encouraging neighbors to vote early and why it is so important. In my district fighting complacency in house race but the Governor’s race is so important for the state.
Our worst domestic enemies remember that they got clean away with all the violence they desired after the last election....
It’s different now. :)
Your point regarding not voting because your district is safe is a strong one and, I hate to admit, one I had not considered.
Thank you.
The wildcard in this election, which makes it different from a lot of other ones and favors Republicans, is the very strong economy. Additionally, there are no raging conflicts to make people nervous.
Normal people tend to like stability. The question is will they turn out to vote in large numbers?
Did the attacks on Republican candidates get reported in any local news?
This Larry Sabato — who leans Democrat. So take it with a grain of salt.
See you all at the ballot box.
It's probably correct since it's her old Congressional seat they are talking about rather than the AZ Senate seat.
There is going to be a red wave that will stun the world.
Winner! I think you nailed it.
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