Posted on 12/03/2001 10:11:56 AM PST by Starmaker
A few days before the anthrax attacks, I wrote a very controversial piece about the next terror attacks. In “It´s Time To Panic: The Kitchen Bioterrorist,” written on 9/20/01, I outlined how easy it would be for a terrorist working alone to create havoc and death. I also predicted that such an attack was likely in the very near future. The anthrax attacks a few days later proved me right in all my predictions except for the disease used. (I said botulism.) Now I have another prediction - far, far worse. And I sincerely hope I´m wrong.
As with the last piece, I have thought long and hard before writing this and airing it to the public. However, as has become obvious, whatever ideas I may have are nothing new to the terrorists. They spend 24/7/365 thinking up new ways to commit atrocities on an unsuspecting public. I am giving them no new information. However, if we are to combat terrorism, we must first be aware of what may be in store for us so as to take appropriate measures to stop it. That old saw, ‘forewarned is forearmed´ comes to mind.
But before I tell you my prediction, let me explain how I arrived at it. I have been observing not merely the methods, but the psychology and ideology behind the recent rash of terrorist attacks. Today´s terrorists are, for the most part, very different from those before the 1960s. For one thing, the majority of them are radical Islamists who want to die for their cause. They commit acts of terror from a warped pseudo-politico/religious belief system.
I call this belief system ‘pseudo´ because it goes against the very teachings of the religion they purport to uphold. Mohammed never said that innocent civilians should be targeted. And renaming innocent civilians as legitimate enemies, as these religious zealots have done, does not abrogate that fact. Then there is the bit about suicide. According to the Koran, suicide is forbidden. But the zealots have renamed it death while fighting the infidels. From a religious standpoint, they have given themselves Allah´s blessing to carry out their murderous acts.
So now we have a bunch of religious maniacs who think that killing themselves while killing and maiming innocent people will get them into heaven and give them 72 virgins to boot. To put it another way, dying for their cause is one of their goals.
The next factor I considered was their methodology and available weaponry. Their methodology involves using themselves as the delivery system of whatever horror they have planned. It also involves something that is common, unnoticeable, and cost-effective.
As to weaponry, our ‘War On Terrorism´ has put a crimp in the weapons available to the terrorists. We have also been hitting them in the pocketbook and confounding their communications. Our vigilance in trying to detect conventional weapons such as bombs and guns has forced them to become creative. Couple that with the recent anthrax attacks and the fact that at least one of the 9-11 terrorists was checking out crop dusters. It is obvious that the terrorists are thinking in terms of bioweapons.
There is also one more factor to consider. Recently, terror groups across the globe have been quietly rounded up. They are no longer free to plan and operate large-scale operations with anonymity and impunity. Whatever attack is coming next will probably be done by an individual or small group without too much preparation involved.
When you add up all the aspects I outlined above, the answer becomes obvious. Or perhaps I should say, the proper question becomes obvious. Here´s the question: What can a single terrorist do to kill or injure as many people as possible, while causing panic and interrupting government, using a biological weapon and his own body as a delivery system?
My first thoughts were as a carrier of some horrific disease. The scenario is laughingly simple and undetectable. Some heaven-bent terrorist infects himself with a devastating disease such as Ebola, Smallpox, or Bubonic Plague. Then he boards a plane for New York City, gets off and walks around coughing on everybody in as many terminals as he can access. Suddenly, you have thousands of infected carriers leaving for points all over the country, spreading the infection as they travel.
In fact, the recent outbreak of Dengue Fever in Hawaii, a place not known for such outbreaks, and geographically isolated, may have been a dry run or a first attempt. Or perhaps the West Nile Virus outbreak in New York City two years ago was a test case. I only know that we must be prepared to identify and stop these people before they can inflict a biological nightmare on the world.
We've talked about it for months. I even heard people saying this on the Don Imus show in October for goodness sake.
Heck, back during the Gulf war Art Bell had some guy on that brought up this scenario. He said it would be very easy to infect someone willingly or not, say a lady and a child, and send them cris-crossing the world on a plane when they are at their most likely to infect others. Multiply those two people by 50 and you could have real problems. The guest brought it up because Saddam was threatening the US and the west in general at the time.
Anyhow, someone with a devious mind and spare time on their hands along with a free pack of matches from the drug store could tie you in knots too if they did it right.
As for plague, it must be remembered that plague is contracted fairly frequently in the United States, and has not produced a major epedemic.
Smallpox is another matter altogether, although there is the distinct possibility that much of the population still has a certain degree of immunity from past vaccinations, and the government is already preparing to vaccinate everyone.
A few infected articles brought into an enclosed environment such as an airliner would be enough to get an epidemic started.
This is a true story, Freepers!
dep
Tell your wife that she's either with us or with the terrorists.
If in doubt, throw it out!
If you become absolutely convinced that your God has asked you to make the ultimate sacrifice (or to ask others to do so) because of how screwed up the world has become, and that by performing this holy duty it will help to set the world right again (by taking out a bunch of "evil-doers"), what else are you going to do?
Seems to me that Bush (and the rest of us Americans) believes the same, except for the suicide part. And here I thought we believed in that romantic "Man of La Mancha" stuff:
... To be willing to die so that honor and justice may live...
Er, no, not really. Pockets of dengue pops up from time time--including on the mainland (she may want to check out how many foreign plants, animals & other critters have migrated to Hawaii--& that'd include mosquitoes). I caught dengue either in Villahermosa or in & around Palenque/Agua Azul in Mexico. Is it a nice disease? No. I wouldn't wish it on my worst enemy (okay, there are a few, but I'm too polite to mention who they are). As usual, the very young, the elderly and those with compromised immune systems are vulnerable. Can someone recover from it? Of course--otherwise I wouldn't be writing this with dengue antibodies in my blood.
Bad analogy.
With what? Their 12 million stockpiled doses? It'll be the rich, powerful, and military that get vaccinated first, then Doc's, police, and firemen. If you don't fall into any of those categories, don't plan on getting a vaccination. With a 30% rate of death associated with Smallpox, you have a pretty decent chance of living, but you'll be scarred for life. It will be at LEAST a year before production of new vaccine can begin, and probably two years until enough is made to get to everyone. One last litte scarry stat, there is an estimated 80% susceptibility in the population. The vaccination loses effectiveness in as little as 10 years.
Lets plug some variables into a nice little epidemiological equation:
Rp(average # of new cases per single case) = S(density of susceptibles in polulation) x B(tranmission rate [~1 for smallpox]) x L(average period of time host remain infectious)
What do we get . . . 16 news cases of smallpox for every single new cases. Of course there would be quarantines, and this rate would obiously slow down, but with a such dense population centers as we have in the US, the spread could be epidemic very quickly, especially since the differetional diagnosis is chicken pox or the flu.
Do NOT make light of a Smallpox attack. We are unprepared.
Not true. I have read some article which stated this, but it is not accurate. Infected but symptonless people can spread it.
It is a lot more infectious later, so that may be the reason for this common misperception.
Well said. Great, actually.
Small Pox is a serious concern in my opinion.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.