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Is there a sucker punch coming from the North? [Complete Vanity]
Yours Truly | 3/31/2003 | Yours Truly

Posted on 03/31/2003 2:39:58 PM PST by TheConservator

Is there a sucker punch coming from the North?

Fact one: The coalition captured the H2 and H3 airfields in western Iraq on the first day of the war. And they took care to bomb the refueling station that is halfway between Baghdad and the Jordanian border--a target seemingly of no immediate military significance.

Fact two: Since that time, there has been virtually no reporting out of that area. There are also virtually no refugees leaving Iraq for Jordan, although thousands were expected, and the Jordanians built a campt to house them (which remains virtually empty).

Fact three: There are at least elements of a Second Marine Expeditionary force in the middle east. But there has been no reporting regarding the same. For a rare exception, see http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/876640/posts?page=101,3

Fact four: The coalition is now engaging in a series of what are described as probing attacks, which appear to be designed to lure the Republican Guard units north of Baghdad into moving south to reinforce those units south of Baghdad. Recent reports confirm that the Iraqis have in fact been sending these units south.

Speculation: The coalition has assembled a force in western Iraq, north of the H2/H3 airfields. As soon as Centcomm determines that the RG divisions have in fact been drawn south, they will launch an attack from the "spearhead" sufficient to hold their attention/keep them in place. And then the force assembled in western Iraq will pivot round the lakes to the west of Baghdad, and walk in--essentially unopposed--from the north, hitting the Republican Guards in the rear.

This would amount to holding the Republican Guards by the nose, while kicking them in the ass. (George S. Patton). It could lead to the destruction of the Iraqi army as a fighting force in a fairly short period of time, the fall of Baghdad without house to house fighting--everything that the US government could ask for.

Is this possible? Or is it just a figment of my fevered imagination?

P.S. Please don't carp about secrets. This is all based on publicly available information.


TOPICS: Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: iraq; strategery
Comments?
1 posted on 03/31/2003 2:39:58 PM PST by TheConservator
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To: TheConservator
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/879568/posts
2 posted on 03/31/2003 2:42:20 PM PST by JennysCool
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To: TheConservator
Only one comment. I hope you are 100% correct.
3 posted on 03/31/2003 2:42:27 PM PST by Argus
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To: TheConservator
I've been saying it for days. Hope it comes true. I saw a report about what division was unloading up there and it was a very interesting number.
4 posted on 03/31/2003 2:42:42 PM PST by Arkinsaw
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To: TheConservator
I don't think speculation like this does anything more than fuel our vanity while ensuring our enemies consider every possibility.

That said, I've had the same thought. I don't believe we've seen "shock and awe" yet...
5 posted on 03/31/2003 2:44:22 PM PST by pgyanke (Please, Lord, prevent unnecessary casualties in this conflict...and maximize the necessary ones!)
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To: Arkinsaw
That number isn't "1" is it?
6 posted on 03/31/2003 2:44:37 PM PST by TruBluKentuckian
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To: TheConservator
Well, if it's not happening, it certainly seems like an opportunity. Any force that entered between Baghdad and Tikrit would find a soft underbelly.
7 posted on 03/31/2003 2:44:44 PM PST by Dog Gone
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To: TheConservator
A shrewd fighter doesn't telegraph his punches.
8 posted on 03/31/2003 2:44:52 PM PST by anymouse
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To: TheConservator
I have found it interesting that the news coming out from western Iraq has been noticeably absent. If we took those airfields in the first few days, it would make sense to start using them to bring in a lot of men and equipment. Just speculation though.
9 posted on 03/31/2003 2:45:15 PM PST by Rammer
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To: TheConservator
I agree with your analysis. We've got a huge edge in maneuverability and it makes all the sense in the world to attack from a surprise direction--perhaps to cut off the RG from behind.

Lots of the stuff coming out as Pentaon "leaks" are likely disinformation for the purposes of fooling the Iraqis.

12 years ago the "left hook" was pretty obvious given the way the forces were arrayed, so I would suspect we've got something up our sleeves again.

The best part is that even if the Iraqis expect it, they can't really move forces to meet the attack without attracting a lot of attention from our air power.
10 posted on 03/31/2003 2:45:31 PM PST by Numbers Guy
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To: TheConservator
shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
11 posted on 03/31/2003 2:45:44 PM PST by tiki
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To: TheConservator
Maybe our forces in the north will stay back from Baghdad. This will give the RG the impression that there is a northern escape route and then they will kill them as they try to escape. It might sucker the RG into attempting to flee Baghdad instead of going into it to fight.
12 posted on 03/31/2003 2:45:48 PM PST by Brett66
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To: TheConservator
Pretty much what I've been hinting at here and there. Our war plans would be...lacking...if they didn't involve something resembling deception on a mass scale. We never do hear about anything going on in H1, H2, and H3, and that Post 160 was bombed on opening night, almost 2 weeks ago. Similarly, we don't hear too much about the north that doesn't involve the Kurds.

With the recent news that some RG units based in the north have migrated south, they are just starting to get ripe for such a suckerpunch.

13 posted on 03/31/2003 2:45:52 PM PST by Citizen of the Savage Nation
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To: TheConservator
Hey, we now have six new airbases in the Middle East, there are a host of possiblities this presents which "encourages" certain nations to think twice.
14 posted on 03/31/2003 2:47:25 PM PST by kimoajax
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To: TheConservator
You're probably correct that something's going down. My personal opinion is that they're trying to draw units down from Tikrit, and we'd hit them there. Not only is that Saddam's home town, but one of the briefings (Pentagon or CENTCOMM) noted that that's also where they think the main WMD stores are.

Thing is, the Iraqis pretty much have no choice but to send troops down to Baghdad, even if they do suspect a strike at Tikrit.

If they don't shift troops, then we destroy the RG around Baghdad, besiege the city, and move on up to Tikrit and destroy the RG there.

And if they do shift troops -- hoping to delay us around Baghdad -- then our backdoor play works even better.

15 posted on 03/31/2003 2:50:03 PM PST by r9etb
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To: Citizen of the Savage Nation
I would be really impressed if our whole dispute with Turkey turned out to be an enormous deception, and we were smuggling our troops into northern Iraq through there anyway (with the full cooperation of the Turks). Sort of the reverse of Patton's "phantom army" before D-Day. I don't really believe this could happen, but it would be something.
16 posted on 03/31/2003 2:50:09 PM PST by Argus
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To: TheConservator
Well, a northern front was always part of the plan...
17 posted on 03/31/2003 2:50:15 PM PST by pgyanke (Please, Lord, prevent unnecessary casualties in this conflict...and maximize the necessary ones!)
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To: TheConservator
Comments?

Yes, one.

Vanity = Chat.

18 posted on 03/31/2003 2:50:48 PM PST by Neets (Mess with me and you'll be introduced to my big ole can of MOAB.)
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To: TheConservator
There seem to be none, .......zero......zip....nada....reporters embedded with the II MEF and there has been no report out there about there whereabouts. IN addition, do you think all this 4 day pause, strung out supply lines and other stuff might have been Pentagon disinformation?

My guess is the top Iraqi generals have been without Saddam since March 27th, wehn a big bunker buster went off and they have no idea whether to $hit or wind their wrist watch. Rumors are circulating that families of the big shots are fleeing Baghdad.... That happened to the Nazis near the end. He's dead Jim.

19 posted on 03/31/2003 2:51:21 PM PST by irish guard
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To: TheConservator
The coalition captured the H2 and H3 airfields in western Iraq on the first day of the war.

For all we know, the U.S. could have been landing transport planes up there ever since. Thus there may be even more materials and troops up there than you think. Good analysis.

20 posted on 03/31/2003 2:52:01 PM PST by SamAdams76 (California wine beats French wine in blind taste tests. Boycott French wine.)
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To: TheConservator
"This would amount to holding the Republican Guards by the nose, while kicking them in the ass."

I like that image.

21 posted on 03/31/2003 2:55:42 PM PST by headsonpikes
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To: TheConservator
This would amount to holding the Republican Guards by the nose, while kicking them in the ass. (George S. Patton).

...Now I want you to remember that no bastard ever won a war by dying for his country. He won it by making the other poor dumb bastard die for his country. Men, all this stuff you've heard about America not wanting to fight - wanting to stay out of the war, is a lot of horse dung. Americans traditionally love to fight. All real Americans love the sting of battle. When you were kids, you all admired the champion marble shooter, the fastest runner, big league ball players, the toughest boxers. Americans love a winner and will not tolerate a loser. Americans play to win all the time. I wouldn't give a hoot in hell for a man who lost and laughed. That's why Americans have never lost and never will lose a war, because the very thought of losing is hateful to Americans. Now, an army is a team - it lives, eats, sleeps, fights as a team. This individuality stuff is a bunch of crap... Now, we have the finest food and equipment, the best spirit, and the best men in the world. You know, by god, I actually pity those poor bastards we're goin' up against. By god, I do. We're not just gonna shoot the bastards, we're going to cut out their living guts and use them to grease the treads of our tanks. We're going to murder those lousy Hun bastards by the bushel. Now, some of you boys, I know, are wondering whether or not you'll chicken out under fire. Don't worry about it. I can assure you that you will all do your duty. The Nazis are the enemy. Wade into them, spill their blood, shoot them in the belly. When you put your hand into a bunch of goo that a moment before was your best friend's face, you'll know what to do. Now there's another thing I want you to remember. I don't want to get any messages saying that we are holding our position. We're not holding anything. Let the Hun do that. We are advancing constantly and we're not interested in holding onto anything except the enemy. We're going to hold onto him by the nose and we're gonna kick him in the ass. We're going to kick the hell out of him all the time and we're gonna go through him like crap through a goose. Now, there's one thing that you men will be able to say when you get back home, and you may thank god for it. Thirty years from now when you're sitting around your fireside with your grandson on your knee, and he asks you: 'What did you do in the Great World War II?', you won't have to say: 'Well, I shoveled s--t in Louisiana.' All right, now you sons-of-bitches, you know how I feel and I will be proud to lead you wonderful guys into battle anytime, anywhere. That's all.
22 posted on 03/31/2003 2:56:56 PM PST by johnb838 (Understand the root causes of American anger)
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To: irish guard
The family may be leaving because there is no one to protect them. BTW is the wife #1 that is leaving the mother of either of the two sons that are second/third in command?
23 posted on 03/31/2003 2:57:01 PM PST by hoosiermama (Prayers for all)
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To: TheConservator
Since that time, there has been virtually no reporting out of that area

That is not true. Fox had reports that at least one of these fields was being used as a refueling station for aircraft. They are refueling several WartHogs per hour at these bases.

It seems more likely that we have the Republican Guard pinned down and are killing them at a rapid rate. Field commanders were quoted as saying the Republican guard has been reduced by 50 percent. News from this area has been delayed by 48 hours. So if yesterday they were saying 50 percent it is likely the actual number is 70 percent today. In another day or two it will be 90 percent. We have been probing the Republican Guard areas with on the ground re-con forces for several days. I suspect that the Republican guard is just a fraction of its original strength.

We are killing the Republican Guard with Air power using Air force planes, the Army Choppers and Artillery. What is being left for the Armor and Infantry forces to mop up will be very minor.

Once we have the Republican Guard taken down, we will send special forces to Baghdad to capture and/or kill the Iraqi leadership. Shortly after that all organized Resistance will cease.

It is like Berlin in the Last days of the Nazis. They went from trying to kill attackers to trying to escape in about a day. When the choice is resist and die or try to escape and perhaps live, the Iraqi commanders will go for the try to escape and perhaps live.

Some of Saddams underlings actually believed his strategy would work. When they come to the conclusion it is a total failure they will get the heck out of Baghdad as fast as they can.

24 posted on 03/31/2003 3:03:12 PM PST by Common Tator
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To: SamAdams76
Several weeks ago we all watched as equipment, some heavy equipment.. was off-loaded in Turkey...put on rails and convoys..it was not the 4th ID's...whose was it, and where is it?.....Hmmmmmmm!
25 posted on 03/31/2003 3:05:05 PM PST by mystery-ak (Saddam...your time is almost up..my hubby and son are on their way to kick your a$$ out of Baghdad!)
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To: JennysCool
Hate to say it, but if its written here, it is probably NOT the plan!

I do think, however, that the U.S. has something up its sleeve. I would hate to think we do not. Military used the media brillantly in DS to hide flanking move. I would like to think that some resources and assets are in places about which we did not know. We shall see.

26 posted on 03/31/2003 3:07:07 PM PST by Iron Eagle
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To: TheConservator
Bash here. There's evidence that northern units are either moving south or sending elements south. A hole could open up west of Al Fallujah. (Or, if the Iraqis are actually lurking here for pointers, troops that could be used further south are guarding an area the Americans aren't interested in... Decisions, decisions.)
27 posted on 03/31/2003 3:10:19 PM PST by Redcloak (All work and no FReep makes Jack a dull boy. All work and no FReep make s Jack a dul boy. Allwork an)
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To: TheConservator
If you were Saddam, where would you go on the web for the best and most up to date news?

See where I'm leading here?
28 posted on 03/31/2003 3:14:08 PM PST by Born to Conserve
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To: Argus
our whole dispute with Turkey

That same thought crossed my mind yesterday.

And what happened to the ships, equipment, and troops positioned to move into Turkey? Have they gone on vacation?

29 posted on 03/31/2003 3:27:57 PM PST by angkor
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To: Born to Conserve
If you were Saddam, where would you go on the web for the best and most up to date news?

It certainly isn't heaven so he must be going to hell for his information. I still think He and his two bastard sons are dead, and will continue to think that until I see proof otherwise.

30 posted on 03/31/2003 3:32:29 PM PST by chainsaw
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To: TheConservator
So far, our guys have been pretty smart and I dont think they are done yet with their surprises.
An attack from the west is IMHO smart if the logistics can be supported. It's hard to hide a whole division, yet ideally having the 4th ID charge through or having the ranger drop into baghdad airport would be an interesting surprise.

i am sure our guys have the options laid out and dont have just one way to do it. We'll see.
31 posted on 03/31/2003 3:42:02 PM PST by WOSG (Liberate Iraq! God Bless our Troops!)
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To: chainsaw
If you were Saddam, where would you go on the web for the best and most up to date news?

If you were the General Franks, how much Internet access would you let Saddam still have? Has anyone heard whether Internet cafes are still operating in Baghdad?

32 posted on 03/31/2003 4:55:53 PM PST by AZLiberty
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To: TheConservator
Fact one: The coalition captured the H2 and H3 airfields in western Iraq on the first day of the war. And they took care to bomb the refueling station that is halfway between Baghdad and the Jordanian border--a target seemingly of no immediate military significance.

You may be right on the whole. But there was immediate military significance -- or perhaps political significance -- in doing so. It made it much more difficult for Iraq to attack Israel with missiles.

33 posted on 03/31/2003 5:12:00 PM PST by Celtjew Libertarian (No more will we pretend that our desire/For liberty is number-cold and has no fire.)
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To: TheConservator
I predict from the east.
34 posted on 03/31/2003 5:22:40 PM PST by Blood of Tyrants (Even if the government took all your earnings, you wouldn’t be, in its eyes, a slave.)
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To: TheConservator
What is the background on these tidbits about a missing Marine Expedtionary Force I've been reading about on FR? Do we know if and when it was deployed? Where is it based in the States? Isn't deployment information widely reported?
35 posted on 03/31/2003 5:24:55 PM PST by not-an-ostrich
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To: Blood of Tyrants
Well that would be a coup, now wouldn't it? I wondered about the East myself, until I looked at a topo map. Too much marshland in the East.
36 posted on 03/31/2003 5:43:45 PM PST by Semper911 (For some people, bread and circus are not enough. Hence, FreeRepublic.com)
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To: TheConservator
Your thinking is like mine, only yours is much more complex. Nice work.

I might add that a few days ago the Kurdish commanders were complaining that not enough targets were being taken out. Total misinfo, to make the North look weak.

p.s. I always believed that the Turkey "resistance" was a ruse from the start. There has been a constant stream of good guys pouring in from the north since day one, in my opinion.

And, might I add, who decided where the embedded reporters would be situated? The Pentagon, of course. All the news is coming out of the South, so it seems as though all the strength is there.

Those reporters have not been invited to the party as a jesture of good will. They are part of the plan. A very important part. A brilliant part.

How many times have you heard General Franks say, "Trust the reports of the embedded reporters" ?

(And don't even get me started on the reports that we don't have enough boots on the ground. All part of the plan.)

37 posted on 03/31/2003 5:56:57 PM PST by Semper911 (For some people, bread and circus are not enough. Hence, FreeRepublic.com)
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To: Rammer
I have found it interesting that the news coming out from western Iraq has been noticeably absent.

Sir SuziQ and I were watching FoxNews last night and they were talking about these 'thousands' of Iraqis who are in Jordan but getting on buses to return to fight against the Coalition. Has anyone heard anything else about these folks? Methinks they may get waylaid out in the Western Desert and end up cooling their heels in one of Sadaam's 'hospitality houses' out that way.

That area is crawling with Special forces; no way those folks are going to make it to Baghdad, especially with the refueling station gone.

38 posted on 03/31/2003 6:05:58 PM PST by SuziQ
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To: TheConservator
This seems to be a good idea...because several have thought of it.

Here is an excellent and detailed analysis of a similar plan. (It was a vanity moved to chat). Read carefully.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/879184/posts
39 posted on 03/31/2003 6:07:53 PM PST by edwin hubble
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To: Semper911
>>Those reporters have not been invited to the party as a jesture of good will. They are part of the plan. A very important part. A brilliant part<<

Agree completely.

We want the RG to come out and play.

We will say anything that will accomplish this goal.

1) Rush to Baghdad

2) Out of supplies

3) Unexpected resistance

4) Supply lines threatened

5) Whatever...

Once there is space between Baghdad and the RG Divisions, II MEF, the Big Red One, and ?Other friends will come rolling in behind and it's bye-bye RG.

40 posted on 03/31/2003 6:10:35 PM PST by Jim Noble
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To: Common Tator
That is not true. Fox had reports that at least one of these fields was being used as a refueling station for aircraft.

Yes, they've given reports from time to time, but I don't think there is anyone embedded with those forces out west. It would be interesting to know what's up out there!

41 posted on 03/31/2003 7:15:57 PM PST by SuziQ
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To: TheConservator
Bump
42 posted on 03/31/2003 9:11:41 PM PST by ambrose
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To: SuziQ
Re: expatriots returning to fight for Iraq

I think it is a bunch of Islamic hot air. They put on this show about going back to fight, but these "middle-class mujahadeen" are simply trying to get in on the ground floor for when the rebuilding takes place.

Of course, I won't shed a tear if they happen to wander into one of saddam's forgotten minefields...=)

43 posted on 04/02/2003 10:59:53 AM PST by Cobra Scott
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To: TheConservator
I think this is a well thought out strategy and quite possible what will happen.

During the Gulf war everyone wsa fixated by the lines of coalition and Iraqi soldiers facing one another. Most if not all of the Media kept expecting us to run straight at them hey diddle straight up the middle. After looking at the map of suspected Iraqi positions I told my wife that what I would do is Land Marines north of Kuwait city, use that as a diversionary attack and then send armored elements out to hit the Iraqi left flank and roll it up, or bypass it and dive into the rear areas cutting off retreat.

I was stunned to see that this is almost precisely what they did. They just didn't land the Marines, they kept them on station to act as a threat to the Iraqi right rear.

Semper Fi
44 posted on 04/02/2003 11:06:39 AM PST by Leatherneck_MT (Can't stand rude behavior in a man.... Won't tolerate it.)
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