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Iraq Massing 4 Divisions on Jordanian Frontier Border
World Net Daily.com and DEBKAfile Security and Terrorism Newsletter ^ | April 24, 2002 | Gioria Shamis and Diane Shalem (Former 'The Economist' Magazine Reporter-30 year yeteran)

Posted on 04/24/2002 8:46:56 AM PDT by codebreaker

DEKAfile's military sources provide details of the Iraqi troop movements.

The force Iraq started massing some weeks ago contains 3-4 of its 7 crack Republican Guard Divisions, which are stationed in the center of the country opposite the Jordanian frontier. They are fanned out across a 300 sq.km stretch of land, bounded by four bases:H-3 Main, H-3 Southwest, and H-3 Northwest-350 km. west of Baghdad-and the big al Baghdadi ground and air base west of town of Rutbah.

The Iraqi high command reckons the first American strike, carried out under the cover of bombing and missile barrage, will try and capture this area and take over the four bases-much in the way a main US base was set up in Kandahar, Afhganistan. From there the US forces will threaten the capital Baghdad.

The Iraqi response will be to divide their strength into two contingents. One leg by Saddam Hussein's son Qusay, will fall back towards Baghdad; the other will push into Jordan and sieze its eastern region, ready for an eventual move into the capital Amman. The Israeli troop concentration the Saudis are referring to-whose presence Israeli spokesmen deny-is poised to defend Jordan against this very Iraqi assault.

By his pincer movement, Saddam hopes to crush the American force, trapping it in a isolated pocket, vulnerable to a blitz of missiles carrying chemical and biological agents. Simultaneously, Iraqi missile barrages will be aimed at Israel and US military targets in the Jewish state, as well as American military facilities in the Gulf, Kuwait and Qatar.Iraq is also set to counter alternative US tatics. This week, Baghdad deployed heavy reinforcements of anti-air missile batteries in the southern and northern no-fly zones patrolled by US and British allied planes. This move was a preventative measure against a possible US attempt to sieze Iraq's northern and southern oilfields. The batteries are aimed not only against bombers but also large scale helicopter squadrons flying US and British Marines in from Kuwait, Oman or Turkey.


TOPICS: Breaking News; Foreign Affairs; Israel; Political Humor/Cartoons; Russia; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: border; debka; iraq; israel; jordan; republicanguard; russia; waronterror
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A defensive or aggressive move?
1 posted on 04/24/2002 8:46:56 AM PDT by codebreaker
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To: codebreaker
more like Suicide.....putting massed armor formations in the open desert without air cover makes for a target rich environment......
2 posted on 04/24/2002 8:48:54 AM PDT by ken5050
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To: codebreaker
Sigh.

DEBKA.

3 posted on 04/24/2002 8:50:53 AM PDT by kidd
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To: codebreaker
One leg by Saddam Hussein's son Qusay, will fall back towards Baghdad

Qusay?? The critter that has to disarm to see his old man?

4 posted on 04/24/2002 8:53:44 AM PDT by Cachelot
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To: codebreaker
A defensive or aggressive move?

I think they want to be first in line to surrender. ;)

5 posted on 04/24/2002 8:54:02 AM PDT by Schnucki
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Comment #6 Removed by Moderator

To: kidd; codebreaker
Nobody, at least in civilized countries, wants war. The Bush administration correctly identified Iraq as a threat in the region. As long as a madman like Saddam Hussein rules that country, I really believe war is pretty much inevitable. This won't be the first time he's tried to occupy a neighboring country, will it?

Saddam's emnity towards Israel is well known. Capturing Jordan gives him a border with Israel and a base from which to attack. He will try to portray himself as the savior of the Palestinians, and by extension, the entire Arab world.

So... while I agree with the sigh and wish there was a way to avoid all this, I think we, as a nation, have to be prepared to protect our interests and our friends in the region, which happen to include both Jordan and Israel.

7 posted on 04/24/2002 8:56:34 AM PDT by anotherview
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To: codebreaker
By his pincer movement, Saddam hopes to crush the American force, trapping it in a isolated pocket, vulnerable to a blitz of missiles carrying chemical and biological agents.

And I hope to take Anna Kournikova on a romantic cruise.

Perhaps Debka will cover that story when it doesn’t happen!

8 posted on 04/24/2002 8:57:32 AM PDT by dead
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To: codebreaker
A defensive or aggressive move?

A figment of Debka's overactive imagination.

9 posted on 04/24/2002 8:57:35 AM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: Lazarus Long
That is what Saddam is banking on.. (but he won't get it)
10 posted on 04/24/2002 8:58:10 AM PDT by codebreaker
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Comment #11 Removed by Moderator

To: codebreaker
I think they call em crack troops as that was all you could see as they ran from us in Desert Storm.......the iraqi cracky's sons must have believed their fathers BS great victory stories and now are ready to get froggy themselves........:o) !

Stay Safe !

12 posted on 04/24/2002 8:59:09 AM PDT by Squantos
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To: First Team
you saw that side of them too eh ?:o)......
13 posted on 04/24/2002 9:00:14 AM PDT by Squantos
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To: codebreaker
crack Republican Guard Divisions

Bwahahahahahahah.... <thump>

Ooops. I just fell out of my chair.
It's more like Republican Guard Divisions on crack.
Bwahahahahah!

Anyway, I thought it was funny. (That and DEBKA.)

14 posted on 04/24/2002 9:00:20 AM PDT by SpottedBeaver
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To: codebreaker
Are these the same divisions DEBKA said had already crossed the Jordanian border enroute to Israel a few months back?
15 posted on 04/24/2002 9:01:13 AM PDT by Hugin
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To: anotherview
Saddam's emnity towards Israel is well known. Capturing Jordan gives him a border with Israel and a base from which to attack. He will try to portray himself as the savior of the Palestinians, and by extension, the entire Arab world.

The problem with this analysis, is the IDF will attack Iraq the very moment they invade Jordan for 2 reasons: 1. Jordan & Israel have signed a peace deal; Israel will defend Jordan. 2. the IDF will, rightfully, consider such a move as an invasion of Israel itself.

16 posted on 04/24/2002 9:03:08 AM PDT by Dixie republican
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Comment #17 Removed by Moderator

To: Hugin
I remember that report, weren't they running guerilla raids or something like that as preparation for an invasion movement?
18 posted on 04/24/2002 9:03:32 AM PDT by codebreaker
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To: codebreaker
This looks an awful lot like another DEBKA article from 6 or 8 months ago. Those Iraqis that have been massed on the Jordanian border since last fall must be getting hungry.
19 posted on 04/24/2002 9:06:19 AM PDT by Alberta's Child
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To: codebreaker
Iraqi response will be to divide their strength into two contingents...

Ask General Yellow Hair about this tactic.

20 posted on 04/24/2002 9:06:22 AM PDT by Lysander
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To: Dixie republican
Do you really think that the Jordanians, even if they were being invaded, would allow IDF units to enter the country and defend it? Seems implausible to me. Wouldn't that leave Israel vulnerable to Syrian Armor in the North through Lebanon and the Golan and Egyptian Armor in the South through the Sinai.
21 posted on 04/24/2002 9:07:09 AM PDT by StAthanasiustheGreat
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To: codebreaker
Started to get exited about it until I saw "Debka". If 4 iraqi divisions were massing near a Jordanian border it would be on Fox and pmsnbc.
22 posted on 04/24/2002 9:07:25 AM PDT by dc-zoo
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To: Hugin
Sorry -- I didn't see your post when I posted mine! LOL!
23 posted on 04/24/2002 9:07:29 AM PDT by Alberta's Child
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To: Hugin
Actually, I believe they are meeting up with the 600,000 Chinese troops already amassed there.
24 posted on 04/24/2002 9:10:15 AM PDT by stilts
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To: codebreaker
Get ready for THE MOTHER OF ALL BATTLES!

Oh? That line's already been used?

How about,... Get ready for THE LINE OF DEATH!

Uh, that one too?

Let's try,... Get ready for THE GRANDADDY OF ALL DEFEATS!

Yes. That one fits!

25 posted on 04/24/2002 9:17:12 AM PDT by Gritty
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To: codebreaker
One leg by Saddam Hussein's son Qusay, will fall back towards Baghdad; the other will push into Jordan and sieze its eastern region, ready for an eventual move into the capital Amman.

That's why they always loose: they simply miscalculate the length of Qusay's legs.

26 posted on 04/24/2002 9:17:42 AM PDT by TopQuark
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To: First Team
HA!!!!!
27 posted on 04/24/2002 9:19:06 AM PDT by abraxas_sandiego
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To: codebreaker
De Ja News?
28 posted on 04/24/2002 9:19:43 AM PDT by Destructor
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To: stilts
Just so everybody knows what a good track record Debka has in these matters....

FROM DEBKA INTELLIGENCE FILES
Iraq's war move in Jordan
Troops secretly infiltrate in preparation for attack on Israel
July 27, 2001



Editor's note: DEBKAfile's electronic news publication is a news-cum-analysis live wire, online round the clock seven days a week. A weekly edition, DEBKA-Net-Weekly, is now available through WorldNetDaily.com. Drawing on DEBKAfile's unique sources, analytical talents and forward-looking insights, it is presented as a compact, intelligence-angled weekly package. It is available as a direct e-mail feed or via the Internet.


© 2001 WorldNetDaily.com

Iraqi President Saddam Hussein has secretly dispatched troops across the frontier in Jordan in preparation for an attack on Israel, according to the intelligence sources of DEBKA-Net-Weekly.

Iraq military units have been infiltrating neighboring Jordan for the past 10 days, according to the report. Their mission, say DEBKA sources, is to reach the Israeli border, cross the Jordan River and move into the main Palestinian cities of the West Bank – Ramallah, Jenin, Nablus and Bethlehem – and fight alongside the Palestinians.

The invading units are highly trained and well-equipped commandos able to operate and survive in the field for long periods when cut off from their headquarters and sources of supply, the report says. They are still reportedly in the Jordanian desert.

The incursion was detected by Israeli reconnaissance planes and the Ofek 3 and 5 spy satellites.

Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon immediately dispatched high-ranking Israeli army intelligence officers to Amman to show King Abdullah of Jordan the evidence of the Iraqi penetration to his kingdom.

The king at once proclaimed a supreme state of alert in all Jordanian army units. Israel poured troops into the Jordan Valley region, deploying them along the Jordan River and Jordanian frontier to block off the West Bank to Iraqi penetration.

According to DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s military sources, the Iraqi forces’ first entry point in Jordan was Wadi El Murbah in the central zone of its eastern border with Iraq. From there, they moved to Wadi Athner. A second penetration area was Wadi Hawran in southwest Iraq, not far from the points where the Iraqi, Saudi and Jordanian frontiers meet. The Iraqi forces advanced through the wadi, bypassing Jabal Unayzah in Iraq and coming out inside Jordanian territory near the town of Ruwayshid.

DEBKA's sources in Amman and Jerusalem report that both Israel and Jordan view the Iraqi military operation as an act of war against them. While maintaining official silence, certainly on the Iraqi invasion of Jordan, both countries consider themselves in a state of war with Iraq.

Jordan did attempt in the first days of the incursion to encircle the Iraqi intruders and capture them. But some days of intensive effort with airborne support showed the Jordanian Special Forces that they are no match for 1,000 to 1,500 crack Iraqi commandos. Jordanian fighter planes sent into action were met by dozens of Iraqi fighters, put up over the penetration regions, from Al-Baghdadi, the main Iraqi air base in the central region, south of the town of Arrutba. When SA-6 surface-to-air missile batteries at two recently reopened Iraqi air bases, H3 in the northwest and H3 in the northeast, lit up their radar and locked on to the elderly Jordanian aircraft, lacking electronic counter-measures, they turned tail without snapping a single reconnaissance photo.

The Jordanian monarch then reportedly made his first approach to the U.S. and Israel for help. Israeli reconnaissance aircraft, under the umbrella of Israeli fighter planes, flew into Jordanian airspace. Whenever they appeared, Iraqi planes bugged out and Iraqi missile battery operators turned off their radar. Jordan also sent desert reconnaissance patrols and intelligence units into Iraq to bring back information on supply lines and reinforcements.

What they found sounded even louder alarm bells in Amman: The elite Hummarabi division of the Republican Guard, equipped with T-72 tanks, was now in position between the Jordanian border and the two H bases. They also learned that the Iraqi army had sent at least four armored infantry brigades into the area.

Equally troubling, at the beginning of the week, the Iraqi force already in Jordan was sighted moving west, several groups having reached the sand dunes and wadis known as Abu Haffrah, about 80 kilometers (50 miles) inside Jordanian territory.

King Abdullah decided to take command of the Jordanian forces still chasing the Iraqis intruders.

DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s military sources report that the longer the king, a career officer before he ascended the throne, spent out in the field in eastern Jordan, the more anxious he became. He realized that overcoming the Iraqi force already inside the kingdom would not end his worries. There was still the next stage of Saddam’s plan to face up to, as indicated in the latest intelligence reports on his desk. Iraq had a second wave of troops poised ready to cross into Jordan. Furthermore, Saddam Hussein had secretly appointed his eldest son, Qusay, supreme commander of what the Iraqi president was now describing as “the Iraqi-Jordanian-Israeli front”.

At a military ceremony attended by top Iraqi generals, Saddam, the reports said, had sworn to spare neither effort nor money to provide Qusay with any reinforcements he might request.

Qusay is said to have set up his headquarters at al-Bagdad air force base, to the rear of the Iraqi forces deployed between the H bases and the Jordanian border.

Jordanian intelligence also reported a large concentration of Iraqi forces on the main roads leading from Iraq to Damascus and from Iraq to the Golan Heights.

The Jordanian king was forced to realize that he was not dealing merely with a small-scale invasion of mobile Iraqi forces, but with preparations by his eastern neighbor for war on a regional scale, far beyond the scope of the Jordanian army on its own.

What the intelligence reports omitted to mention was whether Saddam Hussein’s move had been coordinated with either – or both – Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat and Syrian President Bashar Assad.

DEBKA-Weekly-Net sources in Jerusalem and Washington report that at the beginning of the week, King Abdullah put his overseas connections to the test. He asked President Bush for American intervention against the Iraqi threat. He also turned to Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon to invoke the secret Israeli-Jordanian defense pact signed by the late King Hussein and Yitzhak Rabin that obliges Israel to act against military or terrorist elements endangering the existence of the Kingdom of Jordan or the Hashemite throne.

Several of DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s sources report that Israel has taken initial steps in fulfillment of its pact with Jordan. Those steps have reportedly met with some resistance in Washington. When consulted, the Bush administration indicated that however small, Israel’s moves must be kept utterly secret so as not to upset U.S. plans for Iraq.

The coming weekend will be crucial in this regard, according to the report. The Jordanian-Iraqi clashes, if they continue, could be the first military step on the road to a Middle East war – without the world even noticing.

 

29 posted on 04/24/2002 9:22:28 AM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: TopQuark
The source makes this questionable, I agree. However, another thread today has an article claiming that the Saudis are massing on THEIR boder with Jordan, supposedly facing Israeli forces on the Israeli/Jordan border. On Fox News last night someone was claiming that we have 100,000 troops in Kuwait right now! I have no idea if any of this is true, but I intend to keep my eyes on FR as closely as possible.
30 posted on 04/24/2002 9:23:35 AM PDT by Lucius Cornelius Sulla
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To: codebreaker
Iraq Massing 4 Divisions on Jordanian Frontier Border

DEBKA must have read yesterday's story about Saudi Arabia massing 8 Brigades on the Jordanian Border and felt that someone was "out-fabricating" them.

31 posted on 04/24/2002 9:23:49 AM PDT by PBRSTREETGANG
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To: First Team
LOL
32 posted on 04/24/2002 9:24:12 AM PDT by ecomcon
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To: codebreaker
DEBKA goes to war? This piece is not up to their usual standard, lacks imagination and is obviously written by a trainee recently fired from Weekly World News.
33 posted on 04/24/2002 9:24:42 AM PDT by RightWhale
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To: TopQuark
That's why they always loose: they simply miscalculate the length of Qusay's legs.

Qusay should be careful. Only bad things can happen when you spread your legs that far.

34 posted on 04/24/2002 9:26:36 AM PDT by PBRSTREETGANG
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To: Dog Gone
Thanks for the refresher, that previous Iraqi op might have been a lot of recon for a coming battle plan.
35 posted on 04/24/2002 9:26:55 AM PDT by codebreaker
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To: PBRSTREETGANG
Good one..
36 posted on 04/24/2002 9:28:35 AM PDT by codebreaker
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To: codebreaker
We would all appreciate it if no stories by Debka are posted in Breaking News.

At least identify it in the header as a Debka story.

37 posted on 04/24/2002 9:28:44 AM PDT by Thud
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To: NWU Army ROTC
Do you really think that the Jordanians, even if they were being invaded, would allow IDF units to enter the country and defend it?

Would they have a choice? What could they possibly do to stop them? Throw rocks?
38 posted on 04/24/2002 9:29:33 AM PDT by AdA$tra
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To: kidd
Doh! I've been Debka'd!
39 posted on 04/24/2002 9:29:53 AM PDT by TheDon
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To: codebreaker
Seems to me they're moving their troops into this region in order to bomb Israel using scuds in hopes of pulling them into the war. You bring Israel into the war and all Arab nations will unite against Israel and the United States. Pretty sound strategy by that pantywaste, Sadam.
40 posted on 04/24/2002 9:30:18 AM PDT by oldvike
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To: dead
And I hope to take Anna Kournikova on a romantic cruise.

Perhaps you should hire a world renowned poilitcal strategist to help facilitate that endeavor.

41 posted on 04/24/2002 9:32:52 AM PDT by MassExodus
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To: ken5050
putting massed armor formations in the open desert without air cover makes for a target rich environment......

Yes, it is suicide, but it also protects their mobile scud units from American Special Forces grounds troops. In the Gulf War America used ground troops to track down and "paint" mobile scuds so our planes could then bomb them. Apparently, it's too difficult to track the mobile scuds via satelite so the USA must use ground troops to track them down. The massive numbers of Iraqi ground troops will make it difficult for our Special Forces to get to the mobile scuds.

42 posted on 04/24/2002 9:33:35 AM PDT by oldvike
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To: codebreaker
Thanks for the refresher, that previous Iraqi op might have been a lot of recon for a coming battle plan.

No, my sarcasm apparently wasn't obvious enough. The Iraqi "invasion" of Jordan last summer never happened. Just like the Chinese troops sent to fight alongside the Taliban never happened.

Debka makes this crap up.

43 posted on 04/24/2002 9:34:18 AM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: codebreaker
A defensive or aggressive move?

Given the source, DEBKA, fanstasy may be the adjective you are searching for.

But, considering the sage advice that even a blind squirrel sometimes finds a nut...

"Fanstasy" is still the word to use. The Iraqis would be pitting strength against strength. Sun-tzu teaches us to pit strength against weakness. The simple truth is that even with a "home field advantage", the Iraqi military is incapable of withstanding an American onslaught. They tried that against Bush the Elder and got pummelled. The Al Qaeda and the Taliban tried it against Bush the Younger to the same result. Saddam can move his forces where ever he pleases; no military option will help him. Sun-tzu teaches us to defeat an enemy who's already been defeated before the battle even starts. You beat an enemy by depriving him of allies, cutting him off from resources, sowing dissension within his ranks, etc.. In these areas, the US has already beaten Iraq. They are isolated and ill suited to the type of campaign necessary to defeating the Americans. Defense in depth from positions within Jordan and Saudi Arabia might have worked, but Saddam's in no position to mount such a campaign. He's beaten before a single shot's been fired. His only option is to sue for peace. But if this report is accurate, then he's setting himself up for another drubbing.

44 posted on 04/24/2002 9:34:22 AM PDT by Redcloak
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To: codebreaker
If at all true, this would make it a LOT easier for W. It sure would settle the "moral clarity" issue. It would be clearly us against them. this time fighting side by side with the IDF. As it should be. And yes, it does indeed look like a target rich environment.
45 posted on 04/24/2002 9:34:55 AM PDT by AdA$tra
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To: ken5050
more like Suicide.....putting massed armor formations in the open desert without air cover makes for a target rich environment..

I hope they learned not to run their engines and have figured out how to stop infra red energy from their sun heated tanks from lighting them up as targets.

46 posted on 04/24/2002 9:35:47 AM PDT by OReilly
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To: kidd
Was it not yesterday that the Saudi's had positioned 8 brigades at some Jordanian border. Okay who will it be on what border tomorrow?
47 posted on 04/24/2002 9:36:38 AM PDT by TexKat
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To: oldvike
It is especially suicidal if, like last time, Saddam just parks his vehicles out in the open and doesn't require them to move around on a frequent basis.

Personally, I think that if Saddams really believes that we are planning to invade his country no matter what he does, he will strike soon, even if doing so is completely futile, becasue he has nothing to lose and because the US is only going to get more prepared in the coming months.

48 posted on 04/24/2002 9:37:36 AM PDT by Stingray51
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To: Stingray51
The thing is that Sadam knows he stands no chance against the USA, but if he starts bombing Israel all hell will break loose in the middle east and our "Coalition" will fall apart in a second.
49 posted on 04/24/2002 9:39:50 AM PDT by oldvike
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To: MassExodus
Where did you get the Dick Morris image!!
50 posted on 04/24/2002 9:40:38 AM PDT by codebreaker
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