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Analysts: Bin Laden has Escaped Afghanistan
Albania Briefings | November 29, 2001 | G. Dority

Posted on 11/29/2001 5:35:19 PM PST by Fusion

Osama bin Laden has escaped the encroaching American dragnet in Eastern Afghanistan and is headed west, possibly helped by Iraq -- with an ultimate destination believed to be Africa or the Balkans according to US diplomatic officials. Bin Laden and a group of some twenty lieutenants and bodyguards departed his Afghan lair early this week, crossing into Pakistan via caravan along ancient mountain tracks at high altitudes. "We missed him," says Mike Scanlan of the US Embassy in Banja Luka.

While the western media trumpets the impending elimination of Osama bin Laden and the apparent collapse of Taliban forces, Washington officials concede their quarry has escaped the noose. Privately they suggest Iraq may have been involved at some level with logistical support in assisting the al Qaeda leader's run. "Think about it," says US Congressman J.D. Hayworth (R-AZ), "Baghdad knows we are coming after them next, once business is finished in Afghanistan. By keeping bin Laden from our grasp, they hope to delay our next strategic move."

Could the US begin the attack on Iraq before bin Laden is captured or killed? "No way," replies Hayworth. "The president has set out clear objectives that must be accomplished for each phase to transition to the next. We want a clear cut victory in Afghanistan before moving against Saddam. If bin Laden has indeed escaped Afghanistan then some adjustments will be taking place soon."

With bin Laden on the move west, it is suspected he may transit the Caucuses region -- an area that could provide safe haven during the winter, before reaching Bosnia or Albania in the spring. Chechen fighters battling the Russian Federation enjoy strong support in Azerbaijan, where a shaky Baku government has made it difficult for the US to operate effectively. In addition, the murder of a midlevel American intelligence operative there last year sent a clear signal that Azerbaijan remains beyond western geopolitical hegemonism sufficient to manipulate events on the ground.

Should Osama bin Laden reach Albania then he is gone. Despite American intelligence successes there during the last half decade, US assets on the ground continue to operate in an informational black hole. "Tirana has close to a million people supported by very little municipal organization or cohesion," one veteran Albania watcher advises, "nobody knows what is happening here now. Should the government be overthrown next year then the seeds of the coup will be planted in the coming months -- fertile ground for bin Laden, with both sides more than willing to offer him sanctuary in exchange for cash."

Whether Osama bin Laden reaches the Balkans or Africa by the spring to reconstitute his shattered organization remains to be seen. What is clear is that he has managed to escape Afghanistan before the heavy winter snows made such a journey impractical. What then will be the Washington response to this event? Will the Pentagon and White House planners attempt to claim bin Laden's death after massive bombardment of his Afghan mountain hideout?

"Unlikely," says Scanlan. "We've got world opinion and credibility on our side now. To claim victory and then have him pop up somewhere else would be a disaster. However if he tries to come through the Balkans we'll take him down."


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: binladen; michaeldobbs
For the past 48 hours there has been a consensus among senior US officials that bin Laden has gotten away. However, while on the run he is vulnerable -- it should be an interesting chase.

Mike Scanlan needs to focus on the new RS government that will be formed soon as PM Ivanic is none too pleased with recent shenanigans slowing the privatisation process. Everybody knows Dodik wants back in the game in the RS -- apparently it will be up to the State Department to finesse the downfall of the SDS -- with or without him.

1 posted on 11/29/2001 5:35:19 PM PST by Fusion
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To: Fusion
Where in the world is Osama bin Laden? They could make a TV series with that.

Note what the article says about Iraq attempting to delay the "next strategic move" of the U.S....will the neo-cons have their way and get the U.S. to invade Iraq to oust Saddam (doing Israel's dirty work yet again)?

Stay tuned, same bat time, same bat channel.

2 posted on 11/29/2001 5:39:12 PM PST by wildconservatism
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To: Fusion
Right!

Him, his fourteen wifes, his 50 kids and couple of goats. No one even noticed when they crossed the border.

3 posted on 11/29/2001 5:41:57 PM PST by jerod
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To: Fusion
Elvis has left the building. He's probably headed wherever we've decided to bomb next.
4 posted on 11/29/2001 5:43:58 PM PST by Cicero
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To: Fusion
If true, this would be very good news......let the hunt begin.
5 posted on 11/29/2001 5:44:54 PM PST by porte des morts
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To: Fusion
I'm prepared to bet we never find him (at least not any time soon), either because he does not exist as portrayed or he is much too convenient to have around as an enemy.
6 posted on 11/29/2001 5:47:34 PM PST by droberts
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To: wildconservatism
If there IS a real Mr. Scanlan of the US Embassy, he's about to be fired for talking out of turn.
7 posted on 11/29/2001 5:49:42 PM PST by cookcounty
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To: cookcounty
True regarding the potential firing of Scanlan...I've heard W. is quite picky about leaks.
8 posted on 11/29/2001 5:51:40 PM PST by wildconservatism
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To: Fusion
It is the end of Nov. the heavy snow at high altitudes is already there. He left before last week. If his caravan is still traveling in the mountians they should not be hard to find. I think he took a plane or was gone by 9-11.
9 posted on 11/29/2001 5:53:24 PM PST by Ditter
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To: Fusion
How does he keep leaving when he's left so many times before? Does he keep coming back, then slipping out again? It's downright confusing. How does he do it?!
10 posted on 11/29/2001 5:54:11 PM PST by Cleburne
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To: Fusion
He got away a long time ago.
11 posted on 11/29/2001 5:54:31 PM PST by RLK
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To: Fusion
OBL is probably dead.

If not and if he were smart, there's only one place he can go . . .

Baghdad

12 posted on 11/29/2001 5:54:34 PM PST by holman
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To: droberts
either because he does not exist as portrayed or he is much too convenient to have around as an enemy.

Emmanuel bin Goldstein?
13 posted on 11/29/2001 5:55:37 PM PST by NatureGirl
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To: holman
If not and if he were smart, there's only one place he can go . . .

Baghdad

Oh I hope so. Kaboom! Buh Bye!

14 posted on 11/29/2001 6:01:43 PM PST by kstewskis
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To: Fusion
Pure speculation. I can just hear Donald Rumsfeld, "Since didn't know where was yesterday, we don't know if he is still there."

With all due respect to J.D. Hayworth we absolutely do not need to catch Bin Laden before getting Saddam. Bush could come on TV any night and announce that we are must stop Saddam from getting WOMD and bombing began 15 minutes ago, and the American people would cheer. And Bush knows that even if J.D. doesn't.

15 posted on 11/29/2001 6:10:16 PM PST by Hugin
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To: Fusion
This source stinks to high heaven. On the entire internet, the ONLY reference to an "Albania Briefing" with a "Dority" authoring is on Free Republic.
16 posted on 11/29/2001 6:13:14 PM PST by John H K
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To: John H K
"This source stinks to high heaven. "

Yes, it do. I'm holding out for better, myself.

17 posted on 11/29/2001 6:25:49 PM PST by gcruse
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To: Fusion
Looks like a phony report from beginning to end. Where is the source URL?
18 posted on 11/29/2001 6:32:01 PM PST by beckett
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To: wildconservatism; cookcounty; beckett
Think of Fusion as a Macedonian Slav who's trying to smear his ethnic enemies though use of fictional characters and events.

It'll make more sense that way.

19 posted on 11/29/2001 6:50:35 PM PST by Hoplite
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To: Fusion
Sorry bud.

The curtain is coming down - I don't suppose you've ever heard the tale of "Deep in the Hurtgen Forest" on FR, have you?

20 posted on 11/29/2001 6:52:04 PM PST by Hoplite
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To: Fusion
I suspect our intelligence community knows a lot more about Osama's location than they're telling anyone. Including Osama. No point in tipping him off; he'll meet the Reaper soon enough.
21 posted on 11/29/2001 6:53:37 PM PST by IronJack
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To: Ditter
,,, betcha he's in China.
22 posted on 11/29/2001 6:56:58 PM PST by shaggy eel
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To: John H K
He makes Debka and Milosevic2 appear to be Gospel Truth.
23 posted on 11/29/2001 6:58:32 PM PST by Senator Pardek
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To: Fusion
Hey bud, how goes it with the Chechens? Did your guys know they were surrendering when they marched to that prison? They sure got whacked when they changed their minds, didn't they.
24 posted on 11/29/2001 7:12:41 PM PST by SBprone
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Comment #25 Removed by Moderator

To: Hoplite
I don't suppose you've ever heard the tale of "Deep in the Hurtgen Forest" on FR, have you?

I remember reading a few posts by this guy a couple of years ago. What happened to him?

-ccm

26 posted on 11/29/2001 7:21:59 PM PST by ccmay
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To: wildconservatism
Assuming even that there is such a guy- there probably is- the quote from this source probably came from inside some Albanian head, not from the person the article names. It's not hard to look up an embassy site and dig up names- and then just make up quotes to go with them. A call to the embassy official would be the only way to check.
27 posted on 11/29/2001 7:23:06 PM PST by piasa
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To: Senator Pardek
Mike Scanlan works at the US embassy in Vladivostok. Maybe he commutes, LOL.
28 posted on 11/29/2001 7:28:00 PM PST by piasa
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To: Ditter
think he took a plane or was gone by 9-11. 9 posted on 11/29/01 6:53 PM Pacific by Ditter

Maybe he was in that same helicopter that was a 30-knot boat, fleeing ,helter skelter away from underneath a falling,shot down TWA-800. Ole Fibber McGee KALLSTROM morphed that boat into a helicopter.

29 posted on 11/29/2001 7:34:05 PM PST by timestax
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To: Hoplite
LOL!!! Those threads were fun.
30 posted on 11/29/2001 7:34:25 PM PST by Ronin
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To: Fusion
He left in a "caravan" of at least 21 people...and we missed him. Uh, yep, we can read a license plate from space and zero in on one square foot. That's what they tell us.
31 posted on 11/29/2001 7:39:01 PM PST by poopsie2
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To: John H K; Hoplite
This source stinks to high heaven. On the entire internet, the ONLY reference to an "Albania Briefing" with a "Dority" authoring is on Free Republic.

You can also find "G. Dority's" "G Spot" column on Beaufort County NOW

SO WHAT! "G. Dority" still is the same person as "Fusion"! No, Hoplite, he's not a Slavic Macedonian or a Serb. He's a Serb-hating Shiptar sympathizer and cloak-and-dagger wannnabe!!

32 posted on 11/29/2001 7:47:25 PM PST by Honorary Serb
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To: ccmay
He admitted his fraud and passed into Freeper lore - now referenced as DITHF.
33 posted on 11/29/2001 7:52:36 PM PST by Hoplite
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To: Fusion
And all this time I thought there was a bullshit filter installed in FR. I guess this one 'article' kinda' slipped through.....
34 posted on 11/29/2001 7:56:42 PM PST by AmericanInTokyo
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To: Fusion

35 posted on 11/29/2001 8:02:25 PM PST by Nick Danger
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To: All
Serb-hating Shiptar sympathizer

It's just the creepy Balkan thing again.

36 posted on 11/29/2001 8:02:42 PM PST by Stentor
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To: Fusion
read this FR post: Osama bin Laden is Already Dead

Osama plus any decent size entourage would be easily spotted, night or day.

37 posted on 11/29/2001 8:05:44 PM PST by HighWheeler
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To: Nick Danger
Funny, it blew mine to smithereens.
38 posted on 11/29/2001 8:06:38 PM PST by dighton
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To: Nick Danger
LOL!!!
39 posted on 11/29/2001 8:16:03 PM PST by BoldlyGoingNowhere
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To: NatureGirl
Yes, something like that.
40 posted on 11/29/2001 8:43:35 PM PST by droberts
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To: Fusion
source: albania briefings

huh?

41 posted on 11/29/2001 9:21:02 PM PST by mlocher
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To: piasa
Mike Scanlan works at the US embassy in Vladivostok.

There's no American embassy in Vladivostok in the first place. A consulate? Possible. Which doesn't change the fact that (Con)Fusion is a fiction from the beginning to the end...

What's unusual, is that he didn't finished this post by his favourite slogan: "Forces of freedom on marsh. Europe trembles!" - plus some shit about ancient Illirians.

42 posted on 11/29/2001 11:44:12 PM PST by Neophyte
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To: Fusion
The nicest thing Osama could possibly do for us is to go to Iraq. Then we have an airtight excuse to waste Saddam.
43 posted on 11/29/2001 11:46:55 PM PST by xm177e2
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To: Fusion; Nick Danger
No link to the source article?
44 posted on 11/29/2001 11:54:48 PM PST by Cultural Jihad
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To: beckett; Fusion
There never is a linked source URL with Fusion's articles from "Albania Briefings". This same G. Dority is alleged to have written this article previously: "Analysts: Bin Laden to Strike Balkans During Ramadan".
45 posted on 11/30/2001 12:00:07 AM PST by Cultural Jihad
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To: droberts
I'm prepared to bet we never find him (at least not any time soon), either because he does not exist as portrayed or he is much too convenient to have around as an enemy.

Ring my friend, I said you'd call...

Yeah, he's a robot.

46 posted on 11/30/2001 12:05:11 AM PST by tallhappy
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To: Nick Danger
Interestingly, this "G. Dority" apparently likes to write memos to the POTUS, who probably sits at the edge of his chair awaiting each and every analytical memo:


Memo to P.O.T.U.S. Balkan situation at critical stage: Region on the brink of war

Foreign Affairs Editorial
Source: Albania Briefings
Published: 03/08/01 Author: G. Dority
Posted on 03/09/2001 23:52:39 PST by Fusion

George W. Bush

President, United States of America

Washington, DC

Sir:

We have never met, and you may only know me from the files; however I had the pleasure of knowing your father a few times in the old days. He is a fine gentleman and I hope he is well. I regret to inform you that you have a hell of a situation on your hands in the Balkans.

We are very close to having a regional conflict ignite. Should this happen you will find yourself in over your head and unlikely to be elected for a second term.


Source: http://www.peacelink.it/webgate/yugoslavia/msg00650.html
47 posted on 11/30/2001 12:11:07 AM PST by Cultural Jihad
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To: Nick Danger
(Here's the babelfish translation from the Italian in the above linked page):

As it turns out from the reading of the last Londoner " Observer " are in the course of the modification-changes of gravitational points, in Been the Department, relative to the previous tactics of abuse of the etnia Albanian in the Kosovo, and Macedonian, for worsening of the positions of the some Balkan regimes. In more, later on I cite an article from the " Foreign Affairs Magazine ", where an obvious professional of the American foreign political, addresses to the new President, revealing some previous maneuvers, using Dr. Sali Berisha. the interests of Bulgaria, etc. In all, the methodology used in the reasoning, in the objectives, is " interesting ". It follows the text:

48 posted on 11/30/2001 12:15:56 AM PST by Cultural Jihad
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To: Fusion
KB6RKJ ... 19 Nov 2001
49 posted on 11/30/2001 12:19:07 AM PST by Cultural Jihad
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To: *balkans
bump
50 posted on 11/30/2001 10:36:06 AM PST by nikola
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