Free Republic
Browse · Search
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Europe on the brink of collapse ^ | Sun 27 Oct 2002 | N/A

Posted on 10/30/2002 8:16:46 PM PST by TigerLikesRooster

Europe on the brink of collapse

The Euro-zone is in a spiral of self-destruction as its crisis-hit economy heads from bad to worse

BY ITS own hand the economic life is being squeezed from Europe.

Collapsing confidence, tumbling stock markets and a sickly currency take second place to a spectacular public row between the president of the European Commission and the European Central Bank on whether the central pillar of policy is "stupid" or "indispensable for economic and monetary union".

Even by the standards of the "fudge and mudge" political culture that has long prevailed in Europe, it is hard to believe it has sunk to this.

Pork-barrel spending or utterly inflexible central bank rules: one or the other of these roaring dinosaurs will have to give. But in this epic battle it is the economic future of Europe that is giving first.

While this battle rages, the Euro-zone economy is going from bad to worse. It was hardly surprising that many missed the devastating one-word summary of the German economy by the country’s equivalent of the CBI last week: "catastrophic".

From the bottom to the top, but especially at the top, Europe is in a deepening mess. The international economic downturn has contributed to continental woes. But that downturn is not the cause, or the proximate cause, of Europe’s stunning reversal of fortune.

The cause is a self-destruction wrought by a political elite that has wrapped itself in fantastical self-delusion about the superiority of its economic system, the coming ascendancy of the single currency over the dollar, and the tide of wealth and prosperity that would inevitably flow from the relentless pursuit of "ever closer union". Here, on an epic scale, has been a procession of naked emperors who cannot begin to grasp why the world has stopped applauding.

For the Euro-zone, the applause stopped long ago. In the cacophony that passes for policy coherence there has come an absurd but utterly predictable result: far from the euro providing greater stability and a platform for better performance as its apologists claimed, the economies inside the Euro-zone are now faring worse than those outside.

This year will be the third in succession that the economies of the EU 15 have in aggregate outperformed the Euro 12. For this year and next it looks set to be the case that Britain, in GDP growth terms, is better off out. Those five economic tests behind which the government has hidden should be stripped away to show a glaring, humbling truth: if it’s economic performance you want, you’re better off out.

Nothing has more exposed the myth of the superior continental economic model than the flight of capital out of the Euro-zone and the stock market collapses this year. They have been breathtaking in their severity. At one point this month the German stock market was showing a collapse of 70% from its peak, double the percentage fall in the Dow Jones. The full consequences of the destruction of savings on such a scale and at such a pace have only just begun to make themselves felt.

Barely a week now passes without another red pencil taken to forecasts for economic growth in the Euro-zone. Last Friday, it was the turn of the National Institute for Economic & Social Research. As if 1.4% growth last year was not slow enough, it now forecasts that the Euro-zone will only manage growth of 0.9% this year and 2.1% next.

As for Germany, which accounts for about a third of output in the zone, GDP will rise by only 0.4% this year, and by 1.7% next, a shadow of the subdued growth in America - the economy that Europe so despises. On Monday, the keenly awaited Ifo index of business confidence is set to show a further fall for the fifth month running. On top of slowing demand, German business now has to contend with a coalition that has proffered yet more of the disease as the cure: yet more tax.

It is not the world slowdown that has caused this performance collapse, but the interaction of entirely self-inflicted wounds: over-regulated labour markets, a relentless rise in the government share of the economy, a growing tax burden, regulation out of every orifice and a desperate rearguard action against all and every attempt to dismantle state aid and subsidies. The same clique that greeted the bursting of America’s new economy bubble as proof of the flawed Anglo-Saxon model is the same one that, now their own economy has fallen into a far deeper slowdown than that in the US, turns to blaming US policymakers for not doing enough to pull the rest of the world including the EU out of the mire. To listen to Europe’s political elite is to hear the pathetic cry of the bankrupt that someone else spent all the money. As for Germany, the powerhouse of the 1950s and 1960s has long given way to lethargy and laziness. Reds and Greens attack what is left of a once proud enterprise culture. They declaim their country in the Bundesrat like latter-day Tom Paines. But truly, it is they who pity the plumage and forget the dying bird.

Despite all this it has long been the belief of EU apologists in Britain that if only we engaged "at the centre of Europe" we would "win the argument" and slow the drive to ever closer union and ever greater centralism. But this is to ignore the fact that there are large sections of opinion in continental Europe that do not share the political and economic attitudes of the Anglo Saxon world one iota. Indeed, not even in the disintegration of the Growth and Stability Pact is there much cause for British reformists to cheer. It was Prodi no less, who repeated his call last week for "a single economic government for all countries that share the same money", with more power to the Commission to enforce a Stability Pact duly doctored to his liking.

This call was echoed by members of the EU’s latest triumph of hope over experience, the Convention on the Future of Europe, whose economic committee called for the introduction of qualified majority voting on tax harmonisation and for strengthened economic co-ordination between the member states.

As the economist Stephen Lewis eloquently argues: "In the circumstances it is questionable whether UK ambitions in the EU are realistic."

In any event, there is no guarantee, he adds, that what emerges from the current crippling stand-off between Prodi and a European Central Bank that seems bent on holding out against interest rate cuts until the incipient recession has turned into the full-blown type, will be a substantial improvement.

It is the basic principles on which this monetary union rests that are deeply flawed. No amount of dissemblage about five economic tests makes up for the failure to recognise and attack the profound structural and conceptual flaws that lie behind this currency union and the crisis that has developed within it, one not of performance merely, but of survival. Here was a construct that was never an end in itself but an instrument intended to drive ahead towards "ever closer union" and it is that drive, and the Bonapartian vanity behind it, that is leading Europe to ruin.

Some take comfort this weekend from the news that Peter Hain, the government’s "Mr Europe" has been moved to the Welsh Office. But the balance of influence in the Cabinet has moved if anything in favour of the pro-Euro camp. If that is good news, at least one does not need to look too far to see what bad news is like.

TOPICS: Business/Economy; Extended News; Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: bureaucracy; collapse; economy; euro; europe
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-4041-6061-69 next last

1 posted on 10/30/2002 8:16:46 PM PST by TigerLikesRooster
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: TigerLikesRooster



A resource for conservatives who want a Republican majority in the Senate

2 posted on 10/30/2002 8:18:24 PM PST by ffrancone
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: rohry; Wyatt's Torch; arete; meyer; DarkWaters; STONEWALLS; TigerLikesRooster; razorback-bert; ...
3 posted on 10/30/2002 8:19:21 PM PST by TigerLikesRooster
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: TigerLikesRooster
4 posted on 10/30/2002 8:34:47 PM PST by Tauzero
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: TigerLikesRooster
Is it wrong to feel a sense of cold justice that this is happening to the Germans and the French?
5 posted on 10/30/2002 8:42:39 PM PST by Angelus Errare
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Angelus Errare
Re #5

Unfortunately, their brand of leftist ideology has to fail unambigously so that mankind can leave it behind and move forward. The fall of communism was not enough, apparently. Leftism can be insidious even in its softer forms. That should be defeated as well. Hopefully, this will do that.

6 posted on 10/30/2002 8:56:30 PM PST by TigerLikesRooster
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: TigerLikesRooster
Our US economy is doing no better.
7 posted on 10/30/2002 9:00:12 PM PST by dennisw
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: TigerLikesRooster
Use France as a garage sale and move on!
8 posted on 10/30/2002 9:01:38 PM PST by A CA Guy
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Angelus Errare
It's not wrong for you to feel that way considering their attitude toward the US lately. But, consider this: If Europe is going into an economic tailspin, and the non-Western parts of the world have been in deep economic trouble for several years, that leaves us alone on the slippery edge of an economic cliff. It's pretty much inevitable that we will go down, too.
9 posted on 10/30/2002 9:02:12 PM PST by rimtop56
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: dennisw
We are doing about the best in the world now. Scary, isn't it. We still probably have a 2000 point correction to go through still.
10 posted on 10/30/2002 9:02:31 PM PST by A CA Guy
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: dennisw
It's getting much worse in Europe...
11 posted on 10/30/2002 9:05:52 PM PST by July 4th
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: TigerLikesRooster
Does this mean Easyjet has to cancel all those damn Airbusses?
12 posted on 10/30/2002 9:13:06 PM PST by Mensch
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: dennisw
I just received this from my financial guru:

1. During the first two quarters of the recovery from the 1990 Recession, the rate of economic growth was one- to two-percent (1% - 2%).

2. The rate of recovery during the first two quarters of this most recent recession has been three percent (3%).

Perspective: While this recession may have felt as tough as the 1990 Recession, it wasn't nearly as deep. In addition, the recovery rate has been two- to three-times stronger. Sometimes you don't believe things are getting any better because it doesn't feel as though that's what is really happening. Point in fact, many professionals I have spoken with continue to say that people may be surprised to find that the economy is stronger than they may believe.

13 posted on 10/30/2002 9:15:24 PM PST by Bernard Marx
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: TigerLikesRooster
We will wind up rescuing Europe from the clutches of the "Liberals" as we did from the clutches of the Nazis, but first we must rid America of them.
14 posted on 10/30/2002 9:16:47 PM PST by Savage Beast
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: TigerLikesRooster
While this battle rages, the Euro-zone economy is going from bad to worse.

Okay ---the Europeans' economy isn't doing well, ours isn't doing well, Mexico's isn't doing well......all this globalism was supposed to bring about a most wonderful economy for the whole world. Where is that happening?

15 posted on 10/30/2002 9:17:26 PM PST by FITZ
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: TigerLikesRooster
Anti-EU bump.
16 posted on 10/30/2002 9:20:45 PM PST by mrustow
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: rimtop56
You are so right, except that we won't fall on our own. The EU will grab on to our legs and pull us down with them. I can almost hear the screams for help now.... America!, America!, You have to help us..........
17 posted on 10/30/2002 9:21:08 PM PST by Patriot2000
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: Bernard Marx
I just received this from my financial guru:

I wouldn't pay any attention to those types because they can't tell you what our economy is based on any more. It's not based on manufacturing which is what made us the wealthiest country in the world at one time. Information technology has pretty much fizzled as a base. Until they can say exactly what drives our economy, it's not a good economy.

18 posted on 10/30/2002 9:21:37 PM PST by FITZ
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

Comment #19 Removed by Moderator

To: TigerLikesRooster
Is it any wonder why Europe is down hill.
This is old, but it still amazes me.

France Enforces 35-Hour Work Week

By Lisa Davidson, Bulletin News Correspondent

In an effort to cut France's unemployment rate, which hovered around 12.4
percent 18 months ago, the government decided to reduce the work week
nationwide to 35 hours from 39. This change, according to a study conducted by
the Bank of France, could create more than 700,000 jobs in three years. The
reality, though, is that motivated employees are denied the opportunity to work
more than 35 hours to finish important projects. And employers who allow
workers to put in overtime face heavy fines in court.

The mandatory 35-hour work week is not unreasonable, says Finance Minister
Dominique Strauss-Kahn.

"I trust what the economic institutes say," said Strauss-Kahn. "If they tell me that
there will be between 400,000 and 700,000 jobs created, I believe that is realistic."

An unnamed source close to top-ranking officials at the Bank of France said that
Strauss-Kahn's support did not come as a surprise.

"He is our puppet," said the unnamed source. "We keep proposing stranger and
stranger things, just to see if he will keep agreeing to them. When he agreed to
replace the multimillion franc automated ticket-taking machines in the Metro with
live workers to reduce joblessness, we knew he was our guy."

Employers in France are not optimistic about their ability to become competitive
under such constraints.

"What the hell are we supposed to do?" said Jean Huac, the owner of a
machine-parts manufacturing company in Nice. "I hire people because they're
competent. And then I have to kiss them goodbye after seven hours, and bring in
new people to take over. This is insane."

Marie-Louise Toulour, a worker in a munitions factory outside of Paris, is less
concerned about the limitation.

"Would I like to make overtime? No," she said. "I like to go home at the end of
my day. So we're not competitive with the Americans? Big deal," she said.

"The European Union will carry us," she added.

Site Design-- Copyright 1999
20 posted on 10/30/2002 9:45:25 PM PST by Prerunner
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-4041-6061-69 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794 is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson