REAGAN REDUX Replay of Reagan-Era Voting Patterns Is Not Good News for Democrats

LA TIMES ^ | 11/18/02 | Ronald Brownstein

[Liz]

Walter F. Mondale on the ballot. Bruce Springsteen on the record charts. And Republicans popping champagne on election night.

Almost everything about the 2002 election season felt retro -- like 1984, in fact. The Republican triumph this year didn't approach the scale of that year, when Ronald Reagan rolled to a 49-state victory over Mondale, then the Democratic presidential nominee. But the debate between the parties this fall -- and the ways that competition divided the electorate -- often seemed to reprise the early 1980s. Which is not good news for Democrats.

Understanding exactly what happened and why in this month's election is more difficult than usual because technical problems have prevented the release of the Voter News Service exit poll, the principal tool in recent years for assessing how the electorate aligned and which issues moved voters.

But revealing data are still available, both in the county-by-county results and in election day polls by Republican Bill McInturff and Democrat Stan Greenberg. And much of this evidence advances a trend that first emerged in the 1998 congressional election: the resurfacing of problems that plagued the Democrats through the 1980s, when Republicans dominated the White House and the national debate.

--SNIP--

Please click on surce link for rest of story (requires registration)

[Liz]

Any guesses who the Dem power elite will punish for the debacle? Starting with the Wellstone rally, the crooked Torricelli-Lautenberg shuffle, the soon-to-be Pelosi catastrophe.....there's so much blame to go around.

[duckman]

"...there's so much blame to go around."
You forgot to add, 'and not enough time.'

[Liz]

EXCERPT........in a final echo of Mondale in the 1980s, (in 2002) most Democrats tried to patch together majorities by wooing individual constituencies with targeted programs, such as prescription drug coverage for seniors. That was a recipe for disaster in the Reagan years. And based on this month's results, it's no more appetizing for voters today........

The Dems divide and conqueur tactic, the balkanization of America strategy - the sickening hyphenation of Americans - must be exposed as the destructive Dem ploy that it is.

[thingumbob]

the sickening hyphenation of Americans - must be exposed as the destructive Dem ploy that it is.

I think that 9-11-2001 went a long way toward doing just that. It seems that most of America has begun to turn away from the sort of thing. There is still work to be done though.

[AFPhys]

the sickening hyphenation of Americans - must be exposed as the destructive Dem ploy that it is.

If this election was not evidence that IS being exposed, nothing will be. My interpretation of everything I've seen is that a majority of voters are finally understanding this - maybe not on any intellectual level, but on a "gut reaction" level. The 9-11 aftermath, if nothing else, demonstrated that we are all in this together, and we must hang together for our own good. The Demodogs still don't recognize this, to their continuing detriment.

[jrlc]

And now we get Pooh-LEFTY pushed on us by the RATS as Minority Leader in the House -- here come the SanFrancisco liberals -- hope the RATS go back to focusing the debate on gay marriages and other pro-choice topics close to Pelosi's heart.

[goldstategop]

Ahhh... as much as it pains the liberal Ronald Brownstein to acknowledge it, "Morning is back in America again!!!" :)

[johnny7]

Well, they've already punished Gephardt, he was gently forced to give up his minority leadership role.

He'll be in the primary in 2004 but doesn't have a chance. Obscurity awaits him.

The Clintons, who failed miserably came out unscathed as did their waterboy McAuliffe.

It is now obvious that they run the party and control the money.

[Liz]

Even if Bella Pelosi sees the light and backs off, she has left an impressive paper trail that can be used against her time and time again.

Sure will be fun to expose this looney lefty.

[No Truce With Kings]

Any guesses who the Dem power elite will punish for the debacle?

Six phases of a Democrat campaign:

1. Exaltation
2. Confusion
3. Disillusionment
4. Search for the guilty
5. Punishment of the innocent
6. Rewards for the uninvolved

Well, lessee. Of the three Democrat leaders, McAwful and Dashole were the most culpable, and Gephardt was probably the one with a strategy that could have saved the Dems. Guess who's gone. And Pelosi wasn't involved in any of this. Guess who got rewarded.

Right on schedule.

Right on schedule.

[Liz]

The Clintons, who failed miserably came out unscathed as did their waterboy McAuliffe. It is now obvious that they run the party and control the money.

I am not entirely convinced of that. When the dim Dems finally wake up to the reality of their losses (they are still in denial), they will be forced to examine the cause of their downfall. The Unholy Three cannot escape most of the blame.

McAwful's decision to throw good money after bad into Floriduh (which benefited his father-in-law - wait till the dim Dems figure that one out), the impeached Clintons despicable behavior in and out of the WH...... their whooping it up at the Wellstone rally, the handling of the New York guv race, the losses they piled up in every state in which they campaigned.......will all become the Ghosts of Elections Past that carry heavy political weights.

[Liz]

Love, love, love it.......six phases are priceless.......

[Libloather]

Any guesses who the Dem power elite will punish...

I always enjoy it when the Libdem/Chicoms blame the voters. This past election, the RATS didn't have a message, couldn't get the message out, yet the voters were somehow -uh - stupid and just don't get it. If that could happen every election, I'll be one happy camper...

[goldstategop]

The Democrats are still in love with Bubba. That's why they're allowing themselves to be led by him right over the cliffs. Granted, he may be The Great Impeached and America's First Black President, but his criminal conduct and faking it as an African American have not deterred the party faithful from taking a hard look at who they sold their souls too. Au contraire. The Dems will go right on supporting Bubba and the Hildabeast right to the end for two reasons: they see Him And Her as victims and in their twisted minds, the Republicans are eeevil. In the end it will be their undoing.

[johnb838]

I remember back in '94 Clinton blamed the electorate first as well.

[DCPatriot]

Al Gore is making a BIG mistake in his delusional designs on the Presidency.

IMO, the reason the voters dissed the Democratic Party is because it was the their way of absolving themselves of guilt in not pressing for Clinton's removal after his Impeachment.

George Bush's honesty was like a slap in the face to all voters who were co-dependent for Clinton and his wife. The "slap" was like being awakened into reality.

Please Mr. Gore. Keep up the good fight and WIN your Party's nomination. I want to wrap up the ending on your fictional rendition of the Election of 2000. You will be another McGovern or Dukakis.

[ODDITHER]

I love watching the Democrats deconstruct. It is much like watching a Monty Python re-run and viewing it as a drama.

[hchutch]

Don't look at the flames on the wing!!

[Grampa Dave]

Apparently thanks to his masters, the Clintoons, your favorite McAwful will stay where he is thanks to his great victories in California.

I think that they will punish Al Gore for most of this year. Then, if it still looks like a cake walk for President Bush, they will reward the Goron with one other chance in 2004. After he loses, he will be banished to go live with MoldDale in MN and herd mosquitoes in the Summer time and keep MoldDale warm during the cold winters. His banishment to Mn will be like the old USSR sending their losers to Siberia.

To get a running mate for Goron in 2004, they will have to use the FBI files that the Hilldebeast still has to force some Rat to commit political suicide to run with the Goron.

Since no rat really believes in God, heaven and hell, this will be the Hell on Earth for whoever is forced to run as Goron's VP.

After what happened to Carnahan and Wellstone, both the Goron and his fellow loser will not fly during the campaign. They will ride donkeys from city to city. They know what happens to Rat candidates, who lose in the polls right before an election.

[Agamemnon]

The Dems divide and conqueur tactic, the balkanization of America strategy - the sickening hyphenation of Americans - must be exposed as the destructive Dem ploy that it is.

Dems divided themselves and they were conquered.

[TruthShallSetYouFree]

I remember back in '94 Clinton blamed the electorate first as well.

I'm blaming the electorate in my home state for voting for Lautenberg. I don't know who else to blame. Forrester was so far ahead of the crooked Torch that the dems, illegally, used the old fool as a pinch hitter. And, the geniuses in NJ, unperturbed by the stench of the chicanery, fall all over themselves to push the button next to the letter "D." Forrester's message was exactly the same one the republicans used all over the country (support for Bush, strongly against terrorism and Iraq) and the lefty loonies here voted in favor of what--a few bucks off on prescription drugs or fear that a pregnant woman's right to murder her baby would be abridged? I'm thinking about moving to another state, where republicans actually have a chance.

[twigs]

Understanding exactly what happened and why in this month's election is more difficult than usual because technical problems have prevented the release of the Voter News Service exit poll

So is this the reason why VNS refused to play on election day? They did not want to release data that would allow the victors to analyze why they were victorous? (As though the Repubs don't know?)

[twigs]

I have to agree with your assessment of the NJ electorate. We live just across the river and watched the events there with utter amazement. My husband is a democrat and really doesn't like what Forrester stood for. But he said a number of times that he would have voted for him simply because the Democratic party assumed that he was stupid enough to fall for their trick.

[Liz]

Many of the conservative cognescenti suspected a much on election night.

[cake_crumb]

"The Dems divide and conqueur tactic, the balkanization of America strategy - the sickening hyphenation of Americans - must be exposed as the destructive Dem ploy that it is."

...While at the same time blathering on to the public about how the "United States must present a united front" to the world. 99 percent of the voters know just how important it is to unite. They've been so obvious ever since President Bush was inaugurated that the public couldn't HELP but notice that Democrats speak with forked tongues.

LOL...you know, Jimmy "The Peanut Man" Carter being awarded a Nobel Prize for "Peace" on order to send "a kick in the leg to the current administration" couldn't have helped Democrats at all. They thought it would. That's why they chose Mondale. They thought he was a shoo-in because his ex-boss got an award and some moron in the Netherlands tried to mess in American politics. That stuff doesn't go over any more.

[Huck]

? I'm thinking about moving to another state, where republicans actually have a chance.

I understand your frustration. But look on the bright side. In the last election, over 900,000 NJers voted for Doug Forrester. Only about 4 victorious GOP Senators received as many votes. (see http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2002/pages/senate/index.html)

I realize that only works out to 44%, but it still represents a lot of good, sensible people. And hopefully these people will defend their way of life and continue to fight for good government, as Doug Forrester and his supporters did. I hope the good people of NJ do not retreat or surrender.

Another bit of the bright side is what happened to Torricelli. The NJ electorate rejected him. Even though we ended up with Lautenberg, it is heartening that NJers sent the Torch packing. This was a positive step.

We had a very decent man as our candidate. We can be proud of him. He beat one opponent, but had too much to overcome to beat a second. I hope he runs again. I hope you will still be here to help.

[Mudboy Slim]

"The Dems divide and conqueur tactic, the balkanization of America strategy - the sickening hyphenation of Americans - must be exposed as the destructive Dem ploy that it is."

It's happening slowly, IMHO, but the more folks become exposed to the Truth, the more ridiculous the RATS look to them. I expect it's entirely conceivable that the RATS will become a minority party in two-six years and either the Green Party or the libertarians or the Constitution Party will move up to challenge the RINOs if we don't move quickly enuff to decentralize Power from the Federal Leviathan and to the States, Localities, and Individuals.

FReegards...MUD

[cake_crumb]

"The Dems will go right on supporting Bubba and the Hildabeast right to the end for two reasons: they see Him And Her as victims and in their twisted minds, the Republicans are eeevil."

In addition, they've all been working very hard for years to raise Bubba and Hitlery up as the rulers of the world. It must be hard for them to see so much hard work going down the tubes.

[elenchus]

If the conservative agenda on taxes and social security is to have a chance of succeeding and if conservative judges are to gain Senate approval, we must preserve a Republican Senate--which is in greater jeopardy than many realize.

For those who understand why the Louisiana election is crucial to retaining the Senate in the face of possible Republican defections by Chafee and McCain, please see the article just posted on:

"How Suzanne Terrell can Defeat Mary Landrieu"

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/791117/posts

If you need convincing, also see the post:

Columnist Broder Sees Potential Party Switches by Senators McCain and Chaffee

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/791096/posts

[speedy]

Cracking up at your election analysis -- herding mosquitoes sounds like just the thing for the delusional Gore. They're coming to take me away ha-ha. Thanks for the laugh.

[TruthShallSetYouFree]

I hope you will still be here to help.

I'm not going anywhere for a while. I'm in my fifties and Jewish law (according to Seinfeld) dictates you have to move to Florida when you're in your sixties, so I still have some time left here.

Here is a letter to the editor in today's Star-Ledger, NJ's left-wing rag, that shows what we are up against:

"Perhaps Paul Mulshine ('Republicans let a losing issue beat them again,' Nov.7) would consider the right to privacy a more relevant issue for Republicans if the debate centered on vasectomies for sexually active males.

New Jersey is a pro-choice state. Our electorate believes the person to make the decision about becoming a parent is the pregnant woman, as did The Supreme Court in Roe vs. Wade. This decision does not force anyone to have an abortion. Those with other opinions don't have the right to force others to adhere to those beliefs.

Doug Forrester presented himself as pro-choice even though he would force minors to have children and prevent women who needed late term abortions to risk their health and/or fertility. One cannot be pro-choice if one believes that government has the right to infringe on a woman's right to decide on her pregnancy.

The abortion issue may be the wrong benchmark to use for determining a candidate's politics. However, it is a losing strategy to force women to be barefoot and pregnant in New Jersey, and it was deifinitely an issue in the Senate race.

--Maggie Constan, Montclair
The writer is public affairs director for Planned Parenthood of Metropolitan New Jersey."

To summarize, the writer believes that unless one goes along with allowing twelve-year olds to have abortions without telling their parents and with sticking a pair of scissors into the skull of an unwanted baby emerging from the birth canal, one can't be pro-choice and, since NJ is a pro-choice state, one can't win a state-wide election. The bad news is, so far she is correct. Except for RINO's like Christie Whitman, Republicans don't stand a chance here. Bret Schundler (who, admittedly, was not-supported by the national Republican party) put forth a true conservative message in his gubernatorial effort in 2001 against the seedy McGreevey. Bret lost by a mile.

[cake_crumb]

"This decision does not force anyone to have an abortion. Those with other opinions don't have the right to force others to adhere to those beliefs."

Then why are these goofballs constantly so up in OUR faces about it?? Every day on the news it's "pro-choice" this, and "pro-choice" that...while the media refuses to allow anyone to stand up for the rights of the CHILDREN being murdered.

Who's pushing whom here??

[DallasMike]

I'm thinking about moving to another state, where republicans actually have a chance.

Texas!

[Liz]

Penetrating the feebleness of the average liberal mindset is a challenge.

[TruthShallSetYouFree]

The left has managed, with the help of an ever-compliant media, to frame the abortion debate in terms of "a woman's right to choose" vs. "the right of the government to impose its will on helpless women." As you correctly pointed out, the debate should be about "a woman's right to choose" vs. "a baby's right to live."

[johnny7]

... I'm in my fifties and Jewish law (according to Seinfeld) dictates you have to move to Florida when you're in your sixties,

Good one. My parents are more like Costanza's.

Different tribe but just as crazy. HA!

NJ is a sewage pit. After a shower, the streets stink... how odd.

The people in NJ consider a public park or a highway rest-stop as the “country”.

[mhg1000]

I share your frustration as a conservative NJ resident surrounded by morons. As a Jewish conservative, I am particularly appalled that so many of my brethren drink the democratic Kool-Aid with such abandon. While I loathe the lefty Star Ledger, their token conservative columnist, Paul Mulshine, makes some great points about how we Republicans can win back New Jersey. Ever rising suburban property taxes, ridiculous levels of funding for the urban "Abbott" districts (and guess where all those democratic votes come from) which drain the suburbs, overbuilding sprawl, an activist Supreme court, etc. We can come back. We have the issues. Heck, even New York has a Republican governer (although he is a RINO).

[TruthShallSetYouFree]

Freeper greetings from the other conservative Jew living in NJ. (No more calls, please. I know there are more of us out there.) Still, not too many names fall inside all three circles of that Venn Diagram.

[My2Cents]

Has anyone seen any polls pitting Gore against Bush? There's a potential here for a 50-state blow-out by Bush (at least at this point). Bush even leads in California.

[Huck]

That letter is propaganda by a special interest group that needs abortions to exist. I'd like to see what NJ voters think on the question of parental notification. I agree that NJ is a pro-choice state, but I believe there is room for improvement on partial birth and notification. What the left does is paint someone as a stealth pro-life candidate if they take sensible positions on these issues where the left is vulnerable. What NJ needs, IMHO, is a candidate who is clearly pro-choice, with no old opinion columns out there to contradict, who nevertheless is on the right side of notification and partial birth. We can win those.

[Huck]

NJ is a sewage pit.

You don't know what you are talking about. NJ has some rough urban/industrial areas, but it has many beautiful areas, including some of the most expensive and sought after real estate in the nation. Ask Steve Forbes if he lives in a sewer pit.

[deport]

The following gets very little attention in the media but really speaks to the mood of the populace at this point... It is quite an event to accomplish what occurred on the state levels around the country...... Not only did the Republicans gain some 200 state legislative seats they also didn't lose the historical average of 350 seats. So the 200 gain can be looked at as a 550 plus for the Republicans.

Click

Republicans matched their gains in Congress with a historic showing Tuesday in the nation's statehouses, capturing more state legislative seats than Democrats did for the first time in half a century.

The GOP had a net gain of about 200 legislative seats, defying historic trends in which the president's party has lost an average of 350 seats in every midterm election cycle since 1938.

When everyone is sworn in, Republicans will hold more than half the nation's 7,382 state legislative seats for the first time since 1952. And their gains catapulted the party into control of the House or Senate in five states, including Arizona, Colorado, Missouri, Texas and Wisconsin.

The Republicans will now control both houses of the state legislatures in 21 states up from 17.....

[dirtboy]

Well, they've already punished Gephardt, he was gently forced to give up his minority leadership role.

Even though he was about the only Dem leader questioning the Dem strategy for the 2002 elections. Search for the guilty. Punishment for the innocent. Praise for the non-participants (Hillary).

[cake_crumb]

"As you correctly pointed out, the debate should be about 'a woman's right to choose' vs. 'a baby's right to live.' "

Right on!

[cake_crumb]

Gotta run. I'll try to check in later. Have a good day, and don't give up.

[ampat]

They have no strategery.

[Libloather]

I remember back in '94 Clinton blamed the electorate first as well.

I believe that was just prior to the "Era of Big Gubmint is over" speech at the State of the Union show.

Ah, such fond memories...