Posted on 10/22/2018 2:50:13 PM PDT by Kaslin
Please let him be right.
Trump's latest Rasmussen approval rating is 47%, NOT 51%, but still higher than most previous presidents, including Obama and Clinton, at this stage of their respective administrations.
One hopeful signal from Ras: Generic House ballot nationally from Ras was D+1 last week! If this is accurate and stays that way, Pubbies will maintain the majority. That's because 'Rat winning districts have considerably wider margins historically than GOP winning districts, at least on average. So 'Rats have to get at least +4 to win the majority of districts, so common wisdom dictates.
I think they will still try, and that is why we have south American criminals marching to the United State in order to try to block vote law enforcement on election day.
You don't need to import new illegals to perpetrate the 'Rat vote fraud schemes. There are enough here as it is, unfortunately.
This new "caravan" of illegals headed toward the Mexico-US border will probably not arrive at the border until AFTER the election is over. Their very existence in news reports can only HURT 'Rats in the elections by bringing out more pro-Trump voters.
It's put up or shut up time.
Hope Trump does NOT cave in, of course.
But the critical point for Trump may not come until the invasion arrives AFTER the elections are over.
The only blue wave the rats will see is the blue Tidy Bowl blue wave!!
The purpose of the illegal caravan is not to vote, it is to tie up immigration control personnel. They can’t be in two places at once.
I know the site, but that there’s a lot of polls there to dissect! LOL. I’ll see if I can pick one or two of the random or oddballs (like a D winning a R district etc) to see if there are obvious anomalies.
I heard the 50% number from another source, just not sure which. But as you said 47% is very good. What they don’t report on those numbers are the “undecided”. What I’m getting at is if it’s 38% unfavorable to 47% favorable, you can pretty much break the undecideds by the same proportion and that gets you over 50%. Or follow the Larry Elder “Elvis” rule, that 7% of the people think Elvis is alive and would read your letter if you wrote him... you have a hard time getting to 50% when 7% are just plain whack.
I heard today that GOP early voting is leading in most states. I bet the Democrats didn’t expect that when they pushed for it. Next they’ll want year-round voting! Everything they do to change precedent comes back to bite them politically. I cannot honestly believe that the people would give them control of the Congress, either house, at this point. They are out of sync with the country right now, and they are pressing their bet again and again. But as I said above, per Tip O’Neil, all politics is local. It comes down to the way the wind blows in each individual district.
A lot of it depends on what the caravan does when it arrives. If it splinters/fragments, then its just a statistical blip over the situation we have now. A few extra people trying to sneak in via the usual routes. If they come en mass to one or a couple of major crossings, then a) do they go through the process single-file - which means they are fingerprinted, interviewed for asylum, detained or b) do they riot and try to break down the gates? Different responses, and I am sure Trump will prepare for either eventuality. He’s politically tied to it, and experienced enough to know to order the use of the least lethal methods available to repel.
I am no military tactician, but tactics for repelling an invasion force goes back to biblical days. I’m not all that worried about it, even if the media plays it up big. I just don’t want to see bloodshed over it.
So look at VA10, which is held by a GOP incumbent, and the polls have her trailing by 7. If you read the latest poll the first paragraph they admit the sample size is very small, a 5% margin of error, which means it is anywhere from -12 to +3. If you just read what they write it sounds like wishful thinking, “lots of college aged residents” and “Trump not well liked”. I am not saying she will win, and all but one of the polls show her trailing, but just seeing it leaning Dem for a seat held by a GOP incumbent is an oddity since incumbents win more than 90%Z of the time. It will come down to get out the vote and the article says the GOP is spending to defend this seat. Further down there is a McLaughlin poll that shows Comstock ahead by 1%. It is the oddball poll, so we have to dig to find out the methodologies and see if there is an obvious error.
Keep digging and you see, 70% of the respondents were reached on a cell phone. That skews to younger. In fact they were 20% short of their target in reaching people 65 and older. They do however reach more males than female, if it matters, and both candidates are female. 11% were undecided or refused to answer. When you narrow down to “types of people they believe are likely to vote” they have her down by 4%, not 7%.
Then look at IL14. It is a GOP incumbent, Hultgren, male against an African American challenger. RCP has only 1 poll, leans GOP +4. But when you go into the details among “types of people who voted in 2014/2016” they have him +6/+8.
NV3 is a tossup. It is an open seat. Only 1 RCP poll and it shows the Dem, Lee, up by 3. But they only polled 173 people so it’s a margin of error of 7.6! That means the Dem could be down close to 5. I couldn’t find any specific details on that poll. But Trump won that district by +1 and Obama won it by +0.8. Given that Obama got out more vote overall nationally (63%+) vs Trump (61%) I think this district leans more GOP than RCP lets on. If you factor in those national GoTV numbers from the presidential elections and realize there is no Obama type figure draw Dems to the polls and in a district won by Trump, the GOP candidate should win that race by 3%-5%.
The flavor is all in the sausage making.
I’ll dig some more when I have time because it interests me.
This could be an important indicator because as long as there has been early voting, 'Rats generally get more of their people to the polls and boast about these statistics in an effort to create a "snowballing" effect. But I haven't been hearing much about early voting this year. Guessing that MSM wouldn't tell you much about any news unfavorable to their buddies.
Of course the 'Rats pushed for early voting, because it offers more opportunities for cheating than the traditional system where everyone (except for absentees) votes on the same day. But with decreased support and increased desperation, just about all tactics that they have used in the past and/or are using currently are backfiring on them. Couldn't happen to more deserving bunch of pigs.
Dims are just trying to frame the “we wuz robbed!” narrative.
The Presidential Election of 2016 was akin the Battle of the Coral Sea. The advance was stopped.
These mid-terms are Guadalcanal. Hanging on by our teeth but we will prevail.
I can't wait for the A-Bomb in 2020.
I admit I’ve never been a Democrat. Since age of 18, before then really, I knew they were FOS. But I’ve never been more disgusted by them than I am now. The MSM always cover for them, and Obama+Hillary made so many blunders on the world stage its embarrassing. And yet they have gone so much lower in the last two years.
Trump Derangement Syndrome is so funny, and so accurate. They’ve completely lost their minds, and stripped off all their clothes. They have never displayed such naked lust for power. Hillary was shameless and it seems in the vacuum left without the Clinton’s they’ve gone mad. I can’t say they are listless, there is definitely a lot of coordination going on in their party. But they have deliberately made the choice to go lower and lower and more extreme and provocative. Hillary saying “irredeemable deplorables” might go down as one of the worst campaign decisions in history, and yet it truly is the way they feel and they have been proving it for 2 years running. They hate half the people in this country and don’t care to even try to hide it.
The blue wave is potty water, it’s the brown chunks inside that we need to look out for.
Most things about democrats are lies. Here’s a story on firms that provide fake protesters. (In the old days democrats hired off CraigsList... now the demand is too high)
__________________________________________
California company that hires protesters is accused of extortion
https://www.sacbee.com/news/business/article220427190.html
Crowds on Demand, a Beverly Hills company that’s an outspoken player in the business of hiring protesters, boasts on its website that it provides its clients with “protests, rallies, flash-mobs, paparazzi events and other inventive PR stunts. ... We provide everything including the people, the materials and even the ideas.”
I don’t follow this guy I just caught this link on another thread, and it just so happens that he mentions the race in VA10. A coincidence since that’s the race I randomly looked at. Scroll down a bit and read his tweets numbered 1-14. Specifically he says that the DNCC has had to go back into VA10 with a pile of more money to support their challenger - a race they thought they had locked to unseat the (R) incumbent.
https://twitter.com/larryschweikart
He thinks the GOP is looking a lot stronger than anyone wants to admit, not just VA10 but he seems to think NV Senate seat leans GOP and the shocker of all would be the OH Senate seat, where all the polls show the incumbent Brown (D) with a double digit lead. Not sure if he is reliable at all - I can’t recall why I know his name.
Anyway I looked at the most recent poll for the OH Senate race. Here are the internals: https://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/10_12_2018_marginals.pdf
Keep in mind that Trump won OH 52% to 44%.. He won by 8 points but the polls had him even. The polls had him +2, and he came in 5 points higher than the polls.. But in reading the OH Senate race poll you wouldn’t know that to be true. They have Brown the (D)incumbent, ahead +18%! Get into the questions like “do you support impeaching Trump” and they have it 54% in favor vs 40% opposed. Do you believe a state that voted +8 for Trump in 2016 suddenly wants to see him impeached by +14 in 2018? No way! That’s crazy. They have Trump at 41% approve 53% disapprove. Way off the national average for a state that voted him +8 vs Clinton. They have “Did Trump keep his promises to OH” at -1%. They also have “support/reject” Kavanaugh -6.5% which is way under the national average. None of that makes sense. So it strongly suggests that they have skewed the poll, probably in under-sampling Independents and oversampling Dems. OH is a strange case where they classify party affiliation by whether a citizen can prove they voted in a primary. So according to the SoS for OH, the registrations numbers should be 17%D - 25%R - 58%I. I can’t be certain but this could be a case where they just got sample groups way off from reality.
Overall, I guess the DNC would fear demoralizing their voters if they let on that they were behind, while the GOP would fear their voters will coast if they think they’re ahead. So imo it’s in everyone’s interest to play it like it’s close. Yet OH Senate race they are playing it like they are way ahead. Who knows, they may be... but that poll I read when you look at the internals doesn’t make sense at all.
“Why are you believing it?” I’ve asked ’em point-blank. “How many people do you run into who you know voted for Trump who wish they hadn’t?”
“Well, nobody.”
“Exactly my point! How many people do you know who voted for Trump claiming that the Democrats need to win now because Trump has to be stopped and all this tweeting has to be stopped and all these bad manners have to be?”
“Uh, nobody.”
You can take THAT to the bank! Red Tsunami, Ahead! MAGA!
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