marsha@marshablackburn.org
Posted on 03/09/2002 3:15:43 AM PST by GailA
Scramble begins for once-safe seat
By Richard Locker locker@gomemphis.com
NASHVILLE - Sen. Fred Thompson's surprising decision to end his re-election bid Friday set off a scramble among potential candidates to succeed him, with contested primaries all but certain in both the Democratic and Republican parties.
The decision came four weeks before the April 4 deadline for entering the race. However, political operatives in both parties said candidates have to announce their intentions within a few days in order to raise money for the Aug. 1 primary.
On the Republican side, former Tennessee governor Lamar Alexander and U.S. Rep. Ed Bryant said they are seriously considering the race. Close associates of both said they are all but certain to announce they are candidates - Alexander on Monday in Nashville and Bryant sometime early next week.
U.S. Rep. Zach Wamp of Chattanooga said he was taking a "hard look" at the race.
All four of Tennessee's Democratic congressmen - U.S. Reps. Bob Clement, Harold Ford Jr., Bart Gordon and John Tanner - said they were pondering whether to run, with Clement sounding more likely late Friday to jump in than the others.
Also, Jim Hall of Chattanooga, the high-profile chairman of the National Transportation Safety Board under former president Bill Clinton, indicated he will explore a candidacy as well.
Should any of the state's congressmen seek Thompson's seat, it will have a domino effect on other Tennessee elections this year, with candidates scrambling to succeed them in their congressional districts.
Ford, 31, of Memphis, said he plans a statewide tour next week to discuss a race and assess his chances. "As Tennesseans consider who will fill Senator Thompson's shoes, I intend to have a conversation on the issues with all Tennesseans, starting in my congressional district," he said.
Former vice president Al Gore of Tennessee quickly dispelled speculation Friday morning about his entering the race. "We have some outstanding Democratic leaders in Tennessee who I hope will be candidates. I will work hard to elect one of them for the Senate, but I will not be a candidate for the Senate myself."
Thompson's stunning reversal threw what had been a safe seat for the GOP into play, with control of the Senate hanging in the balance. Democrats hold a 50-49 edge, with the one independent siding with them for organizational purposes. The leaders of both the Republican and Democratic senatorial campaign committees said they expect to win Tennessee.
Sen. Bill Frist (R-Tenn.), chairman of the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee, said his committee will put its full resources behind holding the seat for the GOP. "I think there will be a number of people who want to get their profile up on the Democratic side and that's a reasonable thing to do. They're going to get beat. Tennessee is a Republican state."
Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.), the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chaiman, said: "The Tennessee Senate race, which had been stuck in the mud, has just become an incredible opportunity for Democratic pickup. It's just one more state where the Republicans will need to play defense."
Before leaving for his cabin on the edge of the Great Smoky Mountains National Park in Blount County for the weekend, Alexander, 61, said he "will seriously consider being a candidate" and will make a "prompt decision." Close associates said the former governor and U.S. education secretary under former president George H. W. Bush will announce his candidacy at the State Capitol on Monday.
Bryant, 53, of Henderson, said he was looking hard at the race.
"The odds are we are going to get in, but we just want to get a lay of the land. We are committed to doing this if things work out."
Except for Clement, the Democratic congressmen were generally more equivocal about giving up safe House seats for a far more risky run for the Senate, but none of the four would rule out a race.
Clement, 58, of Nashville, said: "I am heavily weighing the possibility of running for the U.S. Senate and this opportunity to serve Tennesseans. An announcement about my intentions will be forthcoming."
Gordon spokesman Keith Talley said that Gordon, 53, of Murfreesboro, the longest-serving member of the state's congressional delegation, "is considering the run. That's a decision he will make after he consults with his family and friends over the weekend."
Hall, who splits his time between Chattanooga and a Washington law and lobbying practice, said he intends to "visit with my family, fellow Tennessee Democrats and the members of the Tennessee delegation to explore who might be the best candidate to put forward." Hall was a top aide to former governor Ned McWherter.
Also mentioned as a possible candidate Friday was Middle Tennessee State University professor Jeff Clark, 51, the Democratic nominee against Frist in 2000.
Contact Nashville Bureau chief Richard Locker at (615) 255-4923.
Lamar Alexander gave us Goals 2000 and Out Come Based Education. We DON'T NEED MORE OF THAT junk.
Agreed, but are they strong enough to beat Ford? I think Ford is going to be tough to beat.
Wassup with that?
Somehow I find it particularly revolting to see such inauthenticity in a young man. It's as if he's been groomed by Daddy since infancy to be a professional politician, and has learned his lessons well, but has lost his soul in the process.
I'd be interested to have the observations of others who have seen him in action.
Harold Senior can deliver all the votes from every graveyard in the state. I'm sure that goes for ever motor voter and Mexi-voter. The Fords send busses to old folks homes and homeless shelters and park them in front of polling places, and people circle through as many times as they like, getting coffee, donuts and whiskey to fortify them for the next pass.
Junior is being groomed for president (therefore, if I were him, I'd stay off of airplanes until Hil and Chelsea get the presidency out of their blood and onto their resumes.) He's all style and no substance---perfect for the Dems. He needs a few years to finish learning the English most of us master in elementary school.
All you have to do is look at his MISERABLE VOTING RECORD It is so far out of line even compared to the other TN RATS in the House. Doesn't sound representative of TN to me.
Your aren't from Tennessee are you? If you were, you would know that the Ford family is nothing outside of Memphis's inner-city.
In addition to those three, several others were prominently mentioned over the years as Presidential contendors, some of whom sought or attained their party's nomination, including Albert Gore Sr., Estes Kefauver, Howard Baker, Lamar!, and Al Gore Jr. Then there was the Bass/Clement gubernatorial oligarchy, with the office being passed back and forth for decades (and another Clement even now in the mix); Boss Crump of Memphis, who could swing statewide elections in his prime; and the long-serving conservative Republican Congressmen from the mountains of East Tennessee (Carroll Reece, Jimmy Quillen, John Duncan Sr.), who would no doubt be stunned, were they still around, to find themselves in a majority not only in the House, but in the Tennessee delegation.
I graduated from Vanderbilt (yes, the same university whose Divinity School flunked out Al Gore Jr., and whose Law School he dropped out of) more than a few years ago, but I continue to keep up with Tennessee politics. Senator Frist is perhaps a touch too sanguine when he proclaims Tennessee to be a Republican state; certainly things have gone "our way" of late, but it's still a closely balanced state. Gov. Sunquist's very disappointing record, particularly regarding taxes, could give the Democrats an opening, not only in the Governor's race, but elsewhere. Still, the trend is our friend, and great progress has been made in the last decade particularly in historically Democratic Middle Tennessee, one of the last areas in the South where majorities of white voters have until the last few years continued to vote a straight Democratic ticket.
It seems to me that Tennessee will have at least two outstanding candidates for the Senate nomination.
Ed Bryant has served in the House since his election in 1994, representing a typically attenuated Tennessee district stretching from the Nashville suburbs to the Memphis suburbs, but including neither center city. His voting record is solidly conservative. He might have name recognition problems in other parts of the state, but nothing that a few million bucks won't overcome. Presumably, he's very well known in metro Memphis (where the larger of his two suburban clusters is), and to a reasonable extent in metro Nashville (where his district includes some of the outer western suburbs), so that's a good start.
Then there's Lamar Alexander (aka Lamar!), who has one of the more impressive resumes around: the first Tennessee Governor to serve two consecutive four-year terms; twice a contendor for the GOP Presidential nomination; a Cabinet member (Secretary of Education); and President of the University of Tennessee (bet it stuck in the craw of some to have a Vanderbilt grad in that position). He's marginally less conservative on some issues than Bryant, but he's no RINO. Certainly no problems with name recognition here. I'd presume Lamar! would begin as the favorite, but it could get interesting. Either, in my judgment, would be a great credit to the great state of Tennessee.
Gail I love you but Zack Wamp vote FOR this ABOMINATION called Shay's/Meehan and thus VIOLATED his oath of office!
I could NEVER vote for him but I don't live in Tennessee!
He obviously isn't as conservative as Jesse Helms or some others, but he's no Olympia Snowe or Jim Jeffords, either.
Whoever the Republicans select to replace Thompson, I'm hopeful will carry the state and keep the seat in GOP hands.
Yes, I've seen him on C-SPAN along with most of your Reps. I do like Bryant and Hilleary (but that name!) - I just hope you go with a winner because we never expected this one to even be in play. I don't live there so I can only offer moral support at this time but we will be watching with interest.
Both have outstanding records as conservatives. Wamp is my Congressman and I would hate to loose him but the Senate is in a crisis that needs addressing. He would make a great senator. Putting in more of the Gerald Ford GOP however is not the answer so I will not support Lamar even if he wins the primary. I would rather the GOP loose the seat for a term , learn it's lesson, and regroup than to continue in the current direction.
A good press release at the time from the RNC would have stated the state offers many canidates from within the GOP who are highly qualifed for senator. We hope to hear from all of them. Instead we get the White House today issued a statement that Lamar Alexander is the choice for the GOP senate position. Who's choice?
I'm an Independent voter and I will vote GOP if a suitable candidate is offered. If I see Lamar is being force fed to us by the party leadership I will vote Independent once more.
Friends,
I think Fred Barnes summed the Tennessee senate race up pretty well on Fox News Thursday: "Lamar Alexander could be Tennessee's Richard Riordan."
I have been involved in Tennessee politics for over 20 years. I have worked for Governor Alexander. I have worked for Governor Alexander's state party. I have supported him in the past.
But, plainly spoken, he's had his chance. This is the feeling among many, many Republicans. He's been governor, and he's run two failed campaigns for president. He's also picked up a lot of baggage along the way. There are ethics problems, which are well known and documented. There are problems with being a moderate, then becoming a conservative in the presidential primaries. Hypocrisy is not something quickly forgotten.
A good man and principled conservative is opposing Governor Alexander in the primary. Congressman Ed Bryant has served since 1994. He is a dedicated conservative, a fresh face, and has the fire in the belly for the race.
This will be a spirited campaign, and Governor Alexander will be able to count on the monied interests in the states -- the ones who play both sides to gain access to power. But Congressman Bryant will be able to count on thousands of grassroots Republicans across the state.
Congressman Bryant has not solicited my help nor does he know I'm sending this message. I just believe it's time for new leadership and Republicans who think and vote like Republicans.
The Democrats under Governor McWherter had a three inch file on Governor Alexander. We'll see that information in the fall if Governor Alexander is the nominee. I know this is true because Governor Alexander's folks admitted it when they asked me to back off the income tax fight in 1991.
I hope all of you will consider supporting Ed Bryant. He is exactly what we need in Washington.
And remember, Lamar has been in the background in the attempts to pass a state income tax and passed the largest tax increase in Tennessee history.
Ed is in the process of setting up a campaign, and I'm sure he'll be in touch soon. With all the media bias, I thought it important to let you know that Ed's running and I fully trust and support him.
Thanks.
Tommy
Nepotism: Tennessee may be the all-time champion. And the grand prize goes to former Senator Howard Baker (R), whose father and stepmother were Members of Congress, and whose late father-in-law was Illinois Senator Everett Dirksen, and who is now married to the former Kansas Senator Nancy Landon Kassebaum, who's father was Governor of Kansas and Republican Presidential nominee (whew). Also, 2nd District Congressman John Duncan Jr. (R) is the son of a 12-term Congressman; 5th District Congressman Bob Clement (D) is the son of a three-term Governor; and 8th District Congressman Harold Ford Jr. is the son of an 11-term Congressman. And let's not forget (though I wish I could) Senator Albert Gore Sr. and Al Gore Jr.
No Primary Runoff: Primary elections in most states require a certain minimum to avoid a runoff. A majority (50% plus 1) used to be the typical requirement; some states have gone to 40%. Tennessee has NO primary runoffs; the winner of a plurality, no matter how unimpressive it might be, gets the nomination. In 1996, 17-term District 1 Congressman Jimmy Quillen (R) decided not to seek reelection. In this most Republican district (mountains of East Tennessee), the GOP nomination is tantamount to victory. An 11-way primary ensued, won by Bill Jenkins -- with 18% of the vote. He's still in Congress.
Needless to say, the no-runoff system can produce some odd results, and it may this year, too. My guess is that if two or more Congressmen seek the GOP Senate nomination (Ed Bryant has already announced), it would sew up the race for Lamar! based on statewide name recognition. On the other side, a multi-candidate Democratic race could result in the nomination going to Harold Ford, since he would be (if he runs) the beneficiary of an automatic black bloc vote. That would suit me fine; he has no chance of winning the general election.
The Perennial Candidate: Liberal Democratic bigwigs tried to get a young up-and-comer by the name of John Jay Hooker to enter the Gubernatorial primary in 1962, but he decined to run. He did seek the nomination in 1966, but lost in the primary. He won the nomination in 1970, but lost in the general election. He ran for the Senate in 1976. He lost. After a hiatus of nearly two decades, he again sought the Senate nomination in 1994. He lost. He sought the Senate nomination again in 1998. He lost. In 1998, he again sought the Gubernatorial nomination, and to the horror of the Tennessee Democratic Party, won the nomination (aided by a fragmented field and the no-runoff rule). He lost the general election to incumbent Sundquist by a 69%-29% margin. He sought the Senate nomination in 2000. He lost. And guess who's running for the Senate in 2002?
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