Bush's Stumble: The So San Affair ( Korean Scuds to Yemen

NewYorkTImes ^ | 12-19.2002 | WILLIAM SAFIRE

[swarthyguy]

The Senate Foreign Relations Committee, under its new chairman, Richard Lugar, should make its first order of business an inquiry into President Bush's maladroit and shortsighted decision-making in the So San affair.

Our National Security Agency, to its credit, spotted the movement of 15 Scud missiles and 85 drums of chemicals from a factory in North Korea to its secret loading aboard the freighter So San, and tracked the unflagged ship around the world to the Arabian Sea.

The C.I.A. was unable to determine the customer of these offensive weapons, unreliable in military combat but useful in striking terror into cities. State and Defense, worried that the ultimate customer might be Iraq, enlisted the Spanish Navy in stopping and boarding the vessel.

Apparently nobody thought the crisis through enough to ask: What do we do when we find the missiles? What if they are destined for an ally in the war on Al Qaeda like Egypt or Yemen or Saudi Arabia? What's our policy on the movement of terror weapons into a tinderbox?

Then came Saleh into our alley. The dictator of Yemen, Ali Abdullah Saleh (pronounced sally), claimed the destructive cargo, for which I am told he had paid North Korea $41 million.

U.S. officials were thunderstruck. Had Saleh not solemnly assured us 18 months ago, when we purchased his support in the war on terror, that he would no longer buy Scuds from North Korea? His disputes with the Saudis and Eritreans were long since resolved; the only logical explanation was that he planned to re-sell the secret shipment at a whopping profit to a nation or group that did not wish us well.

The Yemeni insisted he had bought the missiles years before he made his promise to us and just never got around to telling us about it. Nobody believed that, but Saleh lets us kill Al Qaeda leaders on his territory, and our knowledge of this shipment means he won't be able to re-sell it easily.

So President Bush decided to sacrifice the principle of the interdiction of terror weaponry entering a war zone on the altar of practicality. Instead of suggesting a fair compromise — "We'll reimburse you for your $41 million purchase, and we'll impound the cargo" — he chose to appease an unreliable ally and turned the 15 missiles, with the unidentified chemicals, over to the man who had made the U.S. look foolish.

Because the news of our turnover broke before we had alerted Madrid, we humiliated a real ally, Spain, which — at our request — had put its sailors' lives at risk by firing across the bow of a hostile vessel and boarding it. Spain has been a stalwart European supporter against Saddam, and is almost alone with us in urging Turkey's admission to the European Union. Our So San signal to eight other U.S. allies patrolling waters against Al Qaeda in the region: Go out on a limb for America, then watch us saw the limb off behind you.

Meanwhile, the interdiction of this unflagged ship on the high seas was seized upon as an insult by the North Koreans. Pyongyang trumpeted plans to start up plutonium production, which could be seen as a provocative use of Saleh's fungible $41 million.

The Bush administration's embarrassment at this irate reaction to its high-seas flip-flop was heightened by former President Bill Clinton. He struck a fierce pose in Rotterdam: "We actually drew up plans to attack North Korea and destroy their reactors," the retroactive hawk told a security forum, "and we told them we would attack unless they ended their nuclear program." (Talk about secrecy: Who knew, in 1994, that those cowboys in the Clinton White House were threatening preventive war?)

The So San affair, still shrouded in diplomatic secrecy, does not show the vaunted Bush national security team at its best. With plenty of time provided by satellite intelligence, Bush did not formulate plans to deal with operational contingencies; humiliated by a Yemeni double-crosser, the president had the White House spokesman retreat into pettifoggery to explain away a policy flinch on the spread of terror's weaponry.

Yes, we need unstable Yemen's help at the moment. But President Bush is duty bound to drive home the message to our least savory "partners" that they need America more.

[defenderSD]

Safire needs to chill out and take a look at the world map. There are no likely terror targets that could be reached by a Scud missile fired from Yemen. If we stop Yemen from reselling the missiles, then there's no harm in letting them keep the Scuds. Safire sounds like another frustrated armchair President who's never done much in his life except write about other people's actions and decisions. What happens when people write for the NY Times? Do they lose some of their IQ? There's never perfect intelligence about the secret weapons trade. Spain was not "humiliated" and I'm sure the Spanish leaders were told that we didn't know who was the intended recipient of these missiles. Neither would I call this a high-risk mission for the Spanish Navy. A group of Korean merchant sailors is not exactly a tough group to intercept on the high seas. Safire, go have another brandy and eggnog and return to your armchair.

[swarthyguy]

Djibouti and the entrance to the Red Sea?

[america-rules]

This was an excerise to show the North Koreans that we are watching them and know what they're doing and nothing more.

[thatdewd]

When did Pravda buy the NYT? Once it was verified the missiles belonged to an ally, what other course of action was there? The Yemeni guvment is currently cooperating in our war on terror. There are al-Qaeda in their country and they are letting us blast them (remember the predator?). They are letting us use their soil for bases and training. They are cooperating more than freakin' France or Germany. Seizing our (current) ally's rockets could have cost us some critically located soil to operate from. I saw the intercept and search as a strong message to North Korea that "we are watching you" (they took it that way too). The NYT will call the yemenite leader a dictator, but what do they call Castro? The US media has hit absolute bottom lately. Listening to these guys, movie stars, and the dems, I can only say one thing: McCarthy was right...

[First Amendment]

What was in the barrels of chemicals? I keep reading every article I see about this and never heard.... Anyone hear what was in them?
Shampoo?
Vanilla?
Eggnog?
Listerine?
Spring water?
Something Bad?

[defenderSD]

As far as I know, Djibouti is in Somalia (or very close to it...my map is 25 years old.) I don't think Yemen wants to terrorize Somalia, and Scuds are so inaccurate, they can't really fire them at ships in the Red Sea. I think Safire is just buzzed on brandy.

[defenderSD]

"This was an excerise to show the North Koreans that we are watching them and know what they're doing and nothing more."

I agree, and I think we also wanted to find out who is buying Scuds from North Korea. Why is that so difficult for Safire to figure out?

[swarthyguy]

I think we took something off and let the missiles and 'normal' warheads on their way. What it was, your guess is as good as mine.

[bybybill]

Does anybody think that these missiles can fly? We had acess to all of them, me thinks some of them might have a broken part.

[American in Israel]

Or perhaps a small piece of radioactive material inserted. All the better to track you with...

[Stavka2]

Incoming traffic through the straight of Harmuz...say sink a transport tanker or two and block up the narrow sea lane.

[Stavka2]

And the N. Koreans really look like they care. They have nukes, missile delivery systems, chemicals and biologicals. They aren't quivering in their shoes. And that will be the message to all small countries who don't want an Iraqi fate...get nukes and get them fast.

[patriciaruth]

You definitely have some good points to make.

In war, there is always risk and hopefully risk assessment.

What contingency plan would you have pushed in the event the missiles were bound for a temporary ally? (I assume you agree with tracking the ship and boarding it once it reached the war zone.)

[Ben Ficklin]

The key phrase in this article doesn't appear until the second from last paragraph:

"The So San affair, shrouded in diplomatic secrecy....."

Safire's first paragraph of this article should have contained that phrase along with the admission that, because of the diplomatic secrecy, anything he chose to write would be based on being uninformed and consequently would be considered speculative.

[Dubya_gal]

FYI: Djbouti is not a city in Somalia, it is a country that is next to Somalia. Note how close it is to Yemen. I don't know if they have any conflicts, though.


Picture copied from here

[aspiring.hillbilly]

As munitions go,,,scuds are elderly garbage,,,not accurate and short range... So if the yemmens want to blow money to N korea,,,i says go ahead...

[AmericanInTokyo]

Shake your Djibouti!

[TigersEye]

What if they are destined for an ally in the war on Al Qaeda like Egypt or Yemen or Saudi Arabia?

Allies? Oh, OK.

What if smartass eastcoast columnists stopped knocking efforts to protect this nation?

[defenderSD]

I never djbouted for a minute that someone at FR would set me straight on the location of Djbouti.

[carl in alaska]

Nothing worse than elitist east coast columnists writing editorials while buzzed up on the holiday eggnog. Who really cares what Safire thinks anyway?

[swarthyguy]

IN Desert Storm, the biggest casualty hit for the US was a Scud crashing into a barracks.

[swarthyguy]

IN Desert Storm, the biggest casualty hit for the US was a Scud crashing into a barracks.

[swarthyguy]

US troops are stations in Djibouti.

[swarthyguy]

stations = stationed.

[TigersEye]

Who really cares what Safire thinks anyway?

I won't be voting to put him in charge of national security anytime soon, lol!

[Magoo]

I think we also wanted to find out who is buying Scuds from North Korea. Why is that so difficult for Safire to figure out?

This statement is the one that bothers me. We simply could have followed the ship to port to learn a destination, but did we learn the true recipient? We could have easily spooked that out over time without the ship side intervention.

I do agree that sending Pyongyang a message was perhaps the key element of this exercise, but to many Americans the action looked like a SNAFU. I wonder how this exercise was portrayed in the Spanish media.

[Stavka2]

If dealing with certain weapon systems such as these, which are offensive and capable of WMD use, confiscate, destroy and recompensate the market value....sorry no toys, but here's your money. 41 million is chump change compared to what they might be able to do. Even an air burst of chemicals over the sea lanes, crowded with ships would be devestating.

[patriciaruth]

As we are all aware, Debra is not reliable, but does provide food for thought. The alleged debate in the White House over how to respond to this ultimatum from North Korea ended with the President deciding to deal with Iraq first before facing off with North Korea.

DEBKA-Net-Weekly's Washington and Korean Peninsula sources report: Tuesday, December 9, the seized Singapore-registered So San was on course for the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia - after being intercepted in the Arabian Sea before it reached Yemen with a cargo of 15 North Korean Scud missiles - when Pyongyang slapped down an ultimatum to Washington: Release the freighter and cargo or else North Korea will invade South Korea, a threat which opened up the prospect of nuclear war. The ultimatum was conveyed through "open intelligence channels" between the two countries. It carried no deadline. Therefore, no ticking clock needed dismantling by the Bush administration. On Wednesday, December 11, after Yemen undertook to discontinue its ballistic missile purchases from Pyongyang, Bush, as US commander-in-chief, signed a directive ordering the US Navy to release the vessel and its cargo to the Yemen authorities.

[carl in alaska]

While you will find the true destination of the ship by following it to port, the best way to find the ultimate destination of the missiles was to intercept the ship on the high seas. Then monitor communications throughout the Middle East and find out who throws a "temper tantrum" about possibly losing his missiles. (Never underestimate Wily W.)

[aspiring.hillbilly]

True but it was a "lucky for the bad guys" shot that they could not duplicate at will... V1's and V2's raining down on Britian in WWII causes a lot of casualities by virtue of an flying explosive warhead will hit something of value every now and again..