Skip to comments.Media Learned Nothing after their 2016 Polling Disaster
Posted on 06/30/2020 5:59:08 AM PDT by Kaslin
Harken back four years ago and recall how the media confidently predicted a Hillary Clinton landslide electoral victory over Donald Trump. They held firm to this prediction even when the election was all but over.
At 10:20 PM ET on November 8, 2016, election night, the New York Times confidently proclaimed, in the manner of Baghdad Bob, that Hillary Clinton had an 85 percent chance of winning the election. Long faces and tears graced cable news election night coverage shows by then and Hillary probably was on her second bottle of chardonnay, drowning her sorrows over a coronation that was not meant to be. Yet the paper of record continued to push the big lie.
Last week Politico reassured its Beltway audience that, Biden extends lead over Trump amid protests. Citing a Fox News Poll of 1343 registered voters, they giddily reported Biden with a 12-point lead.
They did not survey likely voters as more accurate pollsters such as Rasmussen Reports does, but those simply appearing on voter rolls, even if many of them dont turn out to vote on election day.
Of those surveyed the self-described political affiliation was 47 percent Democrat and 41 percent Republican, a six-point swing favoring the DNC medias preferred candidate. When respondents were asked who they would vote for, 50 percent said Biden while 38 percent said Trump. Take away the Democrat oversampling and its only a 6-point margin.
Panic time for Republicans. This must be it for Trump and his supporters. How can Trump overcome a double-digit deficit to the Democrat candidate? Just look at Trumps Tulsa rally with empty seats despite over a million ticket requests.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
The polls were right in 2018. I don’t want to hear spin about Trump not being on the ballot then.
Really doubt that rational, decent people will accept an unsolicited call from a stranger and then discuss their personal politics with that stranger. They just don’t answer or hang up. The polls are structurally flawed. Also pollsters know how to please whoever pays them.
Trump supporters are even more secretive than they were in 2016, making polls less reliable than before. I refuse to answer any questions regarding my voting decisions.
2018 was won with voter fraud in southern CA.
He seems to think a legitimate poll would have equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans. There's no logical reason for that. That doesn't mean that poll is accurate, but his logic is wrong.
The media are MARXISTS. Its their revolutionary narrative that matters not truth.
I used to work at a ‘survey’ call center. If Conservatism was recognized AT ALL, there was no single survey question or statement which put Conservatism in a positive light or that properly represented Conservatism.
In all political questions, you could NOT select for a Conservative response without practically admitting that you tear babies in half and eat them.
No one in their right mind should EVER do a survey
They don’t care if the polls are right... The polls are just a tool they use to impact an election
If you're going by the final polls, they were largely accurate. I don't think you'd find that they were as accurate if you looked at the June polls. Certain ones were way off right before the election. For example, Quinnipiac announced that Gillum and Nelson both had 7 point leads in FL in their final polls.
People who answer polls want to be polled. Many Trump supporters avoid or hang-up on pollsters, or lie when polled. NEVER let them see you coming.
My theory is that anti-Trump polls are the established media’s way of making the Presidential election more of a rat race.
A ton of advertising dollars — on both sides — are at stake. If the truth was published: that Biden is getting his butt kicked, political advertising would crash since the public would lose interest in the contest.
This helps to explain why even WSJ and Fox polls show Biden leading.
Interesting story from Forbes on the billions spent on advertising.
The lesson they learned is they didn’t do enough to get the Hildabeast elected, they need to lie, smear and and ignore even more truths this time.
When your only tool is a hammer...
...swing it harder!
I think you might have called me. A few questions in I tumbled to the fact it was a push poll, called the lady on it, she owned up to it and explained she needed the job, I commiserated (the economy was in the toilet at the time).
We continued the poll, I gave the absolutely opposite and most extreme answers to the ones they were pushing.
She was in stitches by the end of it and genuinely thanked me for making her day!
I never get polled (I think most of them just poll the northeast corridor anyway except the regional pollsters) but if I were polled, sure, I’d lie. Then I’ll make some absurd comment just to see what the pollster might do.
“Sure, I’m voting for (Democrat). I’ll enjoy watching my neighborhood burn down after defunding the police.”
“You bet I’m voting for (Democrat). I intend to vote at least 20 times in support.”
“No question I’m voting for (Democrat). I want to see America become the next Venezuela.”
If you ever get stopped by a tv crew, this is how you should answer, particularly if it’s live.
You left out cheating. They were so confident in 2016 that they didn't feel they needed to engage in widespread cheating. They will not make that mistake again.
It is no longer polling...
And accuracy doesn’t matter, only repetition of the lie.
Most polls at this stage of the race are inaccurate, by design. The purpose of public polls in Jun/Jul are to persuade voters and to bring eyeballs to their media outlet. They are a marketing tool, not a measure of voter intent. In October, polls must be more accurate, because their results will be measured against the actual outcome that that metric will be important as the pollsters try to sell their product next time. Right now they are working to please their customer, the media, who want bad results for Trump. It’s not complicated.
Biden tossed his hat in the ring 6 times, aborting half. The likelihood of a 2-time-loser losing 3 times is far higher than a 2-time-loser winning on the third try.
Oh the “learned” all right. They just learned the wrong lesson. To the MSM, the lesson was that they did not do enough push polling to get the results that they wanted. So in their view, it is time to re-double their efforts.