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Heads up on Gold
Kitco live gold ^

Posted on 02/03/2003 5:10:28 PM PST by Cicero

Just a heads up that gold appears to be breaking through another resistance level at 370 in early trading in Asia. Platinum has also broken above a 5-year resistance level. Here's the chart. Since it's a live chart, I have no idea whether it will stay at these levels or not, but it seems worth a heads-up, at any rate. Make of it what you will:



TOPICS: Business/Economy; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: dollar; gold; platinum; preciousmetals; pumpndump
The Iraq war is what the media are talking about in connection with gold's recent rises, but the basic cause of gold's breaking through a succession of strong resistance levels, IMHO, is a sick stock market and a falling dollar.
1 posted on 02/03/2003 5:10:29 PM PST by Cicero
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To: Cicero
Among other things expect inflation to increase.
2 posted on 02/03/2003 5:12:07 PM PST by xzins (Babylon - You have been weighed in the balance and been found wanting.)
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To: Cicero
Here's my problem with gold. The time to sell it is exactly the time when you want it in your portfolio.
3 posted on 02/03/2003 5:12:44 PM PST by Dog Gone
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To: arete; AdamSelene235; antaresequity; B4Ranch; imawit; rohry
Minor ping for the next step in the gold bull run.
4 posted on 02/03/2003 5:13:28 PM PST by steveegg (Minor in that I don't have the Wrapup ping list)
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To: Dog Gone
If I knew when to buy and when to sell . . . I could pay off some of my bills. In any case, I don't think it's a very good time to be in the general stock market.
5 posted on 02/03/2003 5:14:26 PM PST by Cicero
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To: Cicero
If it weren't for gold mining stocks, my stock portfolio would be in the red. I guess a little gold insurance is a good thing.
6 posted on 02/03/2003 5:18:32 PM PST by Dog Gone
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To: Cicero
So you're a goldbug too? I follow it. It's a good barometer. Yahoo finance doesn't quote gold prices. When it does then you know that .......
7 posted on 02/03/2003 5:21:27 PM PST by dennisw ( <Nemo Me Impune Lacessit> http://www.littlegreenfootballs.com/weblog/weblog.php)
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To: Dog Gone
Sell 1/3 of your gold at $650...

Hold the rest until $1,700...

Pretty easy...
8 posted on 02/03/2003 5:23:44 PM PST by rohry
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To: Cicero
How about the fact that FIAT MONEY is under pressure everywhere. Gold, the only real money. I believe that it will be a lot higher in a year, but I do think that we will see lower prices as well. No question about it, you should be long, and buy more back around 340.00 (we will see it again).
9 posted on 02/03/2003 5:27:42 PM PST by LandofLincoln
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To: Cicero
It's an indication that LIQUIDITY is returning to the banking sector and that the monetary deflation the US has endured since 1997 is probably coming to an end.Take a look at a 10 yr log scale chart on the US dollar index, and you'll find the dollar is where it was in 1999.It goes through gyrations and the world still keeps on turning.
10 posted on 02/03/2003 5:32:49 PM PST by habs4ever
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To: Cicero
Gold will sink like a Polish battleship once the war uncertainty clears up.
11 posted on 02/03/2003 5:34:46 PM PST by weikel (Your commie has no regard for human life not even his own)
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Comment #12 Removed by Moderator

To: Cicero
As always Cicero, you know exactly what you're talking about. Yes, people are looking for a new form of currency. All through the Clinton years the emphasis was on having dollars flow out of the country so that their return would be a boom for the American economy. But alas, it didn't work, and now the dollar is falling. I think platinum is going to do the best, since it is actually a much more precious metal than gold.

Remember how upset, what a panic mode, Clinton was in over the Mexican crisis? He just didn't want it to happen on his shift.

Anyhow, the USA still has the biggest economy in the world, and has been through worse things in the past.
13 posted on 02/03/2003 5:45:24 PM PST by Bogie
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To: dennisw
Yahoo! gold quotes-- http://finance.yahoo.com/m5?a=1&s=XAU&t=USD
14 posted on 02/03/2003 5:48:27 PM PST by Ken H
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To: EU=4th Reich
Maybe so, thanks for the tip on when to BUY into the next strong bull market.

I'm no goldbug, but you're looking at what's passing for a bull market in 2003.

15 posted on 02/03/2003 5:52:03 PM PST by steveegg (I like the nick)
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To: Ken H
Many thanks. I just bookmarked it!
16 posted on 02/03/2003 5:52:31 PM PST by dennisw ( <Nemo Me Impune Lacessit> http://www.littlegreenfootballs.com/weblog/weblog.php)
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To: EU=4th Reich; weikel
If the war goes well for the American-lead coalition with no major damage to Iraqi oil wells and rapid progress towards Baghdad, expect to see major profit-taking in gold back down to a base at 330-350. At that point, traders should wait to see if the war ends quickly and how rapidly oil production will ramp up in Iraq after the war. If the war ends within 1-2 months and Iraqi oil production is expected to increase substantially after the war, there could be major technical damage in the gold markets with further sellling down to the 300-320 range.

If this optimistic scenario does not occur (especially if SH is able to torch a large number of Iraq's oil wells), or if North Korea starts causing major trouble, then all bets are off and gold could test long-term resistance at 380. Assuming that later this year the geopolitical situation finally calms down, gold should trade based on inflation data and the dollar. I don't expect much increase in inflation or continued declines in the dollar, so long-term I'm not real bullish on gold. IMO, stock market trading is more systematic, predictable, and profitable then attempting to trade the gold commodity markets. But if you can do it, good for you and you sure can make a ton of bucks.

17 posted on 02/03/2003 5:56:45 PM PST by carl in alaska (No me gustan los RATones...)
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To: dennisw
I have kept half an eye on gold, but it's been dead for a long, long time. Now it seems to be stirring again. I don't know if that makes me a gold bug. But I'm out of stocks, and I'm getting nervous about long-term bonds.

For the past three years, most people would have done better putting their money under a mattress than putting it into the stock market. I think the odds are we are in for a fourth year of that.
18 posted on 02/03/2003 6:05:40 PM PST by Cicero
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To: carl in alaska
There's usually a seasonal low for gold in the summer as well, with the bottom in July or August. Something to do with the jewelery purchasing schedule. But in an extraordinary year, which this might be, that seasonal pattern could be broken.
19 posted on 02/03/2003 6:09:49 PM PST by Cicero
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To: rohry
Sell 1/3 of your gold at $650... Hold the rest until $1,700...

So you're a pessimist.

Richard W.

20 posted on 02/03/2003 6:17:38 PM PST by arete (Greenspan is a ruling class elitist and closet socialist who is destroying the economy)
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To: carl in alaska
Just a college kid I don't have the money. There is an x factor as you pointed out on whether there are any MAJOR terrorist attacks in the months following the Iraq walkover( yeah they could burn the wells but the Arabs will break and flee like they always do).
21 posted on 02/03/2003 6:28:57 PM PST by weikel (Your commie has no regard for human life not even his own)
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To: arete
Maybe I am...

I don't know where I will sell actually...
22 posted on 02/03/2003 6:38:05 PM PST by rohry
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To: arete
As I mentioned, the Platinum chart is also up. I really don't follow platinum at all, but it certainly looks significant that it's broken the 700 level and is currently at 704. Here's the five-year chart, which clearly shows that it's a new high for that time period:


23 posted on 02/03/2003 6:45:56 PM PST by Cicero
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To: Cicero
I am long Gold futures since $315...go baby!!!!...profits on Gold and Euro are the best since the Internet bubble!
24 posted on 02/03/2003 6:47:55 PM PST by montag813
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To: Cicero
We many be entering an "anything but dollars" period. That's okay by me.

Richard W.

25 posted on 02/03/2003 7:11:15 PM PST by arete (Greenspan is a ruling class elitist and closet socialist who is destroying the economy)
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To: Ken H
Notice gold vs. South African rand? Weird... stable for the last year.
26 posted on 02/03/2003 8:38:42 PM PST by Tauzero
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To: montag813
I'd take my profits now, if I were you. Then wait for it to go back down, a big bunch, and get in again, for more serious profits. That's how I see it.
27 posted on 02/03/2003 10:49:20 PM PST by ThePythonicCow (Mooo !!!!)
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To: weikel
Gold will sink like a Polish battleship once the war uncertainty clears up.

It will dip (assuming the war goes well), go flatline for a bit, and then steadily rise.

If Israel or the States gets hit with WMD or the Saudi,Iraqi and Kuwaiti oil fields get Scudded, skip the dip and the flatline.

28 posted on 02/04/2003 9:22:37 AM PST by AdamSelene235
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To: AdamSelene235
....Ping.....
29 posted on 02/04/2003 4:42:21 PM PST by ExSES
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To: ExSES
Pong ???
30 posted on 02/04/2003 4:56:16 PM PST by AdamSelene235
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