Possible Plutonium Find Has Wide and Disturbing Implications

STRATFOR ^ | Apr 10, 2003

[Axion]

Possible Plutonium Find Has Wide and Disturbing Implications
Apr 10, 2003 - 2202 GMT

Summary

Initial reports from coalition forces at Iraq's Al Tuwaitha nuclear complex indicate the presence of weapons-grade plutonium. If this is truly the case, and tests should confirm the plutonium's presence very shortly, the finding will have disturbing ramifications for the region and American foreign policy.

Analysis

Coalition forces searching the Al Tuwaitha nuclear complex just south of Baghdad on April 10 have detected a type of radiation that could signal the presence of weapons-grade plutonium.

One of two materials is used to fuel nuclear explosions: uranium or plutonium.

The initial indications from Al Tuwaitha indicate the presence of plutonium-239. If true, this is worrying on numerous fronts. Uranium is far more abundant than plutonium and methods to separate, purify and mold weapons-grade uranium are not particularly technically advanced or expensive. Plutonium manufacture and purification, in contrast, is one of the most advanced weapon-fabrication processes. Plutonium weapons also require far less material -- as little as 5 kilograms -- and so plutonium weapons can use a wider array of lighter delivery vehicles. Unlike uranium, plutonium does not occur naturally in any form.

Using radiation detectors to determine the difference between uranium products and plutonium products without taking samples is a sketchy business, but there is one relatively clear difference. When plutonium-239 decays naturally it emits almost exclusively alpha particles, or positively charged helium nuclei. Uranium isotopes, on the other hand, emit beta particles (electrons) and gamma rays along with alpha radiation.

Alpha radiation normally cannot penetrate clothes and skin, whereas beta and gamma radiation certainly can. Initial reports from Al Tuwaitha indicate very high levels of radiation, yet there have been no reported casualties. That indicates that most of the radiation is probably not beta or gamma radiation, but alpha radiation, plutonium-239's calling card. Since the people who discovered the radiation at Al Tuwaitha have reported no health problems, the plutonium is most likely purified -- and therefore usable in a weapons program.

This has some disturbing implications.

No isotope of plutonium occurs naturally. In fact, it is normally created in only one of two ways. The first method involves bombarding a sample of uranium-238 with neutrons to make plutonium-239. In the second method, a uranium reactor creates the plutonium as a byproduct.

Unlike uranium enrichment programs required to make uranium-based nuclear weapons, plutonium enrichment and purification is an expensive and technically advanced process involving quite a bit of sophisticated equipment that supposedly is under a series of strict international controls.

If Iraq has obtained the equipment to manufacture or extract plutonium, it must either have some quite complex -- and highly restricted -- technology or a functioning nuclear reactor.

Such a confirmation would signal a colossal failure not only of the United Nations sanctions regime as relates to Iraq's weapons of mass destruction, but also of the broader global efforts to stem the spread of nuclear technology. The new fear would be that if Iraq, clearly on the to-watch list, can import nuclear materials and advanced nuclear technology, so can other nuclear wannabes.

It also means that United States will hardly want to depend upon the United Nations or the International Atomic Energy Agency for global nuclear security, for if it cannot prevent proliferation in the relatively cut-and-dried case of Iraq, it will be next to useless in cases where the subject has more international standing.

[McGavin999]

OK, anyone who didn't already think the UN was useless please raise your hand.

[EternalVigilance]

OK, anyone who didn't already think the UN was useless please raise your hand.

*crickets chirping*

[William McKinley]

Pretty weak analysis here. Beta radiation generally can only penetrate the skin so far- down to the germinal layer. Long term effects can happen from external exposure to beta radiation, but for acute effects there would need to be some internalization of the material (assimilation or uptake, or dust inhaled and lodging itself in the lungs, for example). But just saying "no one has had immediate health effects so it must be alpha" is quite silly.

[norcalvet]

Another thought: we have heard nothing from the specialized teams that are specifically tasked with locating, identifying, and securing the WMD facilities, and I hear they have over 1000 facilities on their list. I doubt we will hear anything until they progress much further, because lots of attention will hamper their mission. So far, all these WMD finds we are hearing about are regular units stumbling across things that seem suspicious. In other words, be patient, these are not the real deal yet.

[Diddley]

"Initial reports", "may", "could"...

Yup. These are weasel words (but nevertheless it is quite serious).

[Diddley]

It also means that United States will hardly want to depend upon the United Nations or the International Atomic Energy Agency for global nuclear security, for if it cannot prevent proliferation in the relatively cut-and-dried case of Iraq, it will be next to useless in cases where the subject has more international standing.

Amen!

[AndyJackson]

OK, anyone who didn't already think the UN was useless please raise your hand.

LOL - this is precious. I am still trying to parse it. Maybe after another long pour of single malt I will get it figured out. Oh - I quit beating my dog too.

[CobaltBlue]

Rummy said today that anything suspicious would be analyzed not only by us but by testing facilities in other countries in order to have independent verification.

I know that some of the coalition forces, not US or Brit, are skilled in this type of thing -- off the top of my head possibly Germany and Japan.

He said we would keep a good chain of custody and that takes time.

[Rockitz]

I have to acknowledge another freeper on another thread who made this initial suggestion. Was it me?

[jwfiv]

nuclear ping

[tortoise]

And where after a great deal of searching and strange activity the source was supposedly "trace elements in a consignment of tiles"?

You mean like make tiles with plutonium added to the mix, ship it to wherever your destination is, grind up the tiles, and chemically extract/concentrate the plutonium? This would actually be relatively trivial to do...

[joesnuffy]

GW Bush probably ...and inspite of the democraps...saved America

Had they nuked our cities instead of plowing highjacked aircraft into them...

That alone could have been all the Rooskies or Chinese along with all our other enemies would have needed to pile on..

Even without ...what a devstating attack it would have been

And had Algore won...within a few years or months Iraq would have been able using its various terror agents...nuked America and would have..

Gore would not have lifted a finger to stop it...

We were perhaps ....inches away from destruction...or at least a few stuffed Broward county ballot boxes away..

Those old folks down there after Ed Assnerd scared the crap out of them by lying about the Repubs stealing their Social Security money almost sank us...them and and the democraps stuffing ballot boxes...altering ballots and hangning chads...

[blam]

"There's a third, and perhaps even more disturbing possibility: that the plutonium was produced elsewhere (say, Russia or France) and shipped in its purified form to Iraq."

IMO, This is the most likely. It's my understanding that each reactor leaves a 'signature' in the isotopes and can be tracked exactly to its source. Someone is in serious trouble.

[blam]

"We need a new strategy on how to deal with this."

We have one, you're presently seeing it in Iraq.

[MadIvan]

Both Bush and Blair acted as if they knew something about Iraq, but did not want to say in case they started widespread panic. The idea of Saddam possessing nuclear weapons is indeed one such item which fits the bill. In which case, once this is exposed to the rest of the world, all of our opponents from France to the hippies of San Francisco, are going to look unbelievably stupid.

Regards, Ivan

[tallhappy]

Actually, not that post. There was one on the radiation find that said it as well.

[edwin hubble]

"Both Bush and Blair acted as if they knew something about Iraq, but did not want to say in case they started widespread panic."

Ivan,
My son kept asking 'why are we so determined to go into Iraq before it gets too hot this year'?

I told him that Saddam was probably 8 months from having a nuclear device. If we waited until the weather was cool enough next fall to go in it would be too late.

Nuclear blackmail against Kuwait, Israel, Saudi Arabia, etc. We would be right where we are now with N. Korea

[sd-joe]

>> "...let slip the cats of conjecture"

I LOVE that phrase.

[livius]

let slip the cats of conjecture

Great phrase! May I use it for a tag, pretty please?

On a more serious note, this is an excellent article that explains many things that mystified me about the significance of plutonium, as opposed to plain old uranium. That is, I wasn't quite sure why this was such a significant find, if true. Now that I know, I think I'll go off and conjecture for a while...

[Beck_isright]

Although insightful it misses a bigger point. If Iraq has it, odds are Syria, Libya and who knows who else (Venzuela or Cuba?) have it also. This also increase the odds of a true nuke within our borders. If they have developed a trigger for it, we could lose a city easily. Smuggling this into the U.S. would not be difficult with such stalwart allies as Mexico.(sarcasm off)

V