Posted on 03/03/2020 2:02:27 PM PST by Mariner
China - the gift that just keeps on giving...
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Yeah. We just THOUGHT we won the Trade War.
No doubt the economic damage will far exceed the epidemiological damage.
“It was real stupid move by the Fed. This is not a financial crisis. It just showed the guberment has no idea of how to handle this mess which made more people nervous.”
I agree 100% unless they know something and are not telling us. Personally at my age I am quite heavy in Treasuries so I am not doing so badly considering how wacky this market is acting.
No damage has been done to the economy. Some people took profits and some took losses.
“...screen name contains an acronym...”
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No. You are wrong (as you are on many things).
RTS would be an acronym.
Repeal The 17th is not.
No points on a VA loan? Who with?
A lot of stocks are overvalued mainly due to liquidity/plunge protection teams that have been going on since Fall of 2008. Investors did not mind a lot of high P/Es especially with the tech industry. The uncertainty of the supply chain change all of this, plus the virus hurting the hospitality industry (Which cause a chain-reaction into other industries).
Fundamentally, the stock market is way overvalued anyway, what goes up must come down, coronavirus is one trigger other reactions like earning reports from last quarter and speculation (About the Fed yesterday) serve as positives.
BTW, future outlook is not grand either, government spending and deficits (Despite people plugging there ears) is the biggest hamper to our economy. Also, the National Debt is 108% to the nominal GDP. Not at Japan’s level, however, something that needs to be seriously looked at now (Along with deficit spending). Federal Reserve can only do so much.
“...and this looks so far like a once in a lifetime “black swan” that’s going to hit hard. Could not be a worse time..”
I disagree. This is about 1 thing and 1 thing alone. The corona virus and if there is one thing the Markets hate it is uncertainty. Because of the mixed messages coming from all over and the doomsayers in the media the players are making the moves on what they perceive sentiment is and right now the sentiment on main street is not good.
The virus thing will pass and things will pretty quickly return to normal. The market made a huge move Monday and a give back was expected. A retesting of the original lows of last Friday would not be unusual and in fact is also expected.
Seems like the market basically interpreted this as the Fed saying something along the lines of “yep..the world economy is screwed.
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I don’t think so. It’s more a case of buy on the rumor, sell on the news. The traders who correctly called the bottom on Friday made some quick profits today.
2019 levels? How about the levels of just a couple of weeks ago when records were set?
With on time delivery and the lack of Stocking by just about everybody now, it doesn’t take much to disrupt the entire Country and Economy.
“How long do you think it will be before we will reach 2019 levels again?”
I believe the market highs were in 2020 and just a couple of weeks ago.
We should be back within 60 days at the outside from when the public realizes the Coronavirus is no more dangerous than other strains and does not signify the end of the world.
I might have to refi my house.
God DARN autocorrect, too.
Dumped half my holdings last Thursday noon. Yesterday/today was a classic dead cat bounce. I’m on the sidelines till the dust settles.
Not in spite of but, BECAUSE OF. The market interpreted this move by the Fed as an Alarm. And, the market reacted with alarm.
The moron running the Fed is as tone-deaf as they come.
“How long do you think it will be before we will reach 2019 levels again?”
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Until the VIX stabilizes around 12.
Yeah. I could accept that.
I’m a banker. I understand the “market corrections” ongoing here. I just have a hard time realizing the (almost) overnight free-fall the market is taking. And the years and years it was take to recover.
And has the bottom been reached yet in terms of this market decline?
God only knows. We shall see.
“yep, the market was doing great today until the cut”
Exactly. The move caused panic when the market was recovering. This Fed chairman is suspect in my book. This looked like sabotage.
CNBC celebrating. The market had it’s biggest increase ever yesterday. The Fed should have done nothing. The move looked like panic and sent the market down 700 points.
Yes and no. The rate cut was anticipated and the reason the market went up yesterday. What happened today was a combination of the traders Buying on the rumor (Monday) and selling on the news (Tuesday) along with the seemingly panic driven move of the cut.
There was also the expectation that we would retest the recent lows.
Ok thanks, sounds reasonable. I just don’t trust any of these deep state characters.
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