Osama bin Laden is Already Dead (In Depth Opinion Piece)

various sources | 11-28-01 | HighWheeler

[HighWheeler]

Osama bin Laden is Already Dead

By Highwheeler at freerepublic.com

In the weeks since the terrorist airliner hijackings and the subsequent attacks on the WTC and Pentagon, both U.S. military and U.S. political strategies have been slowly revealed. Not every piece of information was overt and obvious to the casual observer about these operations. While certain pieces of information were outwardly and proudly proclaimed, most were the carefully and heavily edited bits of information that still remain the most interesting. I am talking about the sporadic information that was missing, retracted, or just puzzling in its nature. This thesis is a compilation of the real data, real press released information, and extrapolations created about that missing, retracted and puzzling data. These data are then used to build conclusions on the events in the war against Afghanistan leading to the conclusion that Osama bin Laden is already dead.

As you read this keep these ideas in mind: 1) These are actual public-domain facts tempered with my opinion based on logic, history, technology, and human nature. 2) Please don’t jump to your conclusions until you have read the whole column, it is a fairly complex analysis and summary of events, and 3) some of the pieces of information are obvious but still necessary in order to completely draw the conclusions.

 

Objectives of the U.S. War on Terrorism:

1. The U.S. does not want to bring Osama to the U.S. for any kind of trial, it would make the OJ trial look like a neighborhood bake sale.
2. We do not want to create a martyr out of Osama.
3. We want to destroy Osama’s influence by killing him.
4. We want to disassemble the entire terrorist network, both physically and financially.
5. Destroying the entire terrorist network will take years to finish, and should be done by first removing the head.

 

Strategies required to reach U.S. Objectives:

1. Immediately freeze and acquire all possible terrorist related asset accounts in the world, removing the financial fuel of terrorism as much as possible, and to severely restrict the free flow of any remaining capital or assets.
2. Identify, round-up, and investigate all known terrorist suspects in the U.S.
3. Use heavy bombing in the first few hours on targets that are of special interest or high value to the terrorists to maximize the destruction, and to minimize the effect of their defensive response.
4. Begin physical elimination of terrorists and terrorist locations once the most critical targets have been identified.
5. We must kill the leader, Osama bin Laden, as soon as possible.
6. We must leave no witnesses, no time, no date, no place, nor a body with which to associate the demise of bin Laden. If we did:

1. It would create a rallying point for the terrorists, and
2. Notify the terrorist organizations that a new leader is required immediately to fill the newly vacant position.
3. May trigger pre-planned acts of terrorism as a direct response to the demise of bin Laden.

 

Assumptions:

1. Over the past 8 years (while Clinton was fostering and/or ignoring terrorism, or making the U.S. look weak in the eyes of terrorists) the FBI and CIA had been keeping fairly close tabs on known terrorists both here in the U.S. and abroad. (substantiation below)
2. We have satellites and other above-ground-level vehicles that can actually read the brand on a pack of cigarettes laying on the ground, and can also clearly view minor temperature variation such as body heat in the IR spectrum and use night vision technology. There was a full moon on October 2, 2001, 5 days before the initial attacks in Afghanistan, which would have made night vision extremely useful. (Readily Available Technology Theorem)
3. That the CIA has been in constant contact with planted terrorist operatives in Afghanistan before and during the bombing of Afghanistan. (James Bond Theorem)
4. Osama has become the hero of the taliban, and as such, the terrorists look at him with reverence and admiration, and want to be at least near him, even if they can't sleep in the same cave. (Bask In The Hero’s Reflected Glow Theorem)
5. An intelligent person would not create a huge risk by demanding something that they were not prepared to accept or really didn’t want. (Be Careful What You Ask For Theorem)
6. That there is actually no honor among thieves. (Jimmy Hoffa Theorem)

 

Additional facts:

1. Over 140 known US terrorists were taken into custody within 4 days of 9-11. Since then there are now 604 "detainees" in U.S. hands. This means that the FBI/CIA has been keeping track of terrorists.
2. Over 300 worldwide financial asset accounts were frozen well within 2 weeks of 9-11. This also means we have been keeping track of terrorists to some degree.
3. We spent almost a month in "strategery" before the first attack on Afghanistan. 26 or 27 Days depending on how you count, to be exact.
4. Saturation bombing of the terrorists and their facilities started on Oct 7.
5. On or about Thursday, Oct 11, 2001, less than 7 full days after bombing started, George Bush-43 stated during a press conference in no uncertain terms that he would "halt air strikes" if they handed over Osama bin Laden. The Taliban response was "Our jihad (holy struggle) . . . will continue until the last breath for the defense of our homeland and Islam" Which really didn’t address Bush’s offer to "halt air strikes" if they would turn over bin Laden. http://www.cnn.com/2001/WORLD/asiapcf/central/10/13/ret.taliban.rejection/index.html
6. On October 25, 2001, USA Today reported that Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld had said that we might never catch Osama bin Laden. http://www.ashbrook.org/publicat/oped/tucker/01/binladen.html When asked about this later in the day at a press briefing, the Secretary backtracked. Under pressure from reporters, he said "I think we're going to get him."

Conclusions:

 

• The strategy Rumsfeld was initially employing was designed to create the illusion to the terrorists that Osama is still alive, that our intent is not necessarily to kill him, and to create a sound reason for the US to continue the campaign against terrorism.

• The only options for dealing with bin Laden that still meet all 5 Objectives and Strategy #6 above are to:

1. kidnap Osama undercover, take him out to sea, tie a big brick to him and kick him overboard. This is too risky since there would likely be many witnesses.
2. Kill him on the spot or after his capture when found. This leaves even more witnesses, a body, possible videotape.
3. Kill him and coincidentally bury him in a cave along with all nearby witnesses.

• The Talibanis would give up Osama if they could actually find him. Turning him over to the U.S. would produce four desirable outcomes from the Taliban’s point of view":

1. It would force Bush to keep his word to "halt air-strikes" in Afghanistan (or severely jeopardize or cripple his authority by reneging on his offer), and
2. It saves the remaining terrorist network, and
3. It would royally screw up the U.S.’s politically correct judicial system for years and years, and
4. They would be eligible to receive the $1B or $25M bounty (depending on which offer you believe) currently on bin Laden’s head. They can always use the money to continue terrorist activities and save their own lives and network in the process. Of course, this conclusion assumes that the Talibanis are not complete idiots, a poor assumption for sure, but does not diminish the other conclusions in anyway.

• In his press conference, Bush would have been certifiably out of his mind to publicly state that he would "halt air strikes" in exchange for Osama unless he was knew there was ABSOLUTELY NO WAY bin Laden could be handed over. This proposed deal, if enacted by the Talibanis by actually handing over bin Laden, would have violated all 5 U.S. Objectives of the War on Terrorism, plus violated the last 3 Strategies of the War.

• Using a ground offensive instead of the airstrikes to capture Osama is dangerous, obvious and slow, therefore it creates a low probability of successful capture of Osama. Disposal of the evidence is still a big problem with a ground offensive. This would also create at least some American witnesses to his demise, and violates Strategy #5. The information would leak out eventually.

 

[HighWheeler]

Osama was probably killed in the saturation bombing in the initial strikes. The statement Bush made on October 11 was very puzzling, considering that he is man of his word, and that only a month earlier he said the elimination of terrorists and their network would take years to complete. Yet he laid it all on the line with his offer.

I have an idea how this was all militarily executed in the first strike, and why it took almost a month to commence, and I may post it after a while.

[Steven W.]

I thought this was the desire some weeks back, too (to nail him and we'd just never find out, which is still possible) - however, my opinion changed in the last week or so. 1st because of the impressive fashion that we've waged this war it's now far better for us to nail 'em than not (whereas that was a different case than before, as you outline). At this point we should get 'em and that'll help weak-kneed coalition members gain some strength. Lastly, as far as him being dead at this point, I don't agree, because of the large number of witnesses around Jolalabad that had seen him in the prior week's time.

[Cicero]

It's a reasonable argument, and you may be correct. I think some of the points are weak, however. I agree that Bush was confident that the Taliban would not hand over Bin Laden, but that could have been based on what was clear to everyone at the time--that the Taliban were not about to give up on that point. It wouldn't have been in character with what we had already seen of them. They had plenty of chances earlier, and they refused to do it.

Moreover, although some of the tribal leaders have been willing to switch allegiance at the drop of a hat, that isn't true of the real fanatics. They are still showing that they are willing to die for the cause.

I am more inclined to agree with your general evaluation. We have been assuming that Bush would want to produce Bin Laden's body, but as you say there may be advantages in having him simply disappear. If he is already dead, there are also advantages in not saying so until after the whole country has been mopped up. He is a useful bogie to placate weenie-whiny liberal newspersons with. In fact, although he did nothing about the problem, it was clinton who first made bin Laden infamous, demonizing him in the clintonoid media, as had earlier been done with Saddam. So Bush already had a liberal-certified liberal demon to deal with, and that made it awkward for the press to complain.

[HighWheeler]

I think the "witnesses" who have seen him may be a ruse. If he is deep in the mountains as thought, word of his whereabouts would be slow to make it to the rest of the world.

He is an obvious person, and if there were actually sitings of him, he would also be seen by U.S. operatives and seen by other technological means.

I think the first 26 days were spent narrowing down his previously vaguely known position. I think the saturation bombing in the first days took him out.

[white_wolf]

I was struck by the Bush Press Conference in October (the one where the Presidential podium was at the head of the long hallway in the White House) in which he seemed supremely happy and confident. I remarked to my wife at the time that he looked and sounded like a man who had just won a big victory. I wondered at the time if we hadn't gotten bin Laden then.

However, mitigating against this is the lack of rumours about it. If we had gotten him, somebody within the terrorist ranks or the Taliban either knows or suspects it. They would have no incentive to keep quiet it about it.

So, you may be right, there is evidence for and against your theorem.

[HighWheeler]

Here you go.

[eno_]

I believe I was the first on FR to call him "Elvis bin Laden." He will be seen in Somalia, which will then have the crap bombed out of it. Then the Philippines. And so on.

[HighWheeler]

Please review, thanks.

[RightWhale]

You got it! He'll be spotted slithering over rocks in downtown Baghdad about Jan 19, 02. Ka-bloom!!

[walden]

What do you think?

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

I agree with most of your evaluation, however the one problem you have is the interview with the Pakistani journalist on Nov 7 or thereabouts, with photo evidence. Could that have been a lie? Probably, but not likely.

[white rose]

I don't agree, because of the large number of witnesses around Jolalabad that had seen him in the prior week's time.

But remember that it's been reported that bin Laden has at least 10 "doubles." These sightings could have been of any one of those guys, done to throw everyone off the trail.

I've been thinking along the lines of HighWheeler's argument for some time now. The fact that it's also been reported that we want DNA samples from bin Laden's female relations, to enable us to positively identify any remains we might find, also leads me to suspect this theory is correct. It tends to imply that we already have these remains, and want to make sure we didn't just blast one of his ringers to hell.

[my_pointy_head_is_sharp]

I've been dying to ask this. Did anyone see Bush's speech in the Rose Garden the other day? The one where the two rescued international relief workers spoke?

I thought Bush seemed cranky that day. He seemed all hopped up on anger, or impatience, or something. He was snapping at people, and could barely contain himself. Did anyone else notice that?

The bigger question is, what's up? What would put him in such a cranky mood?

[tonyinv]

How do you explain the interview he gave, and the Al'Jazeer videos. Although the first one was probably filmed before the bombing started wasn't there a couple more taped after the airwar started?

[Henchman]

Dead! I keep thinking of those thousands of Afghans crawling over those hills looking for Osama because of the $25 Million offer. Can't help LMAO at the thought! Let's raise the reward to a round $BILLION! The whole country will look like an aunt hill.

[Joshua]

"However, mitigating against this is the lack of rumours about it. If we had gotten him, somebody within the terrorist ranks or the Taliban either knows or suspects it. They would have no incentive to keep quiet it about it. "

Exactly.. The terrorists would love to portrait him as their martyr. It would give them something to rally around. This is a very well written piece of Bravo Sierra

[suni]

FYI

[HighWheeler]

I don't think that photo had a dated object in it such as a newpaper with a headline showing evidence of the actual photo date. If I were a photojournalist who wanted to become famous for a day, I would pull out an unpublished file photo of him and claim it was taken yesterday.

Photos are easily doctored anyway. I would like to see a video of him describing details of very recent events as proof of his existence.

[HighWheeler]

You have to carefully evaluate these "pieces of evidence". Look for him to talk in undeniable detail about a recent event, or hold up a London Times from yesterday. I don't think we will ever see this.

[Tallguy]

There is a weakness in your argument relative to the "OJ Trial" theorem: Do you think that the Al-Queda operatives really understand the nuances of the American legal system and the culture from which it sprang? I don't. Therefore, I don't agree with your fear that Osama might suddenly be turned over to us in order to create the mother-of-all-circus-trials..

Another case in point concerning the cultural disconnect: Why should the Taliban make deliberate targets of Western journalists? It makes no sense in light of the Vietnam experience. The only hope for the survival of the Taliban regime is to make it politically impossible for the US to prosecute the offensive. The just made it a heckuva lot easier on Bush by offing those journalists. It's gonna make it a lot harder for Geraldo to second-guess Bush strategy. Western journalists are a potential ally to be wooed, not dragged from a pickup truck and shot like some rabid dog.

[mlocher]

thanks for collating your thoughts and putting this together.

i vaguely recall rumsfeld early on discussing a war of disinformation. i believed his intention was to tip off the press that this would be a two way street. given this, bush's comments and actions would not be inconsistent with the war tactics. (in fact, i happen to believe that some of the united states/israel banter that went on while the coalition was being put together was planned to mute or at least mitigate arab nation concerns.)

i happen to believe, however, that much of the arab world believed that the taliban and al-qaeda were separate, a fact that is turning out to be false. bush was trying, i think, to show that the two worked hand in hand -- hence the edict to the taliban to turn over usama -- and bush knew they would not.

even if the taliban had turned over usama, bush would have put pressure on the taliban to chase down the rest of his network. without taliban resistance, bombing is not necessary.

the american public will demand some specific evidence that we are succeeding in this war. usama would be a major milestone -- although as you have alluded, there is a risk that the war ends with him. i believe that we would have heard if he were killed. al-jazeera, if nobody else, would have found out and publicized it for the response it would have received.

good thoughts and nice compilation of a lot of data. even though i am skeptical of the conclusions drawn, i highly respect the work you did!

[HighWheeler]

There were some business CEOs who were offering $1B for Osama early on. You can still google to get the article on this offer.

[HighWheeler]

"However, mitigating against this is the lack of rumours about it. If we had gotten him, somebody within the terrorist ranks or the Taliban either knows or suspects it. They would have no incentive to keep quiet it about it.

For weeks now, the U.S. has spoken in terms of Osama being alive, yet have stated some unusual things to create enough doubt. If they took out bin Laden early, and still stuck to the Startegies, they would have to take out all witnesses within a huge perimeter to ensure no positive witnesses.

The one who are alive are quiet about it because they don't know for sure, and yet they still want to believe.

[SusanUSA]

Thanks, HighWheeler. A bump to read it thoroughly in a bit. Gotta run for now.

N&V:Sounds close to your theory, too, doesn't it?

Saber, over here, over here! Now you can find out and I WON'T have to kill you!

[HighWheeler]

You have almost swerved into your own answer.

We have been told that Osama understands the U.S. and a lot of the culture. He was a civil engineer, and lived in the relatively upscale Saudi Arabia. His engineering degree purportedly led him to target the WTC. IF he were alive today, he would be the first to realize the potential destruction he could cause (aided and abetted by the liberals and peaceniks in the U.S.) here by surrendering. He would also be creating nightly news for years as the trial dragged on, and acting as the greatest terrorist draft incentive since the Uncle Sam posters of WWII.

Before Bush made his "halt air campaign" speech, I was wondering when Osama would surrender himself. It took about 8 years to convict the two weasels who actually planted the first bombs in the WTC. Imagine what would happen if we had Osama.

[HighWheeler]

Thanks for your thoughtful words.

[snippy_about_it]

Let us just say he was killed today, November 28th so I can win the BIN LADEN (DEAD) POOL.

[moodyskeptic]

I'm readin you loud and clear. For weeks, when friends would say it's important to catch binLaden quickly, I'd stop 'em and ask why? You got it right, there's no good reason to show up with binLaden's head before we destroy his terrorist network.

If the truth is being supressed, as you and I suspect it is, I'm HAPPY to see it! If we are playing poker with world opinion, we are doing it expertly. Finally a White House that does disinfo right!

[HighWheeler]

AND - as a bonus, the moment it suits our needs Bush can come out and say that Osama is dead. Of course the presstitutes will want all the details.....

[HighWheeler]

Where is this pool?

[Howlin]

Very interesting. Makes as much sense as anything I've read.

I totally agree with your first #6.

[HighWheeler]

Thanks Howlin, I spent a bit of time researching and writing, I'm glad you appreciate it. I think this war has gone very well, and we hold every card left to play. I think we still have a long way to go however.

[SCHROLL]

I don't think he's assumed cave temperature just yet. I do think that we've known where he's at all along though. Given the weak kneed support that we have gotten from some of our so called allies, we have had no choice but to keep him and Omar alive for now.

Follow along with this bit of twisted logic, the only way that we keep the Taliban and Al Queda forces fighting is for them to be alive. The local Afghanis will turn at the drop of a hat, however Osama's boys will not. Using sat intell and on the ground intell we have followed them around the country. We have observed their troop deployments and using a newly armed N.A. went after them. We used our air power to turn the locals as we did in Desert Storm ie they see us and can't surrender fast enough. We deplete their forces with a minimum of ground action taking place. We've been herding them into a central location making it easier for us to take out the guys that we're really after and pretty much insulating the populace from total warfare (see winning hearts and minds).

After only a couple of weeks we have the terrorists and their handlers in two places, Kunduz and Khandahar. Now we don't have to go into every nook and cranny looking for them. Meanwhile, the peaceniks, the bleeding hearts, and the Arabs can't go off the deep end screaming stop and build any momentum against the war.

You've now managed to put your opposition in a box, and can prosecute the war on your terms with little or no loss of political capital. When the time is right, you strike the fatal blow (we went after Omar yesterday, Osama can't be too far off). Take out the remaining terrorist forces, the remaining Taliban, and finally Osama. Game, set, and match in Afghanistan. Time to aquire the next target.

[McGavin999]

I think you're right. Remember when that journalist did the last interview with him and said that he acted very different? Maybe he interviewed one of the doubles.

[SCHROLL]

Saying that you are willing to die for your cause and realizing that you're actually about to do it tends to make you act a little different.

How would Saturday about 4:30 sound Osama? Just be in your cave and let us worry about the details.

[woofie]

Go home idiot

[SCHROLL]

Took you an entire 8 days to expose yourself as an idiot or did I miss any of your earlier assinine ramblings?

[HighWheeler]

Hey SCHROLL, I just now saw on the news that Omar himself today claimed to be alive.

[MaeWest]

Bin Laden dead pool ping. (Not to be confused with the immortal pool poopie thread)

[SCHROLL]

Yeah, but he better start counting his virgins. He's not going to be around much longer.

[HighWheeler]

Final Anaylsis by Highwheeler (This is the Author’s opinion based on the above real information and author-assumed information):

Osama was killed in the first 5 days of the bombing campaign, probably on the first night while night vision technology would still be of added significant value. The U.S. generally knew where Osama was located prior to 9-11, but honed down his local zone of occupation in the 26 days prior to the bombing. Satellites and Predator spy planes were collecting real-time data on the suspected locations of Osama to narrow down the exact location. The Pentagon analyzed the recon photos to narrow the range, then used the bee-hive theory of probable location and confirmation. You can find the most important bee in a hive by finding the vibrant, dense cluster of worker bees surrounding their leader. Even at night, the IR signatures and night vision of the mobile and settled terrorist wanna-bees would create a radiating pattern, with all individuals’ movement and positions generally pointing to Osama’s location.

By waiting 26 days before bombing, a relatively false sense of security would be created for the terrorists. They would have sufficient time, and more importantly, a level of comfort and confidence in them to find Osama and stay near him. The response by terrorist followers to search and find Osama did in effect reveal bin Laden’s detailed position. Weeks were needed to finally settle on bin Laden’s actual position. Prior to bombing, The CIA confirmed his position with Predator drone aircraft and personnel operatives on the ground.

In the first night-time bombing raids, Osama’s entire surrounding Active Zone was thoroughly destroyed all the way out to a miles-wide buffer zone of absolutely no human activity. Bunker busters and conventional bombs fell continually for hours in the Active Zone, laying a continuous encircling carpet of utter destruction from which nothing larger than bacteria could survive. During the bombing runs, heavy jamming of cell phone frequencies made all cell phones and other forms of radio communication used by the terrorists ineffective.

Although nighttime can reveal the positions of explosions, the flash of light lasts only a moment compared with the resulting smoke, which can be seen for 10s of miles and for hours afterwards. By morning, all dense smoke evidence of the night’s bombings were not visible for miles beyond the Active Zone and the encircling Perimeter Zone.

Afterwards, for days later, everything that was detected to be moving or radiating energy inside the Active Zone was surgically struck with Apaches. Satellites and drones transmitted IR photos to assure that any body heat signatures were cold within the Active Zone. To create the illusion that the Active Zone was not necessarily Osama’s location, strikes were conducted all over parts of Afghanistan as a diversion.

Early on October 11, Bush was notified that the energy gradient in the Active Zone was flat, meaning that no bodies were alive, and no forms of electronic radiation were detected. The carefully constructed press conference speech was drafted and delivered stating that the US would "halt air strikes" if the Taliban would hand over bin Laden.

These concentrated air strikes met all 5 objectives and the last 4 Strategies shown above, and intentionally leave bin Laden’s death forever in question. The Active Zone is still maintained under surveillance, and any activity heading toward the Active Zone is stopped. For security and deterrence, several other zones are maintained to mimic the Active Zone.

[SCHROLL]

Since Afghanistan is landlocked are you purposing we fly the oil out? It's about not having a repeat of 911.

[Michael_Michaelangelo]

Maaaaaaaan you have echoed my thoughts to a tee! I have been telling people that Osama is already gone since a week after the initial attack. Why say you got him? That would be a silly move on our part. Furthermore, if he were still alive, we would have seen more terrorist attacks of some sort, somewhere. As it were, there was no-one to execute the order, as both Laden and Omar were vaporized along with hundreds of the most militant Talibunnies. Don't fu** with the U.S. Buy some stock. Volunteer some time. Peace. MM

[SusanUSA]

((applause)) See? I told ya. :-)

BTW, if Sabertooth ever gets his sorry ______ over here and posts his Osama Pool, you'll see how much I agree with your theory.(But NOW I'm thinkin' I was off a couple of days?)

[Billie]

You've done a lot of research and put a lot of work into this, Wheeler, and kudos are in order. I want to KNOW he's dead, though, and I don't care one whit how it happened or who did it. I just want to see his stinkin' corpse.

[Tallguy]

Don't get me wrong, I like your analysis. You may well be correct in your conclusion that Osama is already dead. If he is then the whole world has been treated to a graphic demonstration of what the US Military means when it refers to "full spectrum dominance."

I still have that problem with the "OJ Trial" analogy. The Al-Queda organization, we are told, is like an organized crime syndicate. While strategic directives come from the top (OBL), the operational details are left to his capos. OBL is very likely familiar with the American legal system, but it is doubtful that his key subordinates are. And they, after all, are the ones who would be giving him up.

[HighWheeler]

I still have that problem with the "OJ Trial" analogy.

I did not make the OJ trial analogy a consideration of OBL, it is not stated that way, it is a U.S. consideration for bringing him to the U.S. for trial, to understate that we did not want him in the country.

The Al-Queda organization, we are told, is like an organized crime syndicate. While strategic directives come from the top (OBL), the operational details are left to his capos. OBL is very likely familiar with the American legal system, but it is doubtful that his key subordinates are. And they, after all, are the ones who would be giving him up.

If OBL were alive he would be flaunting his presence to this day, just as he was doing immediately after 9-11 (In fact, I suspect the videotape helped expose his actual location). The Taliban responded to Bush within two days with a FU statement. They were still in the USSR defeat mindset, and possibly didn't understand they were facing their own demise. If they were smart, they would have said "Sure! we'll have him to you on Tuesday!" As you can see, Bush was taking a major risk.

Either way, the actual and potential responses of OBL (none) and the Taliban (FU) doesn't undermine any other parts of the argument. The supporting evidence and the potential repercussions of the evidence all point to OBL's death.