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Battleground Senate Races, Website Links
personal research | 9-12-02 | patriciaruth

Posted on 09/12/2002 8:50:57 PM PDT by patriciaruth

"Pray as if it all depended on God; work as if it all depended on you."

Close, possible pickups: South Dakota, Missouri, Georgia, New Jersey and Minnesota.

Possible losses: Arkansas, New Hampshire, Texas, North Carolina

If lightening strikes, may pickup: Iowa

South Dakota: John Thune, current Congressman, (articulate, affable, attractive in an August debate with Johnson) running against Tim Johnson, current Senator.
Last poll: 40%-40% announced just before the debate

Link to www.johnthune.com

John Thune for South Dakota
P.O. Box 516
Sioux Falls, SD 57101

New Jersey: Doug Forrester (bio: former assistant state treasurer, now small businessman and university instructor) is running against Senator Robert Torricelli, who got a reprimand from the Senate Ethics Committee and may be vulnerable. Forrester creamed the Torch in a recent debate, and he was ahead of Torricelli in the last poll.

Link to www.forrester2002.com

Forrester 2002, Inc.
3535 Quakerbridge Road, Suite 400
Hamilton, NJ 08619

Minnesota: Norm Coleman, former mayor of St. Paul, running against Paul Wellstone, current Senator.

Link to www.colemanforsenate.com

Coleman for U.S. Senate
1410 Energy Park Dr, Ste. 11
St. Paul, MN 55108-9865

New Hampshire: U.S. Representative John Sununu, son of former Governor, defeated current Senator Bob Smith in the September 10th primary and faces current Democrat governor, Jean Shaneen, in the general election for Senator. (Smith disaffected too many Republicans when he changed his party registration to Independent a few years ago and then changed his mind and came back.) Sununu has less than two months to knit the party back together for the general election to retain the seat against a tough opponent, who probably would have defeated Smith.

Link to www.johnsununu.org

Team Sununu
PO Box 500
Rye, NH 03870

Missouri: Jim Talent, former Congressman from St. Louis, against current Senator Jean Carnahan (who was appointed when her dead husband narrowly "won" in 2000 election over John Ashcroft). There is talk that if Talent wins he may be allowed to take the seat immediately.
last Zogby poll: Talent 47%-46% Carnahan

Link to www.talentforsenate.com

Jim Talent for Senate
9433 Olive Boulevard
St. Louis, MO 63132

Arkansas: Senator Tim Hutchinson challenged strongly by state attorney general Mark Pryor. Sen. Hutchinson, a former Baptist minister, is in trouble for reelection because of his divorce and remarriage after winning the Senate seat in 1996 on a platform of family values. He won his primary by 70% against another Christian conservative so the voters may be starting to forgive him, but he was down 10 points in an August poll. Without help, this is our most likely loss.

Link to www.tim2002.com

Hutchinson for Senate
PO Box 998
Rogers, AR 72756

Georgia: U.S. Rep. Saxby Chambliss against current Senator Max Cleland.

Link to www.saxby.org

Texas: State Attorney General John Cornynis running close in the polls to Democrat Ron Kirk, former mayor of Dallas. Current Senator Phil Graham is retiring. Democrat Kirk is getting lots of financial support from outside the state because he is black and because Democrats want to embarrass Bush in his home state of Texas.

Link to www.johncornyn.com

John Cornyn for Senate, Inc.
P.O. Box 13026
Austin, Texas 78711

Iowa: U.S. Representative Greg Ganske is challenging current Senator Tom Harkin. Although he was behind in last poll, he may gain ground with the ad campaign in urban areas.

Link to www.elizabethdole.org

Dole 2002 Committee
P.O. Box 2109
Salisbury, NC 28145-9982


TOPICS: Activism/Chapters; Announcements; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: arkansas; dougforrester; electionuscongress; elizabethdole; georgia; gregganske; iowa; jimtalent; johncornyn; johnsununu; johnthune; minnesota; missouri; newhampshire; newjersey; normcoleman; northcarolina; saxbychambliss; senateraces; southdakota; texas; timhutchinson
In order to get conservative judges approved by the Senate, we need to win the Senate majority. Please pick a few candidates and send them contributions via the links provided, or via the U.S. Postal Service. If Talent can win in Missouri we might get control of the Senate in time to vote for the invasion of Iraq, as Carnahan was only appointed to serve "until the next election."

I was having trouble uploading www.saxby.org, which is why I don't have a postal address for Chambliss. If anyone has a better URL for that race, please post it.

PLEASE PING your friends who might be able to help. And please BUMP this thread so that it is brought to the attention of as many FReepers as possible.

Finally, will those who run across polls for these races please post them here, or if you see another Senate race where we are in trouble please let us know.

1 posted on 09/12/2002 8:50:57 PM PDT by patriciaruth
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To: patriciaruth
I don't think Dole is going to lose. Last pole I saw her up by like 20 points (which was a while ago though) against Bowles
2 posted on 09/12/2002 8:56:42 PM PDT by rb22982
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To: patriciaruth
Address:

Chambliss for Senate

PO Box 12469

Atlanta, GA 30355

3 posted on 09/12/2002 8:57:09 PM PDT by JulieRNR21
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To: rb22982
Bowles is a Clintonista, and they run vicious campaigns. Plus, let's face it, Elizabeth is not good at this kind of fight and money and the expertise money can buy will help her.
4 posted on 09/12/2002 8:59:46 PM PDT by patriciaruth
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To: JulieRNR21
Thanks for the Chambliss address!
5 posted on 09/12/2002 9:07:20 PM PDT by patriciaruth
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To: patriciaruth
I fully support all of these Republican nominees, and have done some work to help all of them.

However, they are all fully funded by the National Party...in fact, they are awash in cash.

Perhaps some FReepers might be more interested in supporting someone the powers-that-be are ignoring; fellow FReeper Jay Wolfe of West Virginia, who is running a very strong, but underfunded, effort against incumbent Dem Senator Jay Rockefeller.

Friends of Jay Wolfe
P.O. Box 364
Salem, WV 26426

http://www.jaywolfe.net
6 posted on 09/12/2002 9:15:17 PM PDT by EternalVigilance
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To: patriciaruth
I still don't see it (her losing) happening, under any conditions. 99-1 says she wins, and by a large amount.
7 posted on 09/12/2002 9:43:01 PM PDT by rb22982
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To: rb22982
No way Dole Losses NC
8 posted on 09/12/2002 9:49:07 PM PDT by scooby321
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To: EternalVigilance
Do you have any poll numbers on Jay Wolfe?

If he has some realistic chance, I'd be happy to send to him instead of to Elizabeth.

9 posted on 09/12/2002 10:29:08 PM PDT by patriciaruth
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To: kattracks; JohnHuang2; Miss Marple; section9; MJY1288
If any of you run across poll numbers for any of these candidates, could you please post here or a link here?

Also, are there any races you believe are worth more consideration?

10 posted on 09/12/2002 10:31:43 PM PDT by patriciaruth
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To: patriciaruth
Nope--and that's one reason why the Party is ignoring us. They only care about poll numbers and cash on hand.

Of course, the folks making those decisions are the same ones who said that WV was unwinnable in 2000 for the President...they spent less than 10 grand here.

Fortunately for all of us--and for our country--the grassroots activists in the counties and precincts of this state didn't believe them---and delivered WV's 5 electoral votes to Bush anyhow.

And, as they say, the rest is history.

EV
11 posted on 09/12/2002 10:44:15 PM PDT by EternalVigilance
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To: patriciaruth
Thanks for the links!

BTTT

12 posted on 09/12/2002 10:46:03 PM PDT by nutmeg
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To: EternalVigilance
Don't have any poll numbers or afraid I will blanch if he is 15 or 20 points behind?
13 posted on 09/12/2002 11:10:50 PM PDT by patriciaruth
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To: patriciaruth
Don't have any because it would be foolish in the extreme to spend thousands of dollars on polling that are currently being spent to successfully win votes.
14 posted on 09/12/2002 11:24:44 PM PDT by EternalVigilance
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To: EternalVigilance
Newspapers and others sometimes have polls done that come into the public domain, so I was not implying he should have done them himself.

I think that the Democrats have made a HUGE error in shifting the debate to Iraq in the last two months before the election. And I think it means that some places we couldn't have anticipated before as being vulnerable, like West Virginia, will come into play as a result of this stupid tactical move by the Dims.

I am seriously considering your call to donate to the West Virginia race. I'm not a fat cat, so it won't be a lot, but maybe others will consider supporting your candidate.

I'll go to his website and check him out.

15 posted on 09/12/2002 11:42:47 PM PDT by patriciaruth
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To: Cultural Jihad
Something of interest, to us all. :-)
16 posted on 09/12/2002 11:47:07 PM PDT by nopardons
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To: EternalVigilance
See, you can make a difference. I just donated some money to Jay Wolfe's campaign.

Boy, am I a soft touch.:-)

17 posted on 09/12/2002 11:52:27 PM PDT by patriciaruth
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To: EternalVigilance
I also have this address in my files:

Friends of Jay Wolfe Committee
PO Box 89
Salem, WV 26426

Can you tell me which address is the best?

18 posted on 09/13/2002 12:55:52 AM PDT by patriciaruth
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To: patriciaruth
You need to add CO as a possible GOP loss, and I think it's safe to remove NC as at risk. TN is more worrisome to me than NC, though I think Lamar will pull it out. There are a ton of polls on all these races, from a variety of sources. I have a spreadsheet with over 185 Senate polls, but it's not something you can post here. But here's a link that might help. Senate Polls

Scroll down below Governor Races to get to the Senate polls.

19 posted on 09/13/2002 7:46:33 AM PDT by Coop
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To: *Election US Congress
Index Bump
20 posted on 09/13/2002 8:05:51 AM PDT by Free the USA
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To: patriciaruth
Box 89 is fine...it's the primary campaign address.

I just give out the Box 364 addy to distinguish the national support I'm able to find to help Jay....but either is fine.
21 posted on 09/13/2002 8:30:30 AM PDT by EternalVigilance
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To: patriciaruth
Thank you bump
22 posted on 09/13/2002 9:24:45 AM PDT by CPT Clay
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To: Coop
My husband agrees with you that the Colorado Senate race is under the radar and shouldn't be. We just watched a debate between the environmental, corporate crimes lawyer and Allard, the veterinarian current Senator.

Opponent appeared with mustache and no tie and a flag pin in his lapel. Allard was, well, "low key" might be a way to put it, in his demeanor for this debate in the Western, rural half of the state, and not as sharp and aggressive as the Republican governor had been in his debate just before this one, but he had positions and answers and proof he had been working for the State and did okay.

Luckily, his opponent isn't a down home guy but a lawyer who leans a touch toward environmental wacko. Hopefully Colorado isn't totally inundated with Aspen liberals yet, so Allard may hold on despite the apparently vicious ad campaign the Dems are running against him.

Still, vicious ads may back fire against the Dems in Western Colorado like it may be backfiring against the Dems in Southern North Carolina.

Please keep me alerted to any shift in the polls there.

23 posted on 09/13/2002 10:32:42 PM PDT by patriciaruth
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To: Coop
Thanks for the website! Here are some of the last polls they are reporting, with dates and margins of error.

ARKANSAS: Hutchinson 47% Pryor 44% Tarrance Group (R) 9/3-4 4.4%

COLORADO: Allard 46% Stickland 35% Stanley (L) 6% Hill Research (R) 8/24-25 4%

TEXAS: Cornyn 33% Kirk 38% Fairbanks Maslin Maullin & Assoc. (D) 9/3-5 3.6%

SOUTH DAKOTA: Thune 44% Johnson 48% Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) 9/3-5 4%

NORTH CAROLINA: Dole 56% Bowles 39% Survey U.S.A. 8/24 2.4%

NEW JERSEY: Forrester 40% Torricelli 41% Newark Star-Ledger 9/3-8 4%

NEW HAMPSHIRE: Sununu 44% Shaheen 43% Concord Monitor 8/26-28 4%

MISSOURI: Talent 45% Carnahan 46% Research 2000 9/3-5 4%

24 posted on 09/13/2002 10:58:35 PM PDT by patriciaruth
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To: patriciaruth
so Allard may hold on despite the apparently vicious ad campaign the Dems are running against him.

The obvious braindead observation here is that the Republican Party continues to fail to realize that KEY swing voters (those that actually decide an election) are attracted to candidates that come out swinging. Even some Dems will say "this guy's got balls" or something to that effect and vote Republican.

There is a fine line between running a negative ad and balancing it with taste. THAT IS where these elections will be won.

McBride will do exactly that against Jeb Bush in Florida and he will win (unfortunately)- and all because the Republican Party is stupid in campaigns- don't get it.

The most important thing for Republicans (other than actual effective strategy and tactics that CONNECT with people) is for Republicans to set up phone banks to get out the vote in recod numbers.

This has to be a serious effort if we want to bring the Senate back to Repubs. Make each local precinct an attempt to have a RECORD NUMBER of Republicans show up at the polls.

That is the MOST important thing to accomplish.

25 posted on 09/15/2002 2:11:34 AM PDT by GotDangGenius
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To: GotDangGenius
Make each local precinct an attempt to have a RECORD NUMBER of Republicans show up at the polls. That is the MOST important thing to accomplish.

Absolutely and totally agree.

26 posted on 09/15/2002 10:53:52 PM PDT by patriciaruth
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To: patriciaruth
Hopefully Colorado isn't totally inundated with Aspen liberals yet, so Allard may hold on despite the apparently vicious ad campaign the Dems are running against him.

Colorado has been trending GOP the last few years - definitely an advantage for Allard.

27 posted on 09/16/2002 6:59:09 AM PDT by Coop
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To: GotDangGenius
all because the Republican Party is stupid in campaigns- don't get it.

Really? Well, then the GOP sure is lucky to have the White House, the House and a majority of the governorships. Not to mention a split Senate. Not bad for not having a clue how to conduct a campaign!

28 posted on 09/16/2002 7:00:41 AM PDT by Coop
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To: All
I just noticed that the copy glitch grimlin caused this information to not show in the main article above. (I left out a quotation mark.)

Iowa: U.S. Representative Greg Ganske is challenging current Senator Tom Harkin. Although he was behind in last poll, he may gain ground with the ad campaign in urban areas.

Link to www.ganskeforsenate.org (Credit card donations are made via Pay Pal)

Ganske for Senate
1200 Grand Ave.
West Des Moines, IA 50265

North Carolina: Elizabeth Dole, former U.S. Transportation Secretary under Ronald Reagan, former Labor Secretary and former CEO of the American Red Cross, is running against Erskine Bowles, former Clinton chief of staff. This is Jesse Helms old seat, so we need to retain it.

Link to www.elizabethdole.org

Dole 2002 Committee
P.O. Box 2109
Salisbury, NC 28145-9982

29 posted on 09/18/2002 12:30:47 AM PDT by patriciaruth
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