Posted on 04/05/2020 2:52:56 AM PDT by DoughtyOne
A suggested calculation to determine effectiveness of sheltering. Numerator is number of new cases. Denominator is total cases less total deaths less total resolves. Compare percentage changes. My eyeballing says we went from over 20z% infection rate to 11% infection rate.
“””Just to clear some of the fog around testing: HOW MANY TESTS we have done compared to another country is meaningless.
We do not even have the ability to test rapidly when the diagnosis is in question, which leads to overconsumption of ICU negative pressure rooms and critically short supplies of PPE.
But that’s not the problem.
The problem is our failure to find and to isolate all the presymptomatic infections, and to isolate THEM to prevent the explosive spread we are seeing now. Countries that have stayed ahead of the curve and stayed in business (Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong) have tested huge fractions of their populations and intervened on spreaders before they got to third and fourth generation spread.”””
Here are a couple of comments.
1. I believe it is important to compare the number of tests done by country. As I posted yesterday the countries in Western Europe have performed more than twice as many tests as done in the USA.
How was Western Europe able to do so many tests compared to us?
Western Europe and the USA have about the same population (over 300 million) and have many other demographic similarities.
2. The Abbott Lab machines are being touted to do a test in 15 minutes. Thus each machine can do 4 tests per hour and if the machine is used 24 hours per day, each machine can do 96 tests per day. And the news reports are telling us there are 18,000 Abbott Lab machines currently in the USA. So we could potentially test 1,728,000 people each day with just the Abbott Lab machines.
3. Massive testing, especially in the ‘hot spots’ is how to detect and isolate those who are infected, but are not showing any symptoms.
Mark
The needs of difficult to manage cases with multi-organ failure is hard for most people to understand. Trump started to go towards that message about ventilators at the briefing on 4/3 and then he stopped...and said something like "you don't want to go there."
The public needs to know that a ventilator is not the cure. The machine is like a bridge and not a destination or guarantee of recovery.
Do you think that message is getting across to the general public?
Next up, the WH press will be asking about the potential shortage and supply chain of CRRT, ECMO equipment and all the IV medications that are needed to support critically ill patients with co-morbidities.
The public seems to think ventilators are a “lifeboat”. Anyone who has ever managed an ICU knows a ventilator is more of a “submarine” and not a real good one at that.
I've been workin', buildin' muscles
Oney's just been standin' 'round a gettin' soft
And today about four-thirty
I'll make up for every good night's sleep I've lost
When I'm gone I'll be remembered
As the workin' man who put his point across
With a right hand full of knuckles
Cause today I show old Oney who's the boss.
Hmmmm! What time is it? Four thirty!
Hey, Oney!
Oney! Ha ha ha ha!
....and I replaced "Oney" with "China"...
Thank you SO much!
so - what is stopping the US from doing 1M tests every day.
Is it health personnel? Is it drive in centers that need to be setup
Thanks.
does anyone know why the US has relatively so few recovered?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
14K vs 38K for Spain. Is this because of the way we record
Country,
Other Total
Cases New
Cases Total
Deaths New
Deaths Total
Recovered Active
Cases Serious,
Critical Tot Cases/
1M pop Deaths/
1M pop Total
Tests Tests/
1M pop
World 1,218,124 +16,671 65,841 +1,153 253,818 898,465 44,692 156 8.4
USA 311,637 +280 8,454 +2 14,828 288,355 8,206 941 26 1,656,897 5,006
Spain 130,759 +4,591 12,418 +471 38,080 80,261 6,861 2,797 266 355,000 7,593
Italy 124,632 15,362 20,996 88,274 3,994 2,061 254 657,224 10,870
Germany 96,471 +379 1,447 +3 26,400 68,624 3,936 1,151 17 918,460 10,962
France 89,953 7,560 15,438 66,955 6,838 1,378 116 224,254 3,436
China 81,669 +30 3,329 +3 76,964 1,376 295 57 2
Mark
Raycpa wrote:
“A suggested calculation to determine effectiveness of sheltering. Numerator is number of new cases. Denominator is total cases less total deaths less total resolves. Compare percentage changes. My eyeballing says we went from over 20z% infection rate to 11% infection rate.”
Doughty One,
Many thanks for your analyses!
Can Raycpa’s idea be incorporated into your reports?
“”””so - what is stopping the US from doing 1M tests every day.
Is it health personnel? Is it drive in centers that need to be setup”””””
If the premise that mass testing, especially in the ‘hot spots’ is valid, then why is the USA not testing upwards of 2,000,000 per day instead of the 216,463 tests done yesterday in the USA?
1. How many doctors, surgeons, and their staff are sitting around because people have postponed an elective procedure? Could those people start administering tests? Especially the Abbott Labs 15 minute test that appears to be a very simple procedure.
2. How many EMS, Fire, and Police personnel are sitting around? With so many people sitting at home, there are probably fewer car accidents and other accident victims needing their attention. Why can’t these trained people start administrating the Abbott Labs 15 minute test?
3. How many retired medical doctors, nurses, and lab technicians sitting at home doing nothing? Why can’t these trained people start administrating the Abbott Labs 15 minute test?
Again, if the premise is valid that testing is important, especially in hot spots to detect and isolate those with minimal or no systems, then, just maybe, President Trump needs to invoke the Defense Production Act and put the above list of trained people to work.
D1... I appreciate the fact that you question China’s numbers. For those reading your post for the first time I just want to emphasize that China’s ‘numbers’ are garbage. And because of that the rest of the world is in the deep-stuff.
MayflowerMadam nailed it in her response, and I’m really surprised you’re asking that question.
1. Metro New York
2. Ski Areas
3. New Orleans Area
4. South Georgia, around Albany
[The next county, the first one not in these categories, is Wayne County Michigan -- Detroit]
The number is cases per million population.
id blaine 18641
ny Rockland 15051
ny westchester 13501
la orleans 10178
ny Nassau 9838
ny queens 8861
NY Suffolk 8284
ny Bronx 8219
LA st j bap 7780
GA Dougherty 7523
NY ny city 7498
NY orange 7247
NY Richmond 7078 [Staten Island]
LA st James 7023
LA Jefferson 6910
GA Terrell 6434
NY kings 6339 [Brooklyn]
nj Bergen 6194
GA early 6185
CO eagle 6126
UT summit 5677
NJ Passaic 5666
co Gunnison 5442
NY manhattan 5381
NJ union 5272
la st Bernard 5230
NJ Hudson 5221
la st Charles 4780
ga lee 4566
NJ Essex 4516
This data is hand-harvested from the NY Times web site, but should be pretty complete. The times site has raw numbers and also a "per capita" tab
Thanks, as a Floridian I was glad to see no Florida counties in the top 30. Miami-Dade and Broward counties have been the two hot spots in Florida.
why was Rockland and Westchester hit so hard? I thought it might be Queens etc.
Westchester includes new Rochelle. First place with a lot of cases and had spread before anybody knew anything. Rockland is the next county north. Lots of Hasidic Jewish communities. Large close knit families. Lots of
Very frequent religious gatherings in very close quarters. The real lesson is that where you end up depends more on when and how you start than on what kind of people you are. The New York figures are staggering and there is some demographic difference but not as much as people want to think. Suffolk county is way out on Long Island. Mostly suburban white. It still very dense compared to rest of the country and close to two million people. Their rate is same range as the Bronx.
They are in top couple of hundred. Those I posted were over 3000 per million. Dade is well over 1000 now and broward close behind. For comparison US total is now over 800! Dragged up by New York. Most states around 200-300.
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