Posted on 11/07/2002 5:07:28 AM PST by billorites
WOW! So, New Hampshire is changing, huh? Republicans and conservatives are losing steam. Independents and moderates are dominant. New Hampshire’s different now, right?
Yeah, right . . .
It did look that way when John McCain defeated George W. Bush in the 2000 Presidential primary, and when Jeanne Shaheen won three terms as governor over conservatives.
Well, so much for that idea. And so much for Shaheen and that whole “independent moderate” thing.
This GOP victory was so complete and so unexpected that it surprised Democrats, neutral political observers (including this one) and even some partisan Republicans, including a U.S. senator.
The most surprising race in New Hampshire was the biggest race. It wasn’t shocking that John E. Sununu was elected. But the margin was unexpected.
Given the expectations of a razor-close outcome, his 4 percent win seemed like a landslide as the votes were rolling in.
Lots has happened since 2000. Sept. 11, 2001, happened. Bush rose to the occasion and became very popular nationally — enormously so here.
New Hampshire voters helped give him the Republican control of Congress that he had requested.
Sununu now finds himself an example of a new, post-Sept. 11 era in this country — and of a return by New Hampshire to its conservative roots.
U.S. Sen. Judd Gregg, soon to be the state’s senior senator, said yesterday that the state has been — and continues to be — fiscally conservative and socially moderate, “almost libertarian” on those issues.
But even Gregg, while confident of a Sununu win, didn’t see the tidal wave coming and was taken by surprise.
READY TO GO. Sununu, still on cloud nine yesterday morning, said he expects his new GOP Senate majority to put the Department of Homeland Security, which had been stalled by soon-to-be Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle, on the front burner. He believes the Bush tax cuts passed last year will be made permanent fairly quickly. He expects action on Republican plans for a Medicare prescription drug benefit, for tort reform and for regulatory reform.
Sununu will get his first taste of what it’s like to be on the other side of the U.S. Capitol at an organizational meeting next Wednesday. He is interested in the Commerce, Foreign Relations and Armed Services committees.
Being part of a majority “is a great opportunity to help shape legislation,” he said, “and to have an impact and offer amendments. Being in the majority gives a member a little more latitude.”
THE OTHER WINNER. Though not on the ballot, Gregg was a big winner on Tuesday. He was honest enough to say yesterday he did not expect a GOP victory in Minnesota and, “I thought we would have our hands full to get the majority.”
Gregg has been in the majority, in the minority and suddenly finds himself in a position of power in the majority again.
“It certainly hasn’t sunk in yet,” Gregg said of the nationwide GOP steamroller. “People chose between the President and Tom Daschle.”
In New Hampshire, he said, “The entire Republican ticket also benefited from the fact that the Democratic ticket was overtly pro-tax . . . It proves once again that New Hampshire wants to remain a different place and keep our uniqueness. Our approach is to have an efficient government and keep it small while delivering quality services.
“It seems that every 10 or 12 years, the Democratic Party starts to move back to its roots, and when they moderate a bit, they can win.”
Gregg said he will return to a powerful post he held when the GOP last controlled the Senate — chairman of the Commerce, State and Justice Subcommittee of the Appropriations Committee. The panel oversees the budgets of those three departments and agencies such as the Federal Election Commission and the Federal Trade Commission. He also will be chairman of the Health, Education, Labor and Pension Committee.
Gregg said that because of a legal quirk, Sen.-elect Jim Talent of Missouri will take office next week. That will immediately bring the number of Senate Republicans to 50, with 48 Democrats and two independents.
One independent, James Jeffords of Vermont, will vote with the Democrats. The other, Dean Barkley of Minnesota, who was appointed to succeed the late Paul Wellstone temporarily, is a wild card, said Gregg.
Either way, with Vice President Dick Cheney ready to cast deciding votes, the GOP majority won’t have to wait until January.
Gregg said that will make for an active “lame-duck” session. He said the Senate will address homeland security and anti-terrorism insurance. Before Jan. 1, Gregg expects legislation on bankruptcy reform and energy policy. Confirmation votes are also expected on a host of Bush judicial nominees, who have been blocked for up to 18 months.
In January, making the tax cuts permanent and repealing the death tax will be top priorities, said Gregg.
STAYING PUT. Gregg is flattered by speculation that he’ll be tapped by Bush for a cabinet post or perhaps even the Supreme Court.
But “trying not to be egotistical,” the senator said, “I’ve drawn the winning straw here, to become chairman of one of the most influential committees and subcommittees in Congress and I’m looking forward to working with those committees . . . So I’m looking forward to doing this job for the foreseeable future.”
Gregg is up for reelection in 2004. Who knows what a second Bush administration may bring for him?
WORDS OF CAUTION. A Gregg epilogue. “Don’t think that we can have our way in the Senate,” he said of the GOP. He noted that 60 votes are still required to break filibusters.
“With a one-seat majority, we control the agenda and what comes to the floor, but unless we can work agreements, we can’t be successful,” he said. “It’s still going to have to be in a cooperative mode, and that’s good.”
WHERE WAS BOB? We don’t know. But Bob Smith spokesman Lisa Harrison said she believed the outgoing senator was not in New Hampshire yesterday and had voted by absentee ballot.
We asked what Smith thought of yesterday’s voting in New Hampshire and received the following statement about the national scene:
“While disappointed I will not be in the Senate in January to help President Bush’s agenda succeed, I am heartened by the knowledge that the Republican Party will once again be in the majority in both chambers.”
That’s it.
POST-MORTEMS. Look for lots of soul-searching in the New Hampshire Democratic Party in the coming weeks. A political autopsy of sorts.
For now, suffice to say that come January, the state party will choose a chairman, and Kathy Sullivan isn’t sure whether she’ll seek another term. She said she has several considerations, including family and her work as an attorney.
Fellow Manchester attorney Jim Normand appears headed toward a candidacy.
Sullivan says it’s time for her party to learn a hard lesson.
“If I ran again and were elected,” she said, “one of my goals would be to make very clear to Democrats and Democratic candidates that if you want to get elected in New Hampshire, you have to stop talking about an income tax. That’s something that our party has got to stop doing.”
Sullivan credited Mark Fernald “for running a race on an issue he believed in. But people just don’t want it. It’s not a question of trying to explain it more or make people understand,” she said. “They just don’t want it.”
Sullivan added, “That may not be a very popular position for me to take with some of our Democratic activists.” But, she said, it’s just the truth.
OVER EASY, PLEASE. The Status has egg on its face.
On Sunday, we predicted Shaheen would win by a point and there could be a recount. Sununu won by four points.
Payback began early yesterday morning, when the senator-elect himself walked into our almost-empty newsroom and taped something to our computer monitor’s screen. It was his photo, and these words: “Why? Why didn’t he listen to Tom Fahey? Oh the horror . . . the horror!”
State House Bureau Chief Fahey had not predicted a Senate winner. He wrote that impartial observers claiming to know what would happen were “nuts” and would be “lucky” if they got it right.
We had toyed with declaring it “too close to call.” But we’ve never ducked a major prediction, and we weren’t going to start. Sure, we missed the GOP boat (and it was a big boat). But, hey, we tried.
The Status also under-estimated the GOP in the state Senate, predicting 14 Republicans, while 18 were elected. We were right on the easy calls for governor and the U.S. House, but under-estimated the GOP votes. We did not pick the District 5 Executive Council race, which went to Republican incumbent David Wheeler.
Anyway, it was The Big One that counted, and we were plain wrong — so, pass the eggs and crow.
(John DiStaso is the senior political reporter of The Union Leader and New Hampshire Sunday News.)
“While disappointed I will not be in the Senate in January to help President Bush’s agenda succeed, I am heartened by the knowledge that the Republican Party will once again be in the majority in both chambers.”
That’s it.
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