The lowest-tech atom bomb

MSNBC ^ | 10/14/02 | By Richard A. Muller

[NY.SS-Bar9]

Saddam Hussein had us completely fooled, once. Prior to Desert Storm in 1991, we had monitored and embargoed his importation of high tech centrifuge and laser equipment that could be used to make highly-enriched uranium (HEU) material that — once you have it — makes building an atomic bomb easy.

Rest of story...

[kms61]

Do you even need computers? Since the work's already been done, would it be enough just to steal/buy the mathematical models themselves?

Art Bell (yeah, I know, tinfoil alert) had an author on last winter who was very pessimistic about containing WMD in the long term, say the next 50-100 years. When the technology gets so cheap and affordable that you can literally build a bomb in your garage, how do you stop the Unabombers/McVeighs/Islamic kooks of the world from blowing civilization, if not back to the stone age, at least back to the feudal age?

[kms61]

JMHO, but I think Iran may turn out to be less of a threat as long as we can contain them short term. I don't think the mullahs will be able to stop the democratic revolution that's already simmering there.

[Oztrich Boy]

they couldn't and weren't trying to make a Pu239 gun device;

It's true they couldn't make it, but early design work at Los Alamos until July 44 was on the Plutonium gun

Plutonium Complicates Early Gun Work

[taxcontrol]

Actually, they could in theory buy the plans. After they have a viable set of plans, making a bomb should'nt be too difficult - assuming the timing parts are available.

While I don't know Mr Bell, I tend to agree with his assertions. WMD will in short order be obtained by many different governments and NGO's shortly there after. I would estimate another 5 governments joining the nuclear club in the next 20 years (though most will be smart enough not to advertise the fact) and I would say you could start seeing a bomb in the hands of NGO's within 25 - 30 years. However, if there is an overthrow of a nuclear power, it could be within a month.

The principle problem for most bomb makers is how to obtain enough uranium and enrich it, without attracting the attention of authorities. We are not talking small quantities here. I have heard estimates that it takes a couple of tons of raw ore to make enough enriched uranium to make a bomb. Kinda hard to keep a pile of that size under a tarp.