Understanding How Nutty the Wuhan Coronavirus Panic Is

EconomicPolicyJournal.com ^ | March 9,2020 | Robert Wenzel

[DoughtyOne]

John, what's the matter with you? Don't you realize one in five
hundred and seventy-five thousand six hundred and ten people in
the United States are sick with this?

Don't you know that somewhere in the low single digits of people
who contract it will die of it.

This IS NOT the flu John!

d":^)

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TRUMP - PENCE
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[null and void]

Their [sic]as good as dead, eh?

My guesstimate:

If all 19,000 managed to get themselves exposed, roughly 15,000 will get infected. (~80%)

If 15,000 are exposed roughly 12,000 will get sick, roughly 3,000 will become asymptomatic carriers. (~80% and ~20% respectively)

Of the 12,000 overtly sick most will have minor symptoms. About 2,500 will have severe infections. (~20%)

If 2,500 are clinically ill, 500 (~20%)or so will only need outpatient treatment, 2,000 (~80%) will require hospital care.

Half of those will need ICU care, half of those will die. {~50%)

That's 1,000 Conservative leaders dead, heavily skewed towards the older, more experienced cohort.

Which 1,000 experienced and motivated leaders will we not need this election cycle?

What are your estimates for the steps I've outlined?

And what about the 15,000 that actually got infected?

How many people in their circle of mostly conservative friends, coworkers, and contacts will they infect?

Bring Out Your Dead

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

So far the false positive rate is 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

If a quarantine saves just one child's life, it's worth it.

[luvbach1]

Mo, people just hear there may be a shortage of TP so they rush out to get some before it’s all gone; ergo, a shortage is created!

[luvbach1]

No, people just hear there may be a shortage of TP so they rush out to get some before it’s all gone; ergo, a shortage is created!

[TigerClaws]

Viruses mutate.

Do a quick search on the Spanish flu. It hit first and the impact was on the infirm and elderly.

Then it mutated. Killed 675,000 Americans. 50 million worldwide.

There’s also a survival rate early when you can still get medical cars. Then there the medical care after the system collapses because it’s overwhelmed. Then they tell you to stay home and take the meds they give you. Like Italy. Death rate skyrockets.

Last study said there were 58,000 ventilators in all the hospitals in United States. Italy said 10% of cases are requiring ICU. It causes ARDS and that means ventilators. When they run out, you’ll see a prioritization. Thosenwith coverage versus those without. Elderly versus young. How do they decide who lives?

For some reason this is an economic and political issue when it should be all hands on deck bipartisan World War 2 level of action.

[Jane Long]

The average age of those who reportedly died from it is 80.

~~~~~

That WAS for the US.

Majority of that count/average includes the nursing home deaths.

A CA woman, in her 60’s, with NO known contact to anyone infected, or who has travelled internationally, died from cv, today.

This will bring the average age down.

[aMorePerfectUnion]

Saw this on Twitter, about the real situation in Lombardy Italy...

................................

Jason Van Schoor
@jasonvanschoor

From a well respected friend and intensivist/A&E consultant who is currently in northern Italy:

1/ ‘I feel the pressure to give you a quick personal update about what is happening in Italy, and also give some quick direct advice about what you should do.

2/ First, Lumbardy is the most developed region in Italy and it has a extraordinary good healthcare, I have worked in Italy, UK and Aus and don’t make the mistake to think that what is happening is happening in a 3rd world country.

3/ The current situation is difficult to imagine and numbers do not explain things at all. Our hospitals are overwhelmed by Covid-19, they are running 200% capacity

4/ We’ve stopped all routine, all ORs have been converted to ITUs and they are now diverting or not treating all other emergencies like trauma or strokes. There are hundreds of pts with severe resp failure and many of them do not have access to anything above a reservoir mask.

5/ Patients above 65 or younger with comorbidities are not even assessed by ITU, I am not saying not tubed, I’m saying not assessed and no ITU staff attends when they arrest. Staff are working as much as they can but they are starting to get sick and are emotionally overwhelmed.

6/ My friends call me in tears because they see people dying in front of them and they con only offer some oxygen. Ortho and pathologists are being given a leaflet and sent to see patients on NIV. PLEASE STOP, READ THIS AGAIN AND THINK.

7/ We have seen the same pattern in different areas a week apart, and there is no reason that in a few weeks it won’t be the same everywhere, this is the pattern: 8/ 1)A few positive cases, first mild measures, people are told to avoid ED but still hang out in groups, everyone says not to panick

2)Some moderate resp failures and a few severe ones that need tube, but regular access to ED is significantly reduced so everything looks great

9/ 3)Tons of patients with moderate resp failure, that overtime deteriorate to saturate ICUs first, then NIVs, then CPAP hoods, then even O2.

4)Staff gets sick so it gets difficult to cover for shifts, mortality spikes also from all other causes that can’t be treated properly.

[TigerClaws]

She’s glad now he was wearing it ...

[Fledermaus]

Yeah, but if we shouldn’t panic, why did Matt Schlap and other idiots self quarantine ?

Seriously, just saw him on Ingrahm saying don’t panic while panicking on Skype.

I’m not panicking and not worried at all.

[Jane Long]

Scary and sad account, from docs, of what is happening in Italy....

https://twitter.com/jasonvanschoor/status/1237142891077697538?fbclid=IwAR0qXCIn3lhGWN0mGUswy-_rsonaHJWtuKvwzcKlM1Resg-zVUhwEO8z8-w

[TigerClaws]

Sad but consistent with what we’ve read.

[Jane Long]

Yeah, but if we shouldn’t panic, why did Matt Schlap and other idiots self quarantine ?

Seriously, just saw him on Ingrahm saying don’t panic while panicking on Skype.

~~~~

Yep....if it’s ‘just the flu’ why quarantine all of the people coming off of these cruise ships?

Why quarantine, at all, if it’s ‘just the flu’?

When was the last time this country...or ANY country....quarantined for ‘just the flu’?

[TigerClaws]

Average treatment is 18 days. Long time. Victims are shedding the virus up to two weeks after it stops showing symptoms.

[Fledermaus]

Studies? Really? Let me guess, by “experts”.

I’m sure they were “just released” by people who somehow had time to accurately count exactly 50,000.

Amazing! Let’s panic like a Pavlovs dog.

[caww]

When I had the flu few yrs ago I was still coughing a month later!

[Fledermaus]

Oops, exactly 58.000

[Gene Eric]

COMCAST-19

[Fledermaus]

I was pointing out why Matt is a carnival barker.

[TigerClaws]

Because today we learned ...

The infection area is up to 14 feet proximity to someone infected.

That the flu the average is one will infect 8 other people. With COViD19 it’s 45.

It’s doubling every six days.

With full treatment in best circumstances the kill rate is 2-3%. But it collapses the medical system of Italy. Beds fill up. Healthcare providers get sick.

They’re likely lying to the public knowingly to prevent mass panic. Meanwhile, they’ve got healthcare lined up and they have plans to quarantine the major cities.

All of the downplaying is crowd control.

In China they can execute those violating quarantined n

What about here? Riots. Looting. Mass chaos without the ability to arrest and execute offenders.

[Drago]

Usually clicking on and reading the full article is a good practice on FR...in this case not so...it went down hill after the excerpt, some really badly researched & written journalism.