No at all. I think Bush won't attack Saddam for prudential reasons. And, I'm not saying he will *never* attack Iraq. I think there will be an escalating military campaign against targets in Iraq, probably starting next year after the UN and the Congress kill a few months debating this and that. Bush needs time: all this tough talk to the UN is briar rabbit stuff -- he wants them to kill more time with debates and weapons inspection bullsh*t.
We are going to try to isolate Saddam Hussein by many means. But we are in no better position to remove Saddam from power today than we were in 1991 -- in fact, we are in a much worse position. This is not a question of conventional military strength. We could kill him tomorrow and install an obliging, pragmatic general in his place if that were the issue. That would certainly take care of the WMD problem and the terror sponsorship problem. But, Saddam isn't suicidal. There's a reason for his defiance. He's not as weak as he looks.
In 1991 Saddam's insurance policy was his ability to strike Israel with anthrax and botulinum toxin. Now he has shown his reach extends to the continental United States. That is logical, because his provocation is much worse this time, so the insurance has to be that much better -- else he would never have attacked us. He's not stupid.
Saddam's ability to inflict mass death on his enemies in a final showdown is the ultimate governing factor in determining the risks he is prepared to take. In 1991, when his reach extended only to Israel, since his WMD were limited to liquid anthrax and botulinum delivered by aerial bombs and Scuds, he could take a chance on grabbing the world's oil supply -- calculating that he could always pull back if we took after him. Now he has aerosolizable, hand-deliverable anthrax and access to a pool of human bombs to release it here on command. That's a pretty good back-end threat: as of today, there is nothing we can do to stop him following through. That's what emboldened him to destroy the WTC and attempt to destroy the Capitol last year. Bush has no answer to that -- yet.