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Analysis: 20 factors that will change PCs in 2002
CNN.com Sci-Tech / PC World.com ^ | December 25, 2001 Posted: 9:18 a.m. EST (1418 GMT) | Daniel Tynan

Posted on 12/26/2001 5:52:19 PM PST by anymouse

Edited on 04/29/2004 1:59:51 AM PDT by Jim Robinson. [history]

Hot economies cool down and Net empires collapse, but technology continues to move at light speed. Digital tools are not only getting smaller, faster, and cheaper, they're also insinuating themselves into every corner of life. And these days they're as likely to be found in your pocket as on your desk.


(Excerpt) Read more at cnn.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS:

1 posted on 12/26/2001 5:52:19 PM PST by anymouse
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To: anymouse
Have you ever seen Earth: Final Conflict?

They have a device called a global. Part computer/part phone/part GPS system.

I have faith these will oneday exist.

2 posted on 12/26/2001 6:01:21 PM PST by Bogey78O
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To: Bogey78O
I've got an old IBM 133mz desktop with an Evergreen 600 mz/256mb ram AcceleraPCI card which makes the computer work like new. I have no intention of purchasing a brand new one, at least anytime soon. Especially with XP, i don't care how stable the OS is. I've got 98SE, which along with the older computer will allow me to maintain complete control, especially with my ability to burn cd's and record mp3s. The technology appears to me anyway to be moving in an anti-consumer, pro big business direction that will limit consumer choices.
3 posted on 12/26/2001 6:14:37 PM PST by Reaganwuzthebest
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To: anymouse
I'm looking forward to the introduction of the OLED's. Seems like you should be able to purchase a thin 19 inch monitor for less than $50 by now.
4 posted on 12/26/2001 6:19:10 PM PST by Brett66
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To: Bogey78O
Didn't see that Scientology sponsored piece of crap SciFi.

All-in-one devices are always nice, except do you really want a global tracking device on something that you can't do without?

5 posted on 12/26/2001 6:25:13 PM PST by anymouse
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To: anymouse
802.11 is WAY hotter than some bogues Intel marketspeak like "hyper-threading".

Notice: typical pro-MS piece - not one mention of Linux or Mac OS X.

6 posted on 12/26/2001 6:29:39 PM PST by ikka
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To: Bogey78O
yawn.
7 posted on 12/26/2001 6:29:43 PM PST by johnboy
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To: anymouse
Wake me when PC's have caught up to Apple Computers
8 posted on 12/26/2001 6:37:57 PM PST by Dittohead_2
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To: ikka
five years from now... Microslop will be histoire.

Lotus and word perfect made the apple personal computer the envy of microslop... windows was the result...

The APPLICATIONS were what sold the computer... not the performance specs per se.

The open sourcers will eventually take massive market share away from ms... barring government intervention... or perhaps Willie G will assert HE invented the concept of word processing... and page layout, or accounting with a spreadsheet... et al.

If the freebie unix clones survive the attacks by the Justice Department in their support of the microslop hegemony... there will be no microslop as we know it five years from now.

If the power is ultimately given to the people, will that power corrupt them absolutely??? Look for government to license and register all computers, like cars and guns over the next few years... "WE just have to register these dangerous computer platforms on an individual basis... how else can we protect the people from terrorists1!?!"

I say give em the power anyhow.

9 posted on 12/26/2001 6:50:31 PM PST by Robert_Paulson2
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To: anymouse
Darnit. I thought the PC in the article meant "Political correctness"! ;-)
10 posted on 12/26/2001 7:01:43 PM PST by lmr
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To: anymouse
What is it? A way to make processors that are up to 100 times faster than today's chips.
What's cool? Even Moore's Law eventually gets trumped by the laws of physics. In a few years, the current method of packing ever greater numbers of transistors onto a chip will hit a wall. But a technology called Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography may break that barrier. Intel estimates that EUVL chips will boast 400 million transistors -- about ten times more than the Pentium 4's 42 million.
When's it coming? In three to five years.
What's the catch? Software that's capable of taking advantage of all this processing muscle is nowhere in sight.
Impact meter: 8

Speech recognition can use all the cycles you can throw at it.

By that time, I'm sure Microsoft Windows XXXP will require a Pentium 8 and use up all of these CPU cycles and thirst for more.

11 posted on 12/26/2001 7:06:57 PM PST by Petronski
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To: anymouse
One factor won't change in 2002.

Journalists will still feel obligated to think up stupid puns.

12 posted on 12/26/2001 7:08:01 PM PST by x
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To: anymouse
bump
13 posted on 12/26/2001 7:08:58 PM PST by VOA
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To: Bogey78O
Since when does Gene Roddenberry's "Earth: Final Conflict" TV show have any thing to do with Scientology.

Are you thinking about the "Battlefield: Earth" movie? They're two completely different things.

14 posted on 12/26/2001 7:09:29 PM PST by chaosagent
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To: anymouse
"...technology is getter better/faster/smaller and continues to penetrate into our lives more and more and more..."

Ditto johnboy...yawn...this statement says nothing different in 2001 than it did in 1971.

GO64 and the 1541 Disk Drive!

15 posted on 12/26/2001 7:11:03 PM PST by tybalt
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To: chaosagent
Hey, as long as my turntable with 33's and 78's are working, I'm happy.
16 posted on 12/26/2001 7:20:00 PM PST by AGreatPer
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To: AGreatPer
You know, I've got some old Alvin and the Chimpmunks 78's, little scratchy, but what the heck. When technology starts to get a little too complicated, we can always regress to the simpler times.
17 posted on 12/26/2001 7:38:10 PM PST by Reaganwuzthebest
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To: anymouse
Of course, the sick part is that the driving force behind all of these technological advances will be the needs of internet porn sites.
18 posted on 12/26/2001 7:55:01 PM PST by Redcloak
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To: TimothyNRiordan
FYI
19 posted on 12/26/2001 7:56:59 PM PST by RnMomof7
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To: Robert_Paulson2
"Lotus and word perfect made the apple personal computer the envy of microslop... windows was the result..."

And the Mac is the Betamax of computers. What is their market penetration?...1%? 3%?

Apple now fully qualifies as a cult. It isn't even significant enough to be termed a "sector."

People vote with their dollars, which is why Mr. Gates has 70 billions of dollars and you have none.

--Boris

20 posted on 12/26/2001 8:00:19 PM PST by boris
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To: Robert_Paulson2
The open sourcers will eventually take massive market share away from ms...

Ain't gonna happen and the open sourcers themselves are the reason why. Much of the OS community views it as a private club for the geeky ultra-smart only and they have zero interest in making it a serious DESKTOP alternative to MS. Linux will continue to be a great server platform and a toy for hardcore geeks. Nothing more. Microsoft won the operating system wars and they're as over as the battle between VHS and Betamax.

MM

21 posted on 12/26/2001 8:12:08 PM PST by MississippiMan
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To: anymouse;Dane
When you see that a colleague is online, you can set up a conference or work session instantly -- no more telephone or e-mail tag.

I remember Jim Barksdale doing a key note presentation at Jupiter Communications back in 95 saying that he saw the Internet becoming as unencumbered as two people sitting on a park bench engaged in conversation. When I read the above I thought of how that might happen on FreeRepublic and elsewhere on the WWW.

An example... most people have an IM# signature accessed via their screen name (pop-up menu). Select the person's IM# you want to talk to and start talking. At the other end the person is signaled who the caller is (caller ID) and a subject line. He or she decides whether to respond. If yes a small window opens and you see the caller. And away you go. Conference calls would be just as easy. And the usually functions; block caller (nobody wants Dane and his ilk hounding you), ping caller list (address book) making it possible to engage people that aren't even at FreeRepublic.

22 posted on 12/26/2001 8:13:09 PM PST by Zon
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To: boris
Apple now fully qualifies as a cult. It isn't even significant enough to be termed a "sector."

Keep on drinking the BillG brand of purple Kool-Aid. It is very yummy, isn't it?

Apple sells several billion dollars' worth of computer equipment every year. They will be, in a few months, the highest-volume Unix vendor as well. You don't think that matters?

23 posted on 12/26/2001 8:31:45 PM PST by ikka
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To: anymouse
I'd be happy if Electronic Arts would just get the old M.U.L.E. team back together and release M.U.L.E. for the PC.
24 posted on 12/26/2001 8:44:13 PM PST by Bill Rice
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To: MississippiMan
actually, LOTS of offices are scheduling changeovers in os to linux derivatives in the next six months. The war is over alright. we shall see.

I use ms on lots of systems. AND I was amazed at the latest mandrake release. AMAZED. The interoperability between mac graphics servers, unix os's and microslop... was almost unbelievable. I give it 18 mos or less before ms sues them in open court for some sham of a reason to STOP market penetration. They will break 15-20 percent in the next 18-24 mos, the game is afoot. Don't believe it? Just wait and see. I KNOW it... and am NOT a linux convert yet. I REMEMBER how trends felt, when the world moved to pc's from mainframes... and this move back towards unix and more open os's is a predictable and palpable one for me. It WILL happen. Too bad linux has no "stock" to buy, THEY would be my first candidate for the current trend AWAY from microsoft by LOTS of system administration folks... some of whom are in the military.

Just wait... and scoff if you will, Gates will NOT be scoffing in the next 18-24 mos.

25 posted on 12/26/2001 9:48:43 PM PST by eccl1212
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Comment #26 Removed by Moderator

To: eccl1212
There are plenty of Linux companies out there you can buy stock in, so if you want to invest, jump right in. The stock can be had quite cheaply these days.

Understand that I'm not opposed to open source; quite the opposite in fact. I like the concept but that doesn't mean it's gonna work on a wide scale. I haven't installed a Linux distribution in a while but I'll bet much of the process is still Greek to the average PC user.

I heard all the ballyhoo about the new StarOffice and how much of an MS Office-killer it was. Went ahead and did the 100 MB download a couple of weeks ago. It failed to open (in readable fashion) the first .doc file I gave it. Tinkered with it a few more times and quickly saw that it was all a bunch of unfounded hype and uninstalled it.

I'll watch with interest but don't expect any major changes.

Good nite...

MM

27 posted on 12/26/2001 10:38:44 PM PST by MississippiMan
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To: MississippiMan
Ain't gonna happen,

But you see, it already is. It IS happening. Folks ignore it at their own peril and to their own disadvantage. Believe what you will.. I have nothing against people choosing what they want to for their os's... and never did.

I just was relaying what I am seeing in more than a few markets... and there is a trend away from ms... for the very reasons open sourcers are stating.

The latest linux stuff I tried worked REALLY smooth... and the graphics, and layout proofs and films were just fine. I am not the only person to discover this. Being in the heart of MS territory, it is more than a little disconcerting to the ms/intel crowd, but it is nonetheless true from MY perspective.

MS will continue to exist, just in a greatly diminished capacity... Each release of a "new" os is getting less and less market share than the previous one... and with unises, it is the other way around. It is a trend. YOU will see it... YOU will like it.

28 posted on 12/26/2001 11:56:29 PM PST by Robert_Paulson2
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To: chaosagent; Bogey78O
My mistake, I confused a stupid TV show with a stupid movie. :)
29 posted on 12/29/2001 12:09:09 AM PST by anymouse
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