Bayh mulling run for IN Governor in 04 (Possible Senate Pickup Alert

Washington Post ^ | 12/15/02 | Brian Faler

[frmrda]

Bayh, a two-term Indiana governor before coming to Congress, said last week that, while it is "unlikely" he will join the 2004 gubernatorial race, he is entertaining suggestions that he do so. "Out of respect to my friends and supporters, I will listen to what they have to say," he said in a statement.

Bayh is widely believed to have at least vague presidential aspirations -- and he knows that precious few senators make it directly to the White House. Complicating his decision is the fear among Democrats that they would have trouble keeping his Senate seat if he steps down.

The gubernatorial picture is muddled because the presumed Democratic front-runner, Lt. Gov. Joe Kernan, recently announced that he won't run. Gov. Frank L. O'Bannon (D) is barred from seeking a third term. On the Republican side, some are urging White House budget director Mitchell E. Daniels Jr. to run.

For now, Bayh's comments have essentially frozen the race -- at least for the Democrats. Several are said to be eyeing the contest, including former Democratic National Committee chairman Joe Andrew. But no one is expected to make an announcement before Bayh does.

A spokesman for the senator said he will announce his decision after the holidays.

[frmrda]

Smart move for Bayh. He'd make an attractive Dem candidate and the trend is that Governors, not Senators, win the WH. Also, there is little chance he'd ever be in a majority leadership position in the Senate till its his turn to run in 08.

The good news for us is that it's a good chance we could pick up this seat in 04.

[PianoMan]

it's a good chance we could pick up this seat in 04

Big time. Indiana is historically quite Republican IIRC. Hoosiers know something their neighbors to the North and NW need to learn.

[ambrose]

What about bringing Danny Quayle back out of mothballs?

[Fish out of Water]

ping

[Paleo Conservative]

and the trend is that Governors, not Senators, win the WH.

There has never been any trend for sitting senators winning the White House. Only two sitting senators have ever been elected president, Warren G. Harding in 1920 and John F. Kennedy in 1960. The only trend among senators is to run for president and lose or get a vice presidential nomination.

[gop_gene]

The good news for us is that it's a good chance we could pick up this seat in 04.

Yup, that's why I wouldn't be surprised if the dems keep him under lock and key before they'd let him go.

[Dan from Michigan]

I'd absolutely love to see John Hostettler go for Bayh's spot.

[Viva Le Dissention]

I totally disagree; this is an extraordinarily dumb move for Bayh, which is why I think he'll be happy to let John Gregg run for Gov, especially when Gregg has an excellent chance of winning.

It's a bad move for a few reasons:

--Whether it is or not, it'll be viewed as a demotion, especially given that he's already served 8 years as Indiana governor. Some say, myself included, that he was unconstitutionally elected, not that we're still bitter about it, but that's beside the point.

--Bayh has had a really hard time in Washington with this triangulation between Liberal, Moderate, and Conservative. The guy has to stay conservative enough to keep the voters in Indiana happy, but that just doesn't sit well with the party elite; he's got to move left in Washington. He hasn't been able to balance these forces very well at all, and he's certainly not the Favorite Son of the Ds like he was when he was elected to the Senate 4 years ago. This is evidenced especially well in that he was passed over for the Vice-Presidential nomination with Gore, most probably due to his position on abortion, which he is, more or less, pro-life. In one of those quirks of fate, it might have been Gore's decision not to choose Bayh that cost him the election. All that said, Bayh certainly hasn't won him any friends in Washington since 2000, and he's not going to do so as Governor in Indiana.

--But all that aside, and let's assume for a moment that Bayh throws his hat into the ring. I don't think that Mitch Daniels is going to run from the R side. I think Luke Kenley or Murrary Clark is a more likely candidate, and I recently heard that David McIntosh was up for another beating and has also announced his candidacy. There's even a rumor that Dan Coats is going to come back for a run at the office, but after what he did four years ago, who needs him, really?

Whoever the opponent is, I think the most likely strategy will be to run hard Right and attempt to pin down Bayh on issues like abortion and gun control and gay rights and that kind of stuff. Bayh will have to choose between going right and winning the election or staying left and still having a sliver of an opportunity to be elected for something on a national level, but his chances for that are fading faster than the Red Sox in a pennant race.

In the end, I don't think the Party will ask Bayh to run anyway. Gregg is a better candidate, assuming they can convince him that Gov is better than the 8th district Congressional seat that he's been eyeing for the past few years.

Besides, I think Bayh will also have his own difficulties in winning his Senate seat, assuming the Rs put up a decent candidate, unlike the first election against Bayh.

[Viva Le Dissention]

Dan Quayle had his chance in 1996, but he pussed out, and that was certainly his only chance to make a legit run at the Presidency, like he has said that he always wanted to.

Anyhow, Quayle bailed in 96, and people around here still remember that. I like the guy, but he's in Arizona now and good riddance. As far as I'm concerned, he falls in the same category as Dan Coats; see my earlier post.

[fieldmarshaldj]

I have it on good authority that Bayh will NEVER get the Democrat nod for President. Many of the rank and file consider him to be hardly much better than a conservative Republican and with the party going Pelosi way, Bayh ain't in that wing... If Bayh runs for Governor, it may prove he's not much interested in staying in a Senate minority. Perilous for him, though, is that the Democrats are not well-regarded in Indiana with respect to a 14-year hold on the Governorship (the longest they've held it since 1847-61), and with Bayh having to give up the Senate seat, we might see a dual pick-up of both offices. Joe Kernan was smart not to run and have his butt handed to him by (probably) David McIntosh in '04, and the latter will probably defeat Bayh.

[LdSentinal]

But all that aside, and let's assume for a moment that Bayh throws his hat into the ring. I don't think that Mitch Daniels is going to run from the R side. I think Luke Kenley or Murrary Clark is a more likely candidate, and I recently heard that David McIntosh was up for another beating and has also announced his candidacy. There's even a rumor that Dan Coats is going to come back for a run at the office, but after what he did four years ago, who needs him, really?

McIntosh has been running for governor ever since he lost in 2000. With Lt. Governor Kernan stepping aside, his campaign got a boost. I think that if Daniels or Coats do not enter the primary, it's McIntosh's nomination to lose

[LdSentinal]

The best thing about the elections in Indiana in 2004 is that the state continues to trend Republican. The exit polls of 2000 showed that Bush won the 18-30 voting group by 25%+ over Gore.

[LdSentinal]

What about bringing Danny Quayle back out of mothballs?

It's an option, but I think the Republicans should go for a fresh face. There are plenty of viable candidates for the Republicans on the congressional level.

[Viva Le Dissention]

I'm pleased to see how optimistic you are with the Republican Party in Indiana, but I'm certainly not in the same boast as you in that regard.

I'll tell you the problem with the Indiana Republicans, and I've been saying this for about 5 years now, and the smart ones in this state have been saying it for about 10: they've got nobody on the bench.

Republicans have had a strangle hold on Indiana for nearly forever. They have been content with the old ways and new blood and new ideas are discouraged and ridiculed within the Party. Anyone with ideas for change are driven out.

I've seen it over and over, like with Marvin Scott 2 years ago against Julia Carson and the Republicans left him hanging out to dry, when he was the best candidate they've ever had (and probably ever will have) to beat her for that district. They were perfectly willing to let their stubbornness cost them a Congressional seat against a woman who has been the thorn in the side of Indiana Republicans ever since she was elected.

But who do the Rs have, for anything? They are having to drag out old tired names like McIntosh and Coats for Governor? McIntosh got beat double digits by O'Bannon last election (in one of the worst run campaigns I've seen since, oh, Sue Ann Gilroy ran for Mayor in 99), and he is the hero of the party? The best young name in the Republican party is Murray Clark, and he's going to fall on his sword if he runs for Governor, which ain't going to be doing him or the party any good.

The Rs don't have anyone for Mayor, and the election is less than 11 months away! Brose McVeigh is the best candidate I've heard, and he's coming fresh off a beating in his Congressional election. Yeah, what a candidate!

The Rs really screwed the pooch the past 15 years in Indiana, and they are reaping what they've sowed. The run tired candidates with god-awful campaigns and they lose. Big. Unless there is a serious shakeup, expect it to continue.

[Viva Le Dissention]

An aside: if Gregg runs, he'll smoke McIntosh.

Don't forget, Kernan has $3 million in the bank right now that goes to the lucky winner of the Democratic shakeout. $3 million buys a whole lot of TV time.

[Viva Le Dissention]

Ok, last post:

Even under the "Bayh rule," Quayle is still probably constitutionally ineligible to run for Governor.

[hoosierpearl]

I agree with your comments about Indiana. You are correct, but
why did they ever elect another Bayh to anything after the negative experience with the first one?

Hoosiers have weaknesses and liberals, hopefully not too many. I hope he doesn't get elected for even a dogcatcher. Little Evan supported X42 in the impeachment.

[Torie]

Just why anyone would want to switch from the Senate to a Statehouse, when the states are bankrupt, and job one is just wielding the ax, baffles me, particularly if it is a Democrat. But Bayh isn't ever going to have much influence in the Senate. He has to be too moderate to survive, and he certainly has no hope of securing the Dem nomination for president, not in 2004 or thereafter, except if the VP slot is handed to him.

[Torie]

Who is Gregg, and who are you by the way? Just curious.

[Torie]

Hostettler voted against the Iraq resolution. He's ideosyncratic. He isn't going anywhere. In fact, I suspect he is one of the most vulnerable Pubbies in 2004, and may well lose is House seat.