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SPECIAL REPORT: RUSSIAN STRIKES MORE EFFECTIVE AS UKRAINE EXHAUSTS DEFENSES
Institute for the Study of War ^ | 4/12/24 | Riley Bailey and Frederick W. Kagan

Posted on 04/12/2024 7:26:38 PM PDT by hardspunned

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To: aMorePerfectUnion

Not even that! The deal the Ukes and Russians worked out 250,000 dead Ukes ago left the four now Russian oblasts in Ukrainian hands. Of course, DC will kill every last Uke before they allow such “aggressive neutrality” to take root.


21 posted on 04/12/2024 8:27:19 PM PDT by hardspunned (Former DC GOP globalist stooge)
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To: Petrosius

I don’t have to believe Putin about anything to see what neocons have done.
Your pigeonholing is disingenuous.


22 posted on 04/12/2024 8:27:36 PM PDT by EEGator
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To: toddausauras

The NATO/DC Regime is going to try to create an insurgency.

But they will be trying to mobilize a population that in many cases has moved to the West, or is very demoralized and feels betrayed.

And also that Ukrainian irredentist population now has a much more realistic view of the support the West can actually provide, vs. the promises.

Not to mention the Western weapons, equipment and training didn’t turn out to be the wonder weapons as claimed.


23 posted on 04/12/2024 8:30:23 PM PDT by Reverend Wright ( Everything touched by progressives, dies !)
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To: hardspunned

The only one responsible for this war is Putin; you know, the one who invaded twice.

There was no agreed to peace deal. The Russians were demanding that the Ukrainians limit their armed forces to 85,000 men, something that would have left them defenseless and which they would never agree to. But keep repeating the lie if it makes you sleep easily at night.

I want this war to end as soon as possible. And that could happen if the Russians just went home. It amazes me that there are some who put the responsibility for these deaths on the ones who are defending their country and not on those who are attacking it.


24 posted on 04/12/2024 8:32:48 PM PDT by Petrosius
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To: aMorePerfectUnion

The only ethnic Russian province is Crimea. If Putin were to offer to withdraw from the rest of Ukraine and be allowed to keep Crimea I think that the Ukrainians might accept it.


25 posted on 04/12/2024 8:37:19 PM PDT by Petrosius
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To: Petrosius

This war became likely when NATO was expanded rather than disbanded by Clinton.

This war became inevitable with the Maidan coup in 2014.

Russian can’t lose this war. It is on their land border.

The DC Empire can lose any number of overseas wars and it doesn’t really matter for Regime elites in the USA.

Russia is supposed to be blasé about a hostile alliance 4 hours drive from Moscow.

When USSR proxy forces were 90 miles from Florida the DC MIC lost its sh*t, and nearly killed us all.


26 posted on 04/12/2024 8:38:37 PM PDT by Reverend Wright ( Everything touched by progressives, dies !)
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To: hardspunned

OK, it’s not anything the Russians happen to be doing right, but that the West is not supporting the Ukes.


27 posted on 04/12/2024 8:39:09 PM PDT by glorgau
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To: Reverend Wright

NATO will not be needed to start a resistance movement. Stop treating the Ukrainians as if they have no desire to defend themselves from the Russians.


28 posted on 04/12/2024 8:39:17 PM PDT by Petrosius
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To: Petrosius; EEGator

“Nonsense. Stop trying to justify the unjustifiable. Putin has for years complained about “Lenin’s mistake” in recognizing Ukraine’s right to independence. In his mind, and that of many other Russians, Ukrainians are just rebellious Russians,...”


If the USSR was divisible, why isn’t Ukraine divisible ?


29 posted on 04/12/2024 8:40:40 PM PDT by Reverend Wright ( Everything touched by progressives, dies !)
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To: hardspunned

The inbred Kagan Klux Klan that is enriched off of American and others’ blood realizes they can’t hide reality anymore.


30 posted on 04/12/2024 8:40:54 PM PDT by Trumpisourlastchance
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To: Reverend Wright

If this war is really about NATO expansion then let Putin offer to withdraw in exchange for Ukrainian neutrality. This war is not about NATO expansion but Russian.


31 posted on 04/12/2024 8:41:16 PM PDT by Petrosius
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To: Petrosius

“If this war is really about NATO expansion then let Putin offer to withdraw in exchange for Ukrainian neutrality. “


NATO’s promises about future expansion are no longer credited in Russia.


32 posted on 04/12/2024 8:44:03 PM PDT by Reverend Wright ( Everything touched by progressives, dies !)
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To: Reverend Wright

The Soviet Union divided because its ethnic states no longer wished to be under Russian rule. Donbas is ethnically Ukrainian, not Russian as some have falsely proclaimed. As for Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, they are undisputedly Ukrainian. Ukraine is not dividing, it is being carved up.


33 posted on 04/12/2024 8:47:18 PM PDT by Petrosius
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To: Reverend Wright
NATO’s promises about future expansion are no longer credited in Russia.

That's rich. What about Russia's promises to respect Ukrainian sovereignty? NATO expansion happened because they were invited in, not because it was forced upon any nation. Have you ever stopped to ask why all those eastern European nations wanted to join NATO in the first place?

34 posted on 04/12/2024 8:51:12 PM PDT by Petrosius
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To: toddausauras

“One thing I do know from studying the eastern front is that Russia will not lose so close to home. “


Yup.

Army Group South (the largest) went thru Ukraine.

That border is a 4 hour drive from Moscow, and when this is all over, no Ukrainian military (let alone NATO military) will be allowed anywhere near that border.

I think a lot of the Russian hints and feints about Odessa are a ruse to disguise what is coming, and where.


35 posted on 04/12/2024 8:53:18 PM PDT by Reverend Wright ( Everything touched by progressives, dies !)
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To: Petrosius

Doesn’t matter.

Russian believes they were promised no NATO expansion East in 1991.

NATO “pinky swear” promises about Ukraine now won’t matter.

Not to mention they have said the opposite publicly.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/11/world/europe/ukraine-nato-summit-biden.html

This war is going to be settled on the ground. And the final front line will be determined by Russian defensive terrain needs, not Ukraine ethnic mix, or anything else.

To me, that means the likely settlement line is the Ternopil River. I was ridiculed 6 months ago for suggesting such a thing. But it no longer seems so implausible, does it ?


36 posted on 04/12/2024 8:59:30 PM PDT by Reverend Wright ( Everything touched by progressives, dies !)
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To: hardspunned
$61 billion wouldn't help. It will just result in more Ukrainians dying and Russia being forced to take more territory.

All it might do is delay the outcome of the war until after the election, which is exactly what Biden wants.

37 posted on 04/12/2024 8:59:58 PM PDT by Kazan (Megan C. bet me, lost the bet and was humiliated!)
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To: Petrosius

Why would disenfranchised voters in East and South Ukraine ever want to go back to Kiev?


38 posted on 04/12/2024 9:00:10 PM PDT by Jan_Sobieski (Sanctification)
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To: Petrosius

“Donbas is ethnically Ukrainian, not Russian as some have falsely proclaimed. “


they secede within days of the 2014 coup.

And Ukraine could not retake them in 8 years of attacks (unlike, Odessa, Mariupol etc) because Ukraine has so little popular support on the ground.

If the USSR was divisible, then Ukraine was and is divisible. All it took was enough people to support it.

But we are passed that now. Ukraine being promised NATO means that the Eastern border of whatever remains of Ukraine is going to be much further West than anyone imagined at the start of this thing.


39 posted on 04/12/2024 9:04:28 PM PDT by Reverend Wright ( Everything touched by progressives, dies !)
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To: Petrosius
Basically, most of Ukraine was always Russian territory historically before Russia's collapse. And if not so, why did western Nazi Ukraine outlaw the ethic Russian language in public if your statement is true?

The Russian Ukraine was actually one of the more stable land masses in European history, as the time map shows.

.


40 posted on 04/12/2024 9:16:29 PM PDT by Karl Spooner
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