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2004 Senate Update (Predictions for '04 Senate Races)
http://www.polipundit.com/ ^ | 4/17/03 2:00 | polipundit.com

Posted on 04/17/2003 11:08:07 AM PDT by NYC Republican

2004 Senate Update

Now that the Iraq situation is stabilizing somewhat, it's time for another 2004 Senate analysis. I'm going to cover all the important races so that you don't have to read my previous updates.

With Bush at the top of the ticket in 2004 and a gerrymandered House Republican majority that will endure, barring a meteor strike, the Senate is the key battleground in 2004. The GOP has a genuine opportunity to get a filibuster-proof majority for the first time since the Great Depression.

The Senate playing field in general favors the GOP because:

1. The Senate should be rightfully Republican. Bush won 30 states in 2000 and, if each of them elected two GOP senators, Republicans would enjoy a 60-40 advantage in the Senate. Senate races have been getting increasingly ideological in the last few election cycles; so the GOP's odds are looking better and better in Bush states. Note also that most of the closely decided states in 2000 were won by Gore. Republican candidates will be competitive in these states as well.

2. More Democrats than Republicans are up for election in 2004. Out of 19 Democrats, 10 are from states that Bush won in 2000. Out of 15 Republicans, only 3 are from states that Gore won in 2000.

3. 2004 is a presidential election year, in which ideology will matter and the top of the ticket will matter. I'd expect President Bush to be a strong candidate for re-election and also help with fund-raising for GOP candidates, like he did in 2002.

4. Democratic hatred of President Bush is forcing "moderate" Democrats up for re-election in 2004 to take up a much more hardline position than they'd like to. Their controversial votes in the Senate over the next two years will provide ample fodder for GOP campaign ads.

I'll be "conservative" and make Republicans seem more vulnerable than they really are, and Democrats stronger than they really are. With that in mind, here's what the outlook is like:

Vulnerable Republicans

1. Peter Fitzgerald (IL) - Fitzgerald would likely have lost his seat in 2004 if he'd decided to run. Instead, he's decided not to run. The Democrats will likely pick up this seat (Illinois has been trending Democratic and Gore won by 12 points in 2000.) If Republicans recruit former Governor Jim Edgar, they might stand a fair chance; but that looks unlikely at this point.

2. Lisa Murkowski (D-AK) - Murkowski was appointed by her father to fill out his Senate term when he was elected governor in 2002. She may have to face a tough primary because she's not considered conservative enough. In the general election, though, the only Democrat who could give the Republicans a run for their money is former Governor Tony Knowles. Even so this seat is likely going to remain Republican.

3. Arlen Specter (PA) - "Scottish Law" Specter has a very low ACU rating and even helped "Bork" Robert Bork. He is facing a well-funded primary challenge from GOP Congressman and Club For Growth prodigy Pat Toomey. Specter's voting record has become much more conservative since Toomey announced his challenge; this is going to be an interesting race to watch. And don't fret about Toomey being too conservative to win in the general election. He's a superb candidate, like Pennsylvania's other senator, Rick Santorum, and will be able to win swing voters.

4. John McCain (AZ) - A lot of ticked-off conservatives will make sure McCain gets a tough primary from a genuine conservative like Club For Growth protege Jeff Flake.

5. Ben Nighthorse Campbell (CO) - Will Campbell retire? It's looking like he'll probably stay on and sleep-walk to victory.

6. Jim Bunning (KY) - Bunning looked vulnerable before, but looks much safer now because his best potential challenger, governor Paul Patton, couldn't keep it in his pants.

Vulnerable Democrats

1. Zell Miller (GA) - As I predicted, Zell Miller is retiring. Republicans will likely pick up this seat; it's just a question of which candidate will be nominated. I'd prefer a genuine conservative like Congressman Jack Kingston to a mushy moderate like Congressman Johnny Isaakson. Isaakson is running, but Kingston and other conservatives are, surprisingly, yet to throw their hats into the ring.

2. Fritz Hollings (SC) - Whether Hollings retires or not, the GOP is likely to pick up this seat. Hollings, who will be 82 in 2004, just might retire and make this even easier for the GOP. His intentions are as vague as ever; but Republican Congressman Jim DeMint is already running and will give Hollings a high hurdle to jump.

3. Blanche Lincoln (AR) - Popular governor Mike Huckabee can probably take out lightweight Lincoln. Sources say he's getting ready to run. Popular former congressman and current DEA Administrator Asa Hutchinson has been making trips to Arkansas, stroking speculation that he might run for the Senate in 2004. Either of these GOPers would prove a major headache for Lincoln.

4. Harry Reid (NV) - Senate Democratic Whip Harry Reid always wins his seat by tiny margins. GOP Rep. Jim Gibbons is gearing up to challenge him in 2004 and he'll probably face another tough re-election fight. Having Bush at the top of the ticket just might be enough to tip the scales against him.

5. Tom Daschle (SD) - Losing 2002 GOP candidate John Thune is looking increasingly to run (as a contributor to his 2002 campaign, I just got a letter asking for contributions for a new group he's starting, which looks like a jumping-off point for a 2004 run.) If Thune runs, this race will be a tossup, thanks to Daschle's outrageous comments and the fact that he's no longer Senate Majority Leader. Daschle will have to spend time and money on his own race, rather than helping other Democrats.

5. Chuck Schumer (NY) - Republicans will take back Al D'Amato's seat from Schumer if Rudy Guiliani decides to run for the senate. Rudy's been travelling around the country saying that he'll stay in the private sector for "a couple of years." Hmmm. That lines up nicely with 2004. With Schumer being a fund-raising machine, this would be the same sort of blowout race that Clinton-Giuliani was becoming in 2000.

6. John Edwards (NC) - I'm not sure what the liberal media establishment sees in this wildly gesticulating, empty-headed, pretty-boy trial lawyer (to consider him Presidential Material!) With a job approval rating of 43%, Edwards is in trouble in his home state. You can bet his challenger will do a much better job than bumbling senator Lauch Faircloth, whom Edwards toppled in 1998. Edwards' presidential campaign isn't going very well and he's moving ever-leftwards to gain the affections of Democratic presidential primary voters. When his presidential campaign inevitably fails, he'll be facing a tough challenge back home from GOP Congressman Richard Burr.

7. Bob Graham (FL) - Bob Graham is the most frustratingly indecisive man in politics today. He takes weeks or months to make up his mind on things and almost always ends up making a hardline partisan Democratic decision. He's done the same with his run for the presidency, vacillating for months. And he promised not to run for the Senate if he ran for the presidency, only to go back on that pledge. This hardline leftist deserves to lose his seat. Unfortinately, Florida voters will probably re-elect him if he runs for the Senate after losing the presidential nomination. Regardless of whether Graham retires or not, though, he'll get a good challenge from GOP Congressman Mark Foley. If Graham retires, this seat will lean Republican and someone like HUD Secretary Mel Martinez would make a strong GOP candidate.

8. Patty Murray (WA) - Osama Mama could have been beaten by GOP Congresswoman Jennifer Dunn (my congresswoman.) A recent poll showed the two neck-and-neck; but Dunn decided not to challenge Murray, leaving speaker-slaying Congressman George Nethercutt as the only credible challenger. If Nethercutt runs, he'll give Murray a tough challenge; but she'll probably squeak home. Unless the networks call Florida for Bush early in the day.

8. Byron Dorgan (ND) - Dorgan and Kent Conrad did a merry two-step in the early 90s to provide very conservative North Dakota with two hard left senators. Former governor Ed Schafer, however, could make life very uncomfortable for Dorgan if he decides to challenge him.

9. Russ Feingold (WI) - Arch-liberal Feingold has the same problem as Harry Reid. He's far too liberal for his swing state.

10. Barbara Boxer (CA) - Ultra-leftie Boxer can be beaten if Republicans can recruit a strong (read pro-choice) challenger and Bush wins by a landslide at the top of the ticket. Republicans are trying to get former Senator and Governor Pete Wilson to run against Boxer in California. Another potential candidate is US Treasurer Rosario Marin, who's Hispanic


TOPICS: Editorial; Miscellaneous; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: 2004; 2004senateraces
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As usual, some excellent political insight from the folks at www.PoliPundit.com

You may also want to check out www.realclearpolitics.com for polling info, analysis/commentary, and a great recap of the day's major stories and viewpoints.

Any thoughts on this analysis?

1 posted on 04/17/2003 11:08:07 AM PDT by NYC Republican
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To: NYC Republican
I'm feeling some stirring of hope we can bump off Boxer. She's never had an approval rating in California higher than 50%, which means she's even too liberal for THIS state.
2 posted on 04/17/2003 11:11:37 AM PDT by My2Cents ("Well....there you go again.")
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To: NYC Republican
Very interesting analysis..if I may add Louisiana in the mix with Breaux..if Breaux runs for re-election it's his..but if he should retire..which is a terrible secret around here, then the GOP has a chance to win an OPEN seat with Bush at the top of the ticket..a state he carried easily in 2000..note that I say OPEN seat..this state has not voted out an incumbent senator since 1930..and it took HUEY P. LONG to do that..incumbency is a cancer in this state (ala lying landrieu)..
3 posted on 04/17/2003 11:16:39 AM PDT by BerniesFriend
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To: My2Cents
The key, IMO, is to get someone who's not too conservative, but supports most of our platform (i.e.- not totally pro-life)... It's certainly not the ideal situation, but, alas, California is like New York- a stong conservative just can't win state-wide. The last person to do that in NY was D'Amato, and he'd have no chance of winning now.
4 posted on 04/17/2003 11:17:01 AM PDT by NYC Republican
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To: NYC Republican
The only real Dem pickup possibility is IL, and if Edgar gets in even that isn't a sure thing. I say the GOP gets GA, and probably SC. Those are the two best chances. Specter will win the primary and the general in PA.
5 posted on 04/17/2003 11:19:52 AM PDT by TheBigB (**FOX NEWS ALERT Saddam Hussein is dead. Unless he's alive. THIS HAS BEEN A FOX NEWS ALERT**)
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To: NYC Republican
"8. Patty Murray (WA) - Osama Mama could have been beaten by GOP Congresswoman Jennifer Dunn (my congresswoman.) A recent poll showed the two neck-and-neck; but Dunn decided not to challenge Murray, leaving speaker-slaying Congressman George Nethercutt as the only credible challenger. If Nethercutt runs, he'll give Murray a tough challenge; but she'll probably squeak home. Unless the networks call Florida for Bush early in the day.",

I don't think Nethercutt would make it to the first turn before he'll be many lengths behind. He'll carry Washington East of the Cascades, but doesn't have a chance in the Puget Sound "Crescent".

Osama bin Murray has a load of cash and the state GOP is AWOL. I think I saw GOP Chairman Vance holding a sign on the I-5 freeway ramp the other day, I couldn't quite read the message, something about will work for votes or something.

2004 will be ugly for the GOP here in the Peoples Dominion of Washington.

6 posted on 04/17/2003 11:21:34 AM PDT by bigfootbob
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To: NYC Republican
Very good analysis.
7 posted on 04/17/2003 11:21:40 AM PDT by ConservativeMan55
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To: NYC Republican
2. Fritz Hollings (SC) - Whether Hollings retires or not, the GOP is likely to pick up this seat

Given the death of his daughter the other day, I'd find it hard to imagine him running again.

8 posted on 04/17/2003 11:21:54 AM PDT by The G Man (Hey CNN ... "NO BLOOD FOR RATINGS!!!")
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To: ConservativeMan55
If I keep posting their stuff, you'll think I'm on their payroll... It's actually one of the first sites I check out each morning... After FR, of course.

My favorite BLOG site.
9 posted on 04/17/2003 11:23:47 AM PDT by NYC Republican
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To: NYC Republican
What I would love to see is clips of these Dem's saying rabid things in their own words and actions on TV. It has really made up my mind in the past. How many times did we see Bush Sr. say: "No new taxes" on the glassy tube?

I want to see Dashle say over and over again some of his most rabid anti-American statements in front of his constituents. Why is this not done more often?

Let's give 'em enough rope.
10 posted on 04/17/2003 11:23:58 AM PDT by Only1choice____Freedom (Idiots create their own irony.)
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To: The G Man
While I would definitely not say Hollings would use his daughter's death to his advantage in a Senate race, you can be certain the Phlegmocrats see his daughter's death as a boon to landing a sympathy vote in S.C.
11 posted on 04/17/2003 11:24:24 AM PDT by WillVoteForFood
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To: My2Cents
More likely, she's too stupid. But this IS California!
12 posted on 04/17/2003 11:25:03 AM PDT by norge
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To: bigfootbob
That's unfortuanate... Is it a California effect? Bringing Oregon and Wash into the (lib) fold? Just wondering how they've swung so far left over the past several years. Cali you can see, due to their demographics...
13 posted on 04/17/2003 11:26:02 AM PDT by NYC Republican
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To: NYC Republican
I was thinking that D'Amato should try for another run...perhaps NY is just fed up enough with the twosome traitors that they'd remember a good senator and re-elect him!
14 posted on 04/17/2003 11:27:15 AM PDT by princess leah
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To: Only1choice____Freedom
"What I would love to see is clips of these Dem's saying rabid things in their own words and actions on TV. It has really made up my mind in the past. How many times did we see Bush Sr. say: "No new taxes" on the glassy tube? "

I've ALWAYS wondered that as well. One great example would be all of the war naysayers, predicting gloom and doom. Even better would be Algore's comments about what a horrible world it would be under Bush.
15 posted on 04/17/2003 11:27:16 AM PDT by NYC Republican
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To: WillVoteForFood
Any sympathy gained would dissipate in a few weeks. It'll never carry over into late 2004.
16 posted on 04/17/2003 11:27:55 AM PDT by NYC Republican
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To: NYC Republican
I think we lose IL and pick up NC, GA, and SC.
17 posted on 04/17/2003 11:29:00 AM PDT by afuturegovernor
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Comment #18 Removed by Moderator

To: NYC Republican
Senate races have been getting increasingly ideological in the last few election cycles

Only among RATs.

In 1981, states that Gore won by >54% had 13 GOP Senators. Now they have two.

In 1981, states that Bush won by >54% had eleven RAT Senators. Now they have-eleven.

All the "ideology" in the Senate races (and the author is right, there has been a marked increase) has been on the other side. We are not even in the fight.

19 posted on 04/17/2003 11:29:26 AM PDT by Jim Noble
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To: princess leah
It'll never happen. As long as a candidate is pro-life, the Dems will lasso it around their necks like a tire necklace. This issue is THAT potent in NY... and N.J. and California.
20 posted on 04/17/2003 11:29:26 AM PDT by NYC Republican
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