Skip to comments.Why Do The Polls Keep Getting It Wrong? Many Republicans Have Stopped Taking Surveys.
Posted on 11/01/2018 6:42:52 PM PDT by 11th_VA
... I run an exit polling survey project in Boyle County, Kentucky as part of a regular community-based learning component of our political science courses at Centre College. Our students have surveyed over 1,000 randomly-selected voters on their way out of the voting booths in every fall election since 2011.
To examine these competing theories, I compared the results of the exit polls with the actual results in Boyle County in each of these recent elections. Central Kentucky is an especially appropriate place to test for such an effect given that the economic and demographic characteristics are favorable to a candidate like Mr. Trump (he won Boyle County with 62 percent of the vote). The results are shown here:
...The results shown in the graph demonstrate a clear trend. While our exit poll was almost spot-on in the 2011 election, it showed Republicans doing increasingly poor in our exit poll compared to actual results and Democrats doing increasingly better over five years of elections. In 2016, our exit poll showed Donald Trump winning 52.6 percent of Boyle County voters (he actually won 62.1 percent) and Hillary Clinton winning 47.4 percent (she actually won 33 percent)...
...As the polling industry has increasingly come to be perceived as part of the elite establishment by many populist conservatives, a growing proportion of the Republican electorate may simply be refusing to participate in public opinion polls. This, in turn, leads to their voting preferences being underestimated in public opinion surveys. Thus, many of the state-level polls were wrong in 2016 simply because many Trump voters told pollsters to take a hike...
(Excerpt) Read more at huffingtonpost.com ...
I can’t wait for Tuesday .. LOL !!! ... The trend is our friend !!!
And when I do take time to answer I lie to them.
They’re not ‘getting it wrong’.
They’re making it up.
Pollsters get through once... for about five seconds.
Idiot leftard. It’s like asking why the sun will rise tomorrow.
Mr. “I have a PH.d after my name yo!” needs another PH.d in common sense..
A few months ago I was called by a major polling service and I was asked a few demographic questions at the beginning. When i told them I was a white male over 40 they ended it.
Just got done doing that exact same thing!
Telling lies to these clowns comes easy for me.
because many Trump voters told pollsters to take a hike...
I tell each poll taker that I’m a union, hispanic male, with a HS degree and I vote a straight donkey ticket. Also I almost always vote if I’m out of jail and not on probation.
Goofing on the polls is fun.
they’re on to us
There was a story posted here the other day with a quote from a pollster who said he had to make 27,000 phone calls just to get 500 responses for one recent poll. That alone tells me that these polls don’t come close to representing actual voter sentiment.
It's been in my gut too - this suggests we could see a Red Wave in Red America Tuesday. Look when the trend started, right after 2011, when Obama was in office and the TeaParty movement started.
(words to live by...)
I’d tell them that my vote is none of their damned business.
Look at the Over/Under sample from say 2014. Imagine if all those 2018 Toss-Up races are off by that much - that means the Republicans PICK UP SEATS and we get to see ‘Blood in the Streets’ ... LOL !!!
We are also baiting Democrats by lying outright about our choices.
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