Border Wall System Update (as of 27 Apr?)

@USBPChief (twitter) ^ | 27 Apr, 2020 | Chief Rodney Scott

[BeauBo]

170 miles completed, 201 miles under construction, 360 miles in pre-construction.

(Most miles completed in a single week yet - 8.)

[BeauBo]

No "as of" date on this week's chart.

They are switching over to a new process for reporting (on the new Border Wall System Web Page: https://www.cbp.gov/border-security/along-us-borders/border-wall-system# ), so there may be some changes to the report cutoff date, that might make the data not equivalent to past reports (e.g. and extra day might be included).

Maybe they just had to report 170 miles complete, because the President used that number, and they will get their ass handed to them if they contradict him publicly. Any error would be slight however, at recent rates - within what could be made up by the next weekly report. I was expecting about 7 miles last week, and they report 8. That is feasible.

Bottom Line: We are building Border Wall System like gangbusters, and illegal immigration across the Southern Border has ground to a near halt during the Coronavirus lockdown. A lot more Border Wall System is coming down the pipeline, at an increasing rate of construction.

[Dacula]

Thanks BeauBo!

[spokeshave]

Good job Everybody...best EVAH

Trumpin" and Wallin"

[bakkentom]

35 weeks for rest of year. Assume an average of 10 miles per week. 350 +170 = 520 miles. Realistic?

Those first 500 very visible and a campaign asset.

Thx for the attentiveness on this issue.

[thinden]

Maybe they just had to report 170 miles complete, because the President used that number, and they will get their ass handed to them if they contradict him publicly. Any error would be slight however, at recent rates - within what could be made up by the next weekly report. I was expecting about 7 miles last week, and they report 8. That is feasible.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

good psychological milestone that’s easy to remember.

plus, makes the Boss happy.

thanx for keeping us updated on this important project.

[BeauBo]

“520 miles (bu the end of the year). Realistic?”

Possible, but it doesn’t seem likely. Seems like the President is continually having to pressure the staff, just to make the existing 450 mile goal by the end of the year.

Almost 250 days left in the year, so we would need to average over a mile per day (1.12) to make 450, and about 1.4 miles per day to reach 520 by December 31st (which would roughly mean ramping up to around 2 miles per day on a pretty straight growth curve from a mile per day now).

The Chief of Engineers LTG Todd Semonite (a very sharp guy), assured the President publicly last week, that he was on track to meet the 450 goal by end of year.

Regardless, lots of great progress on priority miles.

The downside is the late start in Texas, due mainly to the Land Acquisition challenges there (but other unique challenges as well). Although, a lot is funded (well over 200 miles), and over a hundred miles already contracted, just a few miles have been built there yet, and the pace of construction is still painfully slow.

Recent waivers in the Rio Grande Valley, an increase in Eminent Domain court filings, and expected May contract awards in the Laredo Sector, seem to indicate that construction should finally pick up steam down there over the Summer and Fall.

[silverleaf]

Great drone video
Trumps Wall
https://youtu.be/RJ6FX1_yXJU

[BeauBo]

“Great drone video”

That is a great one - super high quality. I hope that guy does an update.

Thanks Silverleaf.

[BeauBo]

“520 miles (by the end of the year). Realistic?”

Actually, there is an unprecedented overhang of money waiting to go to work. So the high bound of what is possible, actually might even exceed even 520 miles.

There is enough money there, that if the logjam breaks in a big way soon (quick contract awards and quick construction starts, across the board), we could actually exceed 520 miles completed by the end of this year. May is shaping up for another big round of awards, as alluded by a sample of details of nine projects, recently revealed in documents in a lawsuit (Sierra Club, in the Ninth Circuit).

If new norms for quick starts emerge (as happened a year ago, when DoD first started contracting Border wall with their own budget), we could conceivably ramp up to two miles per day (or more) for the second half of the year. DoD still has about $2.3 billion to award out of this year’s Counter-Narcotics (section 284) funds, that could drop at any time, and a bunch of last year’s money as well.

The bottom Line is that about $6 billion was put on contract in 2017, 2018 and 2019 combined. A bit more than $12.1 billion could be put on contract this year ($3.6 billion of that has not yet been transferred for contracting, and is subject to ongoing legal challenge).

About $1.5 billion has been contracted in recent weeks, so conceivably, about $7 billion more could be awarded in the next couple of months, and potentially put thousands of additional construction workers on the border. That would be an historic event in scale, but the money is there for an upside surprise, if the contracting folks and the Contractors themselves have prepared a huge surge, and the Land Acquisition efforts have a big breakout in Texas as well.

These are shovel ready jobs, to help stimulate the post-COVID recovery.

Based on more conservative historical norms however, the expectation is 450 miles completed at the end of this year, and 750 or 850 (total) by the end of 2021 - which would be an awesome success, transforming border security, putting us in the ballpark of full operational control of the border (coupled with the huge technology rollout that is occurring, and achieving the growth targets in Customs and Border Protection personnel).

[bakkentom]

Can a priority be put on the construction work and purchase of materials to get citizens back to work fast on all of the segments of border wall using coronavirus stimulus funds in the fourth phase shortly.

Make stretch and her rats vote on it. This is infrastructure.

[bakkentom]

Lots of those TX and NM truckers need work now that oil fields there are getting choked down.

[BeauBo]

“Can a priority be put on the construction work and purchase of materials to get citizens back to work fast on all of the segments of border wall using coronavirus stimulus funds in the fourth phase shortly.”

Of course they could, but I would be shocked if they did. The Democrats have knowingly allowed the main funding for the Wall (diversion from the Military budget) to continue again this year ($7.4 billion more), only on the basis of them being allowed to continue to publicly appear to fight it.

I don’t see them ever being able to (politically) support the Wall, with their base being what it is.

A bigger issue, is that there just might not be any need for more money. The slow moving budget justification process (although greatly accelerated for the Wall Program), came to its conclusion in December of 2018, when an exhaustive analysis completed its extensive vetting, and was finally accepted by Congress.

The Bottom Line, is that with this year’s diversion of funds from DoD, the barrier required in that Comprehensive Plan is paid for. The Administration is not even proposing to ask for another big budget next year.

The Administration has dropped next year’s budget planning figure down to $2 billion, which is just about the annual wedge in the ten year budget baseline, plus a bit of negotiating room, so they have something to appear to give something up in negotiations.

As long as they get all of the currently identified money on contract and officially obligated on the Government’s books, the whole Wall (about 1,100 miles, as needed under that analysis) should be baked into the cake. When Obama took office, the Bush-era projects in that condition all continued to completion. It is a very significant degree of protection for the Program, that seems likely to be achieved by the end of this year.

It is not a guarantee that a radical Democratic Administration would not invoke an unprecedented approach to halting ongoing construction if they win the White House (as opposed to just halting new contract awards, which Obama did early on), but it is very strong protection.

[Balding_Eagle]

Here is another one from the same guy done in March.

Very good also, covers essentially the entire length from Pacific to the Gulf.

Well worth the 11 minutes.

Trump’s Wall from Sea to Shining Sea

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=piVd_6VPpyM

[BeauBo]

“Can a priority be put on the construction work”

In a more general sense (not tied to any additional Coronavirus funding bills), there are things that might possibly be done by the Administration, to speed things up.

I am sure they have been trying to find ways. We have seen them make surprising advances before, that changed the game bigly, like the Emergency Declaration, and the shocking speed with which DoD was able to shorten contracting lead time last year (one month, instead of 6-9).

A big thing that we are seeing this year, is that DoD is just modifying last year’s existing contracts (e.g. doubling the miles on the task order), rather than awarding new contracts. This may have been planned last year, or even much earlier, as a way to speed up the process. The contractors are already up and running with the whole overhead and supply chain already going, and can just ramp up.

In fact, the Contractors most likely had advance notice of this planned approach, to have the needed long lead time to prepare their surge, as soon as the new money would become available. This year for the first time, Federal Acquisition Regulations were waived, as well as Environmental Regulations for the Border Wall, allowing such sole source awards. Essentially, all the contracting restrictions are being lifted, so far this year.

The other big holdup is Land Acquisition in Texas. The Administration also shows some signs of pulling out the stops on those timelines. The number of cases filed in Court by the Government, and the size of the cases, has been growing pretty quickly- March was biggest month yet with 12 cases, one of which was for the whole City (Municipal properties) of Laredo. The Federal Government can condemn land and start building very quickly (same day, in theory), but usually tiptoes around for years, to settle with private property owners, before building something.

[LibWhacker]

Saw this the other day on the CBP website and it really made me stop and think. How much of the border is this rugged? Can we build a wall over it and how much extra will it cost?
Two Border Patrol UH-60 Black Hawk helicopters patrol the southwest border region

[BeauBo]

Looks like Big Bend Sector of the border (around the middle of the Texas border).

That is about the last big part that would ever get barrier, if we built out every mile of the border.

Building barrier (and patrol road, and installing utilities) on the steep parts of mountains, seems to be something that we have not yet cracked the code on doing, in anything close to a cost effective way. The great bulk of what is being built in California, Arizona and New Mexico, is the flat areas between the mountains. There are hundreds of miles in Texas that are remote and very rugged. "Nothing but miles and miles, for miles and miles", as they say. Here is the Santa Elena Canyon in Big Bend National Park. The border is the middle of the river:

The Comprehensive Plan calls for about 1,100 miles of barrier, along a border that is 1,954 miles long. Some of that 1,100 miles may be counting secondary barrier, so there would be even some fewer number linear miles with border barrier. I estimate about 100 miles of secondary barrier - maybe more. They have announced long runs (~30 miles) of secondary barrier already in the Yuma Sector in Arizona (Barry Goldwater Test Range). So perhaps under a thousand linear miles, out of 1,954 would get barrier.

221 mile of existing barrier is assessed as effective so perhaps under 800 linear miles need new barrier. The total Trump Program that is currently funded, is for 731 miles (primary and secondary combined, which includes the 170 completed). Another $3.6 in FY2020 Military Construction (MILCON) funding has been announced as intended for diversion to the Wall, but it has not yet been formally transferred, and is the subject of lawsuits. So the Program is roughly fully funded, to put barrier in about half of the border miles - everywhere that the exhaustive analysis indicated it is needed.

Last year's MILCON was fought all to the Supreme Court. The Supreme Court allowed the spending to go forward (Presidential Emergency and all) until the lawsuits were finally settled - but they are still underway, and new suits oppose this year's MILCON spending.

I think when they get close to finishing contracting out the billions of other dollars waiting to go to work, the FY20 MILCON will get transferred, right on cue. Last year, the Supreme Court had to weigh in during July, (on an emergency expedited basis) to lift the lower court injunctions. This year could be a similar schedule, as the lawsuit has already been at the Ninth Circuit for some time already.

[LibWhacker]

Building barrier (and patrol road, and installing utilities) on the steep parts of mountains, seems to be something that we have not yet cracked the code on doing, in anything close to a cost effective way.

I'm thinking we should look at backing off from the most rugged mountainous regions 20, 30, or even 100 miles if necessary, to somewhere where it is flat, and building the wall there. Just as we don't cede our front yards to trespassers when we build the walls of our homes 100 feet from the sidewalk, we wouldn't in any sense be ceding the mountainous territory to Mexico. Indeed we would make clear to them that that land was still ours and always will be. We will be patrolling it and keeping an eye on it. They are not to build there, dump there, mine there, or allow any people in there. It would be our responsibility not to allow people out of there, and theirs not to allow people in.

Thanks for another informative, thoughtful response, BB. I always look forward to them!