Posted on 03/30/2020 6:51:25 PM PDT by BeauBo
There were a little more or less than 20,000 new cases per day for each of the past several days.
Over the past day, March 30, there were 21,778 new cases.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic#Epidemiology
Daily numbers are worthless unless factored with cases tested.
The ratio of new cases found divided by the cases tested is a valid number and at least in Washington state seem to be beginning to trend down.
3 to 5 days for a trend to genuinely appear. I’m looking for a glimmer of hope too, but let’s not be hasty.
CC
Phased in by rate of incidence. Areas with less positives/deaths reboot first.
CC
True. The important number is not going to be raw total of infections but the death rate. I think ultimately very large numbers of people will be infected, most without realizing it. Bending the curve on the death rate is really the number to watch.
Thank you. Understood. If the curve of daily new cases does peak out, it will have been hard to simulate that outcome by limiting tests. It will have some meaning. But we don’t know what the next days will bring. Thanks again.
> raw total of infections
If the actual daily counts of new infections does peak, that’s a big deal. There is not a death from a disease without the disease. Death counts will lag new case counts. New case counts are a “leading indicator.”
> raw total of infections
If the actual daily counts of new infections does peak, that’s a big deal. There is not a death from a disease without the disease. Death counts will lag new case counts. New case counts are a “leading indicator.”
Think there might be actual resistance to going to June if we are near May and the numbers don’t support doing so.
Thank you for sharing this.
That’s what I was getting at - how can the numbers be correct if not EVERYONE with symptoms is being tested?
There may be “more testing” being done, sure. I can give you that. How much more? Where? What about others with symptoms who are not being tested - what are those numbers?
The numbers are not accurate, whether done deliberately or not; they just do not reflect what is really going on out there.
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