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Posted on 03/30/2020 6:51:25 PM PDT by BeauBo
total number of test results in USA
3-25 77K
3-26 98K
3-27 108K
3-28 109K
3-29 95K
3-30. 114K
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18oVRrHj3c183mHmq3m89_163yuYltLNlOmPerQ18E8w/htmlview?usp=sharing#
Can’t have exponential growth if you don’t have exponential testing growth
I’m anxious as to the next several days.
Tests are driven by complaints of symptoms.
Great website for statistics. Thank you for the article which contains the link to the Worldometers website. Please note that Worldometers had to revise up the numbers from yesterday due to reporting from NY state. The whole premise of the article was that the total number of new cases went down yesterday, but in fact the number was revised up, so the number of cases actually went up from Saturday. Today’s new cases rose again with 20,353 new cases in the USA. Sadly, the number of deaths was also rose, with 573 reported deaths.
Tests are driven by complaints of symptoms.
not everywhere
here in IL we can only test 4000 a day
they are trying to increase that to 10,000 a day later this week
also around 20% of the total cases in the US were positive
that is a high number compared to other countries such as South Korea
That means that we are still missing many cases
I look at Worldometer, other sources use different reporting cutoffs.
bttt
Right. I have a spreadsheet where I’ve recorded the US numbers since 3/13/2020 (with a couple of holes) and there have only been 3 days where the number of new cases went down.
Death rates have inched up but its been pretty steady the last few days at 1.8% of those infected have died.
The rates of western Europe countries are generally much worse.
When the daily death toll for the corona virus is posted, they should put it next to the daily death toll for the flu. It would be an interesting comparison.
Also, everyone dying with corona virus is said to have died from the virus. That is not necessarily so. Many of those people were already quite ill. So what killed them, the virus or what they already had?
Things started shutting down about 2 weeks ago, so we should see new cases flatten real soon.
I think its reasonable to assume the virus killed them. Do you think we have resources for extensive autopsies on infected corpses.? What would that accomplish?
For the most part, that is probably true. No there are not the resources to do a bunch of autopsies, but that doesn’t mean that everyone who died with the virus died of the virus. Some of those who died may very well have been close to death from other causes such as cancer.
I am willing to bet Dem Governors will just end it and expect everything to be normal in a few days, then get upset and surprised when numerous small businesses never reopen and even larger chin stores decide to close some locations.
Present!
China still hasn’t “opened up” despite all their claims to the contrary.
They are trying to hide that simple fact.
Let them open up their country to outsiders, so we can see what happens when you “open up”....
Never fear, any second now the leftist media will be claiming that it has quadrupled instead.
Remember, these are typically a self-selected group. They are testing people who have symptoms who have come forward. I wouldn’t read too much into that in a large outbreak region.
L8r
I think the only realistic way to assess this unusual situation is to strip away the particular name and origin which gives this outbreak an identity that other more ordinary influenza outbreaks do not or did not have, then compare results in total to the results in total for other years. Otherwise we will design a response that is such a bad precedent that we might never see a return to a normal economy, as more particular names are likely to be assigned to future “routine” flu outbreaks (if anything that kills thousands of people can really be considered routine).
A background objective should be the ability to identify at an early stage and neutralize all such outbreaks in the future. But we can’t be closing down the economy for every individual case, time after time. Should it have been done here or is this just a case of “this year’s similar thing is different?” ... hard to answer this. How do you answer it? If in fact fewer people die this winter than in a “normal” winter but most of them die from this COVID-19 outbreak, where does that leave us?
Closing down the optional parts of the economy for long periods of time is no small thing either. The focus needs to shift as quickly as possible to containment and neutralization in badly affected places and settings. A phased return to normalcy needs to be designed to minimize the spread beyond those already compromised areas. Otherwise the economic response will be far worse than we might imagine at this early stage.
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