And Now, the Good News about Smallpox

Slate ^ | October 26, 2001 | Jon Cohen

[ignatz_q]

I've been making essentially this same argument for weeks. While the CDC has to cover their bases, the immunization protocol used before the erradication of smallpox means that the worst case scenarios of immunity lasting only a few years simply can't be true for most recipients.

[alethia]

Thanks for the post, ignatz_q. The thing that struck me about this information is that a smallpox attack against our country is an attempt to wipe out our future by attacking our children and our young people. Anyone who thinks otherwise is ignorant or a fool.

The gravity of this is almost too much to process. I had my vaccine back in 1956. My husband had his in 1955 or 1956. Our son, who is 22, was not vaccinated. I am totally enraged at the mere thought.

[arkfreepdom]

True, but if 30% of our children die, life will not be worth living for many people.

[Sabertooth]

data from a 1902-1903 smallpox outbreak in Liverpool, England, strongly suggests otherwise. A study analyzed the impact of the disease on 1,163 Liverpudlians, 943 who received the vaccine during infancy, and 220 who were never vaccinated. The study further separated people by age and by the severity of their disease. In the oldest age group, 50 and above, 93 percent of the vaccinated people escaped severe disease and death. In contrast, 50 percent of the unvaccinated in that age bracket died, and another 25 percent had severe disease. To put it plainly, the vaccine offered remarkable protection after 50 years.

[manx]

I wonder if the arabs are that stupid. If they release smallpox here, it will kill some of us but we will get it under control pretty quickly.

However, it is bound to spread to other parts of the world where they don't have money for prevention. It is bound to get back to the middle east, with international travel the way it is now. Far more of them will die.

[ignatz_q]

I am totally enraged at the mere thought.

I can understand that, but I'm not so angry about the situation. For one thing, there is still exactly zero evidence that any smallpox exists except for two tiny, secure amounts in disease research facilities in the U.S. and Russia. For another, the disease does seem to be erradicated as a natural pathogen.

I'm not trying to downplay the possibility that it could be used for an attack, but the odds are much, much Even if Iraq or a terrorist group has smallpox, it's very hard to handle safely, and even harder to deliver effectively. I want us to start stockpiling vaccine to be safe, but I'm just not sure that mass-innoculation is the answer at this point.

[JenB]

Great. So I'll die, my brothers and sisters will die - but our parents and their contemporaries will be fine. Oh well; they've got enough time to have a couple more kids, then, and repopulate America. Of course, it'll really wreck the social security system!

Honestly, at the first sign of smallpox, I'm gonna go find some cows and vaccinate myself. Anyone have James Herriot's number, because I don't know what cowpox looks like.

[arkfreepdom]

I believe that is the plan....stockpile 300 million. The vaccine is effective if giving early in the course.

[walden]

No-- the really good news is that the vaccine we have can ALL reserved for our children, who were never vaccinated. The rest of us can just take our chances until we get the new vaccines on order for delievery next year or so. I think this is GREAT news-- particularly since other stuff indicates that those 15 million doses can be diluted at least 5 to 1 and still be equally effective (they date from when there was real dosage overkill). So, there's plenty for all the young people who never got vaccinated.

[arkfreepdom]

giving=given...my bad.

[Zviadist]

Now I get it: this whole friggin thing is a plot by the geriatric crowd to keep their social security. The lengths these people go to...

[Sabertooth]

But if 60% of the population is relatively immune, it makes it harder for an epidemic to get out of control, and creates a firewall of high-immunity which would aid the effectiveness of a quarantine if there is an outbreak.

It also means that if the 15 million doses on hand can be effectively diluted to 75 million (the CDC's stated goal), the real target population for the vaccine is down to around 110 to 120 million.

We could make giant strides toward "herd immunity" in a hurry, in the event of an emergency.

[MHGinTN]

If, if ... if they kill 30% of our children, several countries in the Middle Eastern region ahd better cease to exist. Sadly, we the people have condoned the serial killing of more than 40 million of our children since 1973. When will such foolishness stop?

[Sabertooth]

I wonder if the arabs are that stupid.

Why?

They're goading us into a war that will go worse for them than us, whatever happens. But they're still spoiling for a fight.

[martian_22]

We can thank the UN and the WHO for recommending the end of vaccinations. Those who objected back then for the exact reasons we see now were ignored and called names.

Brings a whole new meaning to the phrase, "It's for the children.".

[goodnesswins]

And, if all those under 30+ are gone, just how will there be any money FOR SOCIAL SECURITY??????? You think there's a trust fund somewhere?

[Sabertooth]

See post #12.

[Senator Pardek]

Thanks for the "good" news. They stopped vaccinating by the time I came out of the chute.

[wimpycat]

Hopefully, since breastfeeding has come back in vogue in the past 30 years or so, many children may have gotten some sort of protection from their mothers who were vaccinated. It may help them a little bit; it may make the difference between life and death.

My mother vaccinated me herself at a time when it was becoming less common to give smallpox vaccines (she was a nurse). My doctor had not ordered one for me. Since all this talk about smallpox, I have been thinking that it has to count for something, even thirty or so years after the fact. Maybe it will make the difference between life and death, or the difference between a mild case and a severe one. My mother has also been thinking about this, and she's glad she vaccinated me.

[JenB]

I'm just so tired of all the new things we're supposed to fear; airplanes, bombs, anthrax, smallpox, nuclear suitcases.... if you stay home it'll come in your mail, go to the mall on Halloween and you die... We need to collectively grow some backbone, so defiance to the terrorist b*st*rds who've done this.

What did C.S. Lewis say about men without chests?