Posted on 10/27/2001 10:21:30 AM PDT by ignatz_q
Pretty optimistic assumptions in your post- I think TOO optimistic. Read a journal called "EMERGING INFECTIOUS DISEASES" (available on the web- type that into GOOGLE).
My optimism derives from the fact that I cannot see any head of State authorizing such an attack, and I don't think freelancing terrorist groups can pull this off.
If they did use this as a weapon, and spread it widely right at the start, I would be surprised to escape with less than 25-30% fatalities.
Depending on age and physical condition, we might see more than 30% dead. The Liverpool study at the start of this thread had 75% of unvaccinated becoming seriously ill, with 2/3 of those who became ill dying. A 50% mortality rate
Realisticly speaking, if we get a serious epidemic, the ones who will get the vacines first will be doctors, nurses and other medical personnel, police and other emergency personnel. Namely the people who cannot function without coming into contact with sick people.
(The families of the rich and connected will also get vacinated first, but that's another issue)
You sure about that?
I've read that smallpox is contagious during incubation, prior to the manifestation of symptoms. There were also several smallpox threads on the subject last week, with comments from doctors, and none suggested that the virus wasn't contagious prior to the development of pustules.
That is your opinion, but the fact that the disease takes so long to become contagious, and the emergence of many anti viral meds in the past decade, make you scenario highly unlikely.
Another point, there was an outbreak of smallpox in New York City in 1947, in which a man arrived from Mexico sick with the diesase. The diagnosis of smallpox wasn't even made until two other infections had been identified. But despite the headstart, there were only 12 total cases.
We have the ability to keep a dangerous diesase like smallpox under control.
Breastfeeding provides a newborn a lot of antibody protection for several months after birth which is important to protect them until their own immune systems kick in. But the antibodies in the breast milk don't last for more than a few months, you have no protection at all against smallpox unless you were immunized. I don't believe it's really going to take months to get the immunizations, the virus used to make the vaccine can replicate much faster than that, but even if it does, it's not really that hard for people to do their own if they had to.
You are absolutely right! The only defense against smallpox, other than vaccination, is isolation. Think: Quarantine.
But, remember, you have to isolate EVERYONE in your household until the vaccinations are made available. The previously vaccinated members of the family could still bring the virus home on their clothing, etc. and infect your daughter. No work, no visitors, no mail, no new supplies (food, water). Nothing comes in from outside the home. No contact with the outside world whatsoever.
It would only be for a few days at most and the only sure way to keep your daughter safe.
I'm a nurse, with an unvaccinated son, and this is exactly what I intend to do if a smallpox outbreak occurs in my area.
Seems to me that it could take over the world without necessarily affecting us badly. Census figures show that Third World countries have much younger (and therefore unvaccinated) populations than the aging democracies of the West. Half of Pakistan is supposed to be less than 24 years old, for example.
Add this to the squalid, overcrowded living conditions and weak public health authorities of the Third World, and it seems to me that smallpox could spread like wildfire there, while sparing us from significant harm-- if we let it. We would not do this because we are a good and kind people with immense resources.
If there should be even a single case anywhere in the world, we can be sure the CDC would be at the front lines helping to vaccinate and quarantine the outbreak. Count on us to do our best to bring peace and health and prosperity to the world.
We have made some mistakes along the way, but let us dwell instead on the good things that Western civilization and in particular the US have given the world, and be of good cheer. Vaccinations, food aid, the Green Revolution, the GPS system, the US Navy guarding free passage on the high seas, the Internet, intercontinental air transport, and the list goes on. What have the savage dark parts of the world contributed to human happiness? Practically nothing since someone invented Arabic (really Indian or Chinese) numerals a millenium ago.
No wonder they hate us so much. They are so inferior to us in every way. At the root of Islamic rage is nothing more than a festering envy and abject sense of impotence.
-ccm
Technically, I've had 3 smallpox vaccinations in my life (and I'm in my late 40's). The first one didn't "take", or cause the lesion that shows the vaccine has worked, so I had to be redone. I got a nice, visible scar from the 2nd one. I had a booster in the 7th (I think) grade, that also reacted, leaving its own smaller scar. That scar is no longer visible.
I would hope the government gets on the stick and vaccinates the younger people in this country, so we seriously reduce the attraction of using smallpox as a terrorist weapon.
I'm positive.
From this article in JAMA, which, BTW, took all of 30 seconds to find using Google:
Historically, the rapidity of smallpox transmission throughout the population was generally slower than for such diseases as measles or chickenpox. Patients spread smallpox primarily to household members and friends; large outbreaks in schools, for example, were uncommon. This finding was accounted for in part by the fact that transmission of smallpox virus did not occur until onset of rash. By then, many patients had been confined to bed because of the high fever and malaise of the prodromal illness. Secondary cases were thus usually restricted to those who came into contact with patients, usually in the household or hospital.
There is a lot of scare mongering going on around here lately. Anything you read (including this) should be taken with a grain of salt. Although information like this is very easy to confirm.
I can remember having a very bad reaction from it too.
lady in GA
Well, yes, that IS my opinion, but if you read my original post in reply to your somewhat optimistic scenario, you would note tha my basic opinion is that this will not happen- because this weapon will not be used.
I submit that you have no better idea of what the total casualties would be than I do, and further, that no-one can possibly know this unless and until the attack happens. There are an awful lot of variables not even mentioned on this thread, many of which are unknowable.
If it makes you feel better to believe that smallpox, the ancient scourge of mankind, really isn't all THAT dangerous, then do so.
This CDC flak seems to be saying that his agency's policy is to just make stuff up to advance their agenda. The Carl Sagan approach to science.
No- if this is ever used, it's pretty much certain that some countries are going to disappear rather suddenly. I don't think that rationality and SLATE articles will have much of a chance.
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