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Cornyn has the advantage because there are still plenty of white people that will support him to get a narrow victory and he can label Kirk as an uber-liberal, but he really needs to get some grassroots organization going with fired up footsoldiers. White turnout this year won't be very high and minority turnout will be very high. If the whites stay home and don't vote, Cornyn could easily lose. Like I said, with Sharp at the lt. governor slot, white democrats (inspired by Sharp's image as a blue-dog conservative reinforced by the Ryan endorsement) will have a reason to vote for a Democrat this year and they could easily vote for the Democrat on the rest of the ballot. Cornyn needs those white Democrat votes to win this year. There's no margin for error.

You're underestimating conservative turnout.

Also, just wait until Cornyn gets warmed up. He's had the luxury of sitting back and filling up his warchest during the primary. This will be a fun race to watch!