Posted on 11/05/2018 7:09:09 PM PST by yesthatjallen
FiveThirtyEight founder and election forecaster Nate Silver on Monday offered his final projections for the midterm elections, arguing that a number of factors are conspiring to make Republican chances of keeping the majority in the House "fairly slim."
Silver gave Democrats a roughly 86 percent chance of winning the majority in the House. The party must pick up at least 23 seats on Tuesday to retake the majority.
"Democrats need a couple of things to go wrong to lose tomorrow because not very much is going right for Republicans," Silver wrote.
Silver said Republicans still stand a slim chance of retaining the House majority thanks to a strong economy and favorably drawn districts. The latter factor, Silver wrote, forces Democrats to win the popular vote by at least 5 percentage points to secure the majority.
Democrats, however, are aided by President Trump’s low approval ratings, strong fundraising numbers, a large number of Republican retirements and a historical precedent of the president’s party losing ground in the midterms, Silver noted.
"Democrats have been dealt a good hand and have done a great job of playing it, maximizing their number of opportunities to make seat gains," Silver wrote. "There’s still a chance — about a 15 percent chance — that their voters won’t turn out in the numbers they need, and they’ll fall a few seats short."
"But it would require polling and a lot of other data to be fairly wrong, and it would defy a lot of historical precedent as to what happens in midterm elections under unpopular presidents," he added.
Republicans have a more favorable path in the Senate, where the party stands a roughly 80 percent chance of retaining the majority, Silver projected. There are nine GOP senators up for re-election this year, compared to 26 Democrats, 10 of which are running in states Trump won in 2016.
Republicans currently hold a 51-49 edge in the Senate.
My prediction, Wednesday AM Mr. Silver will still have his head where the sun don’t shine.
KMA Nate. You’re irrelevant.
They are ignorant. Some one convinced the younger ones that there is an electoral college involved in this midterm.
Mr. Silver-plated on Wednesday. morning.
Low approval rating???
I feel better this year than the last. Trump has stolen many marches and won many battles against Party D these last two years. We have now only to support him and the party with our vote!
It has been there for some time.
We will soon find out whether this republic has the will to survive, or will continue in a death spiral.
He gave Hillary Clinton a 92 percent chance of being elected president, so his chance of Republicans retaining the House is lower than Mrs. Clinton’s chance of being president.
They are complaining about the fact that when all R & D votes are tallied, for all congressional races, they could have a higher vote total and still not win the majority.
No he really didn’t it was more like 78% chance.
That's why he has been hedging his bets the last few days. He will claim "a couple things" must have gone wrong for the Democrats.
This is their new excuse for losing and delegitimizing the GOP.
They will add up all the votes for every House race, and if the utterly meaningless "raw vote" tally for Dems exceeds Reps, but they still get less than 23 seats, it will be deemed "unfair" and thus "illegitimate."
They are still making the same mistakes. Focusing on facts gained from past elections did not help them in 2016 and I pray to the Lord Jesus that they are just as wrong this time. That Americans will be given an opportunity to reverse many of the anti God culture that had threatened to swamp it. Time to complete the draining of it and for it to be filled with new rain from above.
Exactly. That's his OUT.
So there is a 20% chance Democrats will re-take the Senate but only a 14% chance the Republicans will keep the House.
Yeah-— that is compelling analysis /s
The 538 project started out with what seemed like good intentions, but it has morphed into something that is not what it was originally sold as. Nate Silver does not have enough meaningful data to calculate meaningful statistical figures.
The polls that he is supposedly relying on don’t even exist in some cases or are months old. Also most Republicans do not participate in polls that they know are being commissioned by leftists.
So his prediction last time only differed from reality by 78 percentage points. Not much of an endorsement for his 2018 prediction. A coin flip would have a better chance of being right than Nate Silver.
What is it with “win the popular vote” Democrats are claiming?
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I suspect it’s an attempt to rationalize and justify the riots already planned and organized.
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