Is there a sucker punch coming from the North? [Complete Vanity]

Yours Truly | 3/31/2003 | Yours Truly

[TheConservator]

Is there a sucker punch coming from the North?

Fact one: The coalition captured the H2 and H3 airfields in western Iraq on the first day of the war. And they took care to bomb the refueling station that is halfway between Baghdad and the Jordanian border--a target seemingly of no immediate military significance.

Fact two: Since that time, there has been virtually no reporting out of that area. There are also virtually no refugees leaving Iraq for Jordan, although thousands were expected, and the Jordanians built a campt to house them (which remains virtually empty).

Fact three: There are at least elements of a Second Marine Expeditionary force in the middle east. But there has been no reporting regarding the same. For a rare exception, see http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/876640/posts?page=101,3

Fact four: The coalition is now engaging in a series of what are described as probing attacks, which appear to be designed to lure the Republican Guard units north of Baghdad into moving south to reinforce those units south of Baghdad. Recent reports confirm that the Iraqis have in fact been sending these units south.

Speculation: The coalition has assembled a force in western Iraq, north of the H2/H3 airfields. As soon as Centcomm determines that the RG divisions have in fact been drawn south, they will launch an attack from the "spearhead" sufficient to hold their attention/keep them in place. And then the force assembled in western Iraq will pivot round the lakes to the west of Baghdad, and walk in--essentially unopposed--from the north, hitting the Republican Guards in the rear.

This would amount to holding the Republican Guards by the nose, while kicking them in the ass. (George S. Patton). It could lead to the destruction of the Iraqi army as a fighting force in a fairly short period of time, the fall of Baghdad without house to house fighting--everything that the US government could ask for.

Is this possible? Or is it just a figment of my fevered imagination?

P.S. Please don't carp about secrets. This is all based on publicly available information.

[TheConservator]

Comments?

[JennysCool]

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/879568/posts

[Argus]

Only one comment. I hope you are 100% correct.

[Arkinsaw]

I've been saying it for days. Hope it comes true. I saw a report about what division was unloading up there and it was a very interesting number.

[pgyanke]

I don't think speculation like this does anything more than fuel our vanity while ensuring our enemies consider every possibility.

That said, I've had the same thought. I don't believe we've seen "shock and awe" yet...

[TruBluKentuckian]

That number isn't "1" is it?

[Dog Gone]

Well, if it's not happening, it certainly seems like an opportunity. Any force that entered between Baghdad and Tikrit would find a soft underbelly.

[anymouse]

A shrewd fighter doesn't telegraph his punches.

[Rammer]

I have found it interesting that the news coming out from western Iraq has been noticeably absent. If we took those airfields in the first few days, it would make sense to start using them to bring in a lot of men and equipment. Just speculation though.

[Numbers Guy]

I agree with your analysis. We've got a huge edge in maneuverability and it makes all the sense in the world to attack from a surprise direction--perhaps to cut off the RG from behind.

Lots of the stuff coming out as Pentaon "leaks" are likely disinformation for the purposes of fooling the Iraqis.

12 years ago the "left hook" was pretty obvious given the way the forces were arrayed, so I would suspect we've got something up our sleeves again.

The best part is that even if the Iraqis expect it, they can't really move forces to meet the attack without attracting a lot of attention from our air power.

[tiki]

shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

[Brett66]

Maybe our forces in the north will stay back from Baghdad. This will give the RG the impression that there is a northern escape route and then they will kill them as they try to escape. It might sucker the RG into attempting to flee Baghdad instead of going into it to fight.

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

Pretty much what I've been hinting at here and there. Our war plans would be...lacking...if they didn't involve something resembling deception on a mass scale. We never do hear about anything going on in H1, H2, and H3, and that Post 160 was bombed on opening night, almost 2 weeks ago. Similarly, we don't hear too much about the north that doesn't involve the Kurds.

With the recent news that some RG units based in the north have migrated south, they are just starting to get ripe for such a suckerpunch.

[kimoajax]

Hey, we now have six new airbases in the Middle East, there are a host of possiblities this presents which "encourages" certain nations to think twice.

[r9etb]

You're probably correct that something's going down. My personal opinion is that they're trying to draw units down from Tikrit, and we'd hit them there. Not only is that Saddam's home town, but one of the briefings (Pentagon or CENTCOMM) noted that that's also where they think the main WMD stores are.

Thing is, the Iraqis pretty much have no choice but to send troops down to Baghdad, even if they do suspect a strike at Tikrit.

If they don't shift troops, then we destroy the RG around Baghdad, besiege the city, and move on up to Tikrit and destroy the RG there.

And if they do shift troops -- hoping to delay us around Baghdad -- then our backdoor play works even better.

[Argus]

I would be really impressed if our whole dispute with Turkey turned out to be an enormous deception, and we were smuggling our troops into northern Iraq through there anyway (with the full cooperation of the Turks). Sort of the reverse of Patton's "phantom army" before D-Day. I don't really believe this could happen, but it would be something.

[pgyanke]

Well, a northern front was always part of the plan...

[Neets]

Comments?

Yes, one.

Vanity = Chat.

[irish guard]

There seem to be none, .......zero......zip....nada....reporters embedded with the II MEF and there has been no report out there about there whereabouts. IN addition, do you think all this 4 day pause, strung out supply lines and other stuff might have been Pentagon disinformation?

My guess is the top Iraqi generals have been without Saddam since March 27th, wehn a big bunker buster went off and they have no idea whether to $hit or wind their wrist watch. Rumors are circulating that families of the big shots are fleeing Baghdad.... That happened to the Nazis near the end. He's dead Jim.

[SamAdams76]

The coalition captured the H2 and H3 airfields in western Iraq on the first day of the war.

For all we know, the U.S. could have been landing transport planes up there ever since. Thus there may be even more materials and troops up there than you think. Good analysis.