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War may tilt partisan balance (let's hope so)
The Hill ^ | April 16, 2003 | Dr. David Hill

Posted on 04/17/2003 3:27:45 PM PDT by fightinJAG

War may tilt partisan balance By Dr. David Hill

Wars make a difference. Like other cataclysmic events of our times, including assassinations and economic depressions or recessions, wars become milestones in the evolution of our individual political identities. Recent polling suggests that the war against Iraq may be shaping the partisanship — the political party that people identify with — of a new generation of voters.

Once upon a time, lasting well into the 1960s for most Americans, our partisanship was something we inherited. “Grandpa was a Republican, so I am, too.” “Us Thompsons are all Democrats.”

That was all there was to it. Our party was our tribe. We generally belonged to a social class and church that reinforced these tribal ties. We intermarried with our tribe. We took jobs close to home to maintain tribal ties. So our partisanship was seldom a matter that required much thought or introspection.

But the bonds of those partisan ties weakened. Higher education qualified people for employment outside their social classes. People moved far from ancestral homes. Episcopalians married Catholics. The assassinations of the Kennedys and King, the civil rights movement and Vietnam War are thought to have created an apocalyptic cocktail that changed the partisan complexion of this nation forever, leaving the white South more Republican and baby boomers everywhere more Democratic.

Such partisan ties have profoundly influenced elections in the past two decades. They have been competitive times, with the Republicans and Democrats closely matched in partisan percentages and electoral successes. Therefore, any trend that might upset that partisan balance merits close scrutiny.

That’s why we should pay attention to recent polls by the Pew Research Center and anecdotal reporting by The New York Times of college students’ views, both suggesting that voters under 30 years old are among the most supportive of the war with Iraq.

During a time when most young Americans are forming the political partisanship that they no longer inherit, along comes Sept. 11 and the war with Iraq. History will ultimately judge those as critical events in aligning the majority of today’s under-30 generation with the Republican Party.

Expect the first manifestation of those new Republicans to be visible during the 2004 election campaigns. We will see TV spots featuring young returning reservist veterans of the Iraq War endorsing Republican candidates who challenge Democrats who waffled on the war. We will see young parents endorsing Republicans with the courage to make the world safer for their families.

This war was fought and won by young men and women who will return as heroes in their communities. They work at the mall, the police station, the local insurance agency. They will become an inspiration and role model for others of their generation.

And they know which party supported them. It wasn’t the party of Daschle and Pelosi. That impression, formed in the crucible of war, could last a lifetime.

Dr. David B. Hill is director of Hill Research Consultants, a Texas-based firm that has polled for Republican candidates and causes since 1988.


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: democratsiraq; generationy
"Recent polling suggests that the war against Iraq may be shaping the partisanship — the political party that people identify with — of a new generation of voters."

I saw a report by a journalist from MTV who spent several weeks with the troops in the field before the war started. His comment was that having several hundred thousand young people who were combat veterans in a popular war would change our country for at least a generation.

1 posted on 04/17/2003 3:27:45 PM PDT by fightinJAG
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To: fightinJAG
Is there any truth to the rumor that the dems are trying to get a Constitutional Amendment requiring 100 votes in The Senate in order for a judicial appointment to reach the floor for a vote?
2 posted on 04/17/2003 3:31:48 PM PDT by TruthShallSetYouFree
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To: fightinJAG
Tom Daschle is troubled and concerned about this.
3 posted on 04/17/2003 3:35:03 PM PDT by colorado tanker
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To: fightinJAG
One of the intersesting things that I have noticed is the age of the FReepers that come to Rallies and Freeps, Twenties and Thirties, I am a boomer, first evolution, I am very proud of these young people, they have their act together.
4 posted on 04/17/2003 3:36:17 PM PDT by Little Bill (No Rats, A.N.S.W.E.R (WWP) is a commie front!!!!)
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To: fightinJAG
He skirted the obvious conclusion: The Democrat Party may experience political oblivion for at least a generation (or at least until the current generation of Democrat leaders dies out). This is interesting, because the election of 2000 showed the nation polarized, but evenly balanced between the poles (rural vs. urban, marrieds vs. singles, interior of the country vs. the two coast). We need a break-out election to decisively tip the balance. The 2004 election proved that national security, after 9/11, trumped the economy. So on the #1 issue of our era, the Democrats have been wrong, wrong, wrong, and most voters know it. The activists in the Democrat Party hate George W. Bush more than they love America, and most voters know it. In a time where leadership is defined by moral clarity, the Democrats have proven to be morally bankrupt, and most voters know it.

We're still quite a ways out from the next year's election, but a blow-out of Nixon/McGovern portions is possible. And that could seal the fate of the Democrats for a generation.

5 posted on 04/17/2003 3:46:15 PM PDT by My2Cents ("Well....there you go again.")
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To: Little Bill
I'm right with you, Bill. Sadly, our generation (Boomers) spent so much time trying to "find ourselves," that time has passed us by. We've wasted a lot of what should have been our time in the spotlight. The first President of our generation was perhaps the worst person (perhaps not the worst President, but the worst person) to ever serve in that office. W is redeeming us a bit. But I feel better about the coming generation, more so than I do about my own.
6 posted on 04/17/2003 3:48:57 PM PDT by My2Cents ("Well....there you go again.")
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To: Thud
For your information and evaluation.
7 posted on 04/17/2003 3:57:22 PM PDT by Dark Wing
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To: My2Cents
Bush is ideologically a pre-1968 Boomer. Most Boomers are ideologically post-1968, Vietnam and Watergate were the defining momenst for them.

The Boomers are petty, vain, shallow, nearsighted, narcissistic and selfish.

No, I'm not bitter that my Boomer parents divorced when I was 3 years old.............

8 posted on 04/17/2003 4:07:16 PM PDT by ffusco ("Essiri sempri la santu fora la chiesa.")
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To: ffusco
The Boomers are petty, vain, shallow, nearsighted, narcissistic and selfish.

You pretty much described x42. His self-absorption appealed to that whole post-68 Boomer mentality, which is where he derived his support.

9 posted on 04/17/2003 4:13:23 PM PDT by My2Cents ("Well....there you go again.")
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To: My2Cents
Exactly, he vallidated their whole bag!
The loveless marriage, The infidelity, the contempt for the military, The moral relativism, the greed....

And they just won't go away!
10 posted on 04/17/2003 4:18:26 PM PDT by ffusco ("Essiri sempri la santu fora la chiesa.")
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To: fightinJAG

Oh good, here's another comeback for the Emerging Democratic Majority types who say that Republicans are hosed because the minorities are coming to get us.

Maybe not.


11 posted on 04/17/2003 4:19:29 PM PDT by Nick Danger (We have imprisoned them in their tanks -- Baghdad Bob)
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To: ffusco; My2Cents
The Boomers are petty, vain, shallow, nearsighted, narcissistic and selfish.

I don't think that all boomers meet the above quals. My Old Man was a near RINO, but my Grandfather, was hard corps conservitive, 19th Century (Born 1886), take no prisoners type. There were values and you went with them or you were one of those.

I went into the Army in 1965 and spent most of the next three years out of the country and came back to a different world. The thing that I miss most is the loss of values, those lines drawn in the sand that define civilization and personal intercourse.

Bush is not a pre 1968 person, he is a follower of the Trickey Dick maxim of get elected as a Republican rule as a DemoRAT. He with Modification is his fathers son.

12 posted on 04/17/2003 4:30:42 PM PDT by Little Bill (No Rats, A.N.S.W.E.R (WWP) is a commie front!!!!)
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To: Little Bill
Of couse they all don't fit that description. It is more an observation about the "wonderful" world they crafted.

OTOH your appraissal of W is a specious argument.
13 posted on 04/17/2003 4:47:05 PM PDT by ffusco ("Essiri sempri la santu fora la chiesa.")
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To: My2Cents
Good analysis. I hope you're right and I think you're right.
14 posted on 04/17/2003 4:50:22 PM PDT by fightinJAG (A liberal mind already is terribly wasted.)
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To: TruthShallSetYouFree
HAHAHAAHAHAAAA
15 posted on 04/17/2003 4:51:19 PM PDT by fightinJAG (A liberal mind already is terribly wasted.)
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To: My2Cents
The 2004 election proved that national security, after 9/11, trumped the economy.

Back from the future?

16 posted on 04/17/2003 4:53:15 PM PDT by Sir Gawain
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To: My2Cents
It could also go the other way, though I hope not.
17 posted on 04/17/2003 4:55:02 PM PDT by rwfromkansas (God Reigns!)
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To: Little Bill
Sure. cough.
18 posted on 04/17/2003 4:56:45 PM PDT by rwfromkansas (God Reigns!)
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To: ffusco
Time will tell, I wouldn't want to play Poker with GW, but as a New England Conservitive I am going to lay off my bets, he is playing to the middle and that has hurt us in the past.

An admitted Tricky Dick supporter.

19 posted on 04/17/2003 5:07:23 PM PDT by Little Bill (No Rats, A.N.S.W.E.R (WWP) is a commie front!!!!)
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To: Little Bill
Regarding Nixon, Watergate was 20 years too early to stop Clinton.

I admire Nixon. Anti-intellectual, pragmatic and a geo-political genius. While Nixon was uncomfortable with his personal demons, Clinton was too comfortable.
20 posted on 04/17/2003 5:15:50 PM PDT by ffusco ("Essiri sempri la santu fora la chiesa.")
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To: Nick Danger
This war was fought and won by young men and women who will return as heroes in their communities. They work at the mall, the police station, the local insurance agency. They will become an inspiration and role model for others of their generation.

This is true.

21 posted on 04/17/2003 5:20:50 PM PDT by fightinJAG (A liberal mind already is terribly wasted.)
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To: Nick Danger
The "Emerging Democratic Majority" was stupid about many things and smart about a few things.

The stupidity was to suggest that suburban, middle class voters were trending permanently Democratic. Although some of the bread and butter Republican suburbs (Long Island in New York, Orange County in LA) have lost their Republican hegemony of late, many other faster growing suburban and exurban areas are powerfully conservative. To the extent that Clinton and Gore made gains among suburbanites, it was because they co-opted (or managed to appear to have adopted) some of the key Republican issues for the suburbs, especially regarding crime. There is also the prosperity effect ... moderate Democrats seemed like they had the economy under control. All of that stuff is temporary -- Republicans can and will come back in the suburbs where they've retreated, especially if the Democrats make a move left.

The smart thing though was to point out ethnic demographics -- there are too many white liberals for Republicans to remain a majority party while getting abysmal percentages of the Hispanic vote and allowing the share of Asian vote to fall. The Hispanic vote issue is a long-term project, but the Asian vote issue should disturb Republians greatly. There is no reason, none, for Asians to vote Democratic in the increasing numbers that they do. This matters in the states where Asians are numerically significant in the electorate, and matters even more in the fact that Asians are so economically successful. Asians can and will in the first third of the century assume the disporportionate power in finance, law, banking, and media that Jewish Americans had in the second half of the 21st century (people of Jewish descent will retain disporporiationate social status, but due to accelerating assimilation, those individuals will have less than influence as a self-conscious demographic.)

22 posted on 04/17/2003 5:25:52 PM PDT by only1percent
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To: fightinJAG
The war was fought by a statistically insignificant number of people, I'm afraid. I celebrate their heroism, but a few hundred thousand people scattered around the country are not going to make a big impact. 80% more people were deployed for Desert Shield / Desert Storm, and those vets didn't have a huge cultural impact, that I can see.
23 posted on 04/17/2003 5:28:01 PM PDT by only1percent
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To: only1percent
It takes 2 points to make a line, or discern a trend. Gulf War 1 was just 1 point. The success of GW2 will re-inforce any latent trends.
24 posted on 04/17/2003 5:33:40 PM PDT by ffusco ("Essiri sempri la santu fora la chiesa.")
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To: only1percent
I think the cultural effect is still ripening. The true effect will be seen when these vets raise children and they grow up knowing their mom or dad served in the war.
25 posted on 04/17/2003 5:33:54 PM PDT by fightinJAG (A liberal mind already is terribly wasted.)
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To: ffusco
It is hard to explain but Tricky Dick could have led the Moderate Conservitive Revolution. His stunts and the reaction against them created Modern Conservitism and regretfully the Bent Ones Rat party.

To my mind, Nixon, a very flawed person, was the death of the Rocky Pubbies, and cleared the way for Reagan, and the movement for small government. This is a cyclical thing in American History, and if we win, what will we do with it, I will be dead then, what will you do with it?

26 posted on 04/17/2003 5:35:03 PM PDT by Little Bill (No Rats, A.N.S.W.E.R (WWP) is a commie front!!!!)
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To: fightinJAG
During a time when most young Americans are forming the political partisanship that they no longer inherit, along comes Sept. 11 and the war with Iraq. History will ultimately judge those as critical events in aligning the majority of today’s under-30 generation with the Republican Party.

As an under-30 non-Partisan, this gives me hope.

27 posted on 04/17/2003 5:36:39 PM PDT by k2blader (Pity people paralyzed in paradigms of political perfection.)
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To: only1percent
It's instructive to take a longer term view of party affilations. Go back to the ...

1940's: Huge majority of voters registered as Democrats who hold White House for all of the decade and Congress for 8 out of 10 years.

1950's: Republicans win White House by nominating one of the great military heroes of the 20th century but are still a small minority of voters compared to Democrats who again hold Congress for 8 years. Republican Party stagnates as largely a me-too version of moderate Democrats.

1960's: Democrats hold White House for 8 out of 10 years. Nixon elected in reaction to how horrendously the Democrats screw up country both in terms of Viet Nam and domestic upheaval. Republicans still in minority but "Silent Majority" is voting with them.

1970's: Democrats regain power after (largely press fabricated) scandals and elect worst and most incompetent president in our history. Republicans still in minority but gaining ground.

1980's: Republicans hold White House for entire decade and Senate for most of it. Still in minority but the margin is reduced to a few percentage points.

1990's: Due to lackluster Republican presidential campaign and freakishly weird third party candidate Democrats manage to elect sociopathic "boomer" con artist to White House with 43 % of vote. Same candidate reelected with 49 % against weak opponent and same third party weirdo. But Republicans regain House for first time in 40 years and hold both houses of Congress for most of decade. They also draw statistically even in party registration by the end of the decade.

2000's: Intensely close election, reflecting 50/50 political divide, results in Republican White House, Senate, and House for the first time in almost a half century. First midterm election shocks Democrats as party in White House increases seats in both houses for only second time in US history. Democrats react by moving even further to the left of the electorate. Party affiliations begin to shift to Republican majority as voters notice Democrats espouse apologising and hiding from sponsors of first foreign military attack on American soil since Pearl Harbor. Republican president fights and wins two regional wars in unheard of time with fewer casualties than one week of Viet Nam and 70 % plus poll approval.

All in all guys, it's been a long struggle but the direction is in our favor. The depression and WWII generation is dying off. Boomers are entering early middle age and many are discovering common sense. Generations X and Y are noticably more conservative than their grey haired balding ex-hippy parents.

I may be a hopeless optimist, but this is honestly how I read the past fifty plus years.

28 posted on 04/17/2003 6:22:43 PM PDT by katana
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To: Little Bill
I lack your perspective, I'm 34. However I think any move to the center by 'pubs reflects an enlightened self interest and pragmatism.

You are correct about the cyclical nature of politics, any conservative trend will most likely be followed by a liberal trend. However the center might move to the right so that the left becomes moderate and so on.

29 posted on 04/17/2003 6:42:36 PM PDT by ffusco ("Essiri sempri la santu fora la chiesa.")
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To: katana
Brilliant!
30 posted on 04/17/2003 6:46:10 PM PDT by ffusco ("Essiri sempri la santu fora la chiesa.")
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To: ffusco
To make real cultural change happens, I think that the military needs to move aggressively into recruiting young officers from top colleges. Right now, it is an very rare for someone graduating from a top 25 college to go into OCS, it's just no on the radar. If a few years as a lieutenant came to be generally thought of at Dartmouth or UVA as as good or as better a prelude to law school or b-school as a few years at McKinsey or in Teach for America, that would really change thing. Recruiting for corporate American is damn slow these days -- this is a perfect opportunity to reinject a tradition of military service into future business and political leaders.
31 posted on 04/17/2003 6:53:47 PM PDT by only1percent
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To: ffusco
However I think any move to the center by 'pubs reflects an enlightened self interest and pragmatism.

... or Cowardness and love of political office, I believe in Freedom and Constitional Government where every citizen has a right to vote and advance himself, not secure himself as a parasite on our paycheck. Freedom is not FRee.

32 posted on 04/17/2003 6:54:55 PM PDT by Little Bill (No Rats, A.N.S.W.E.R (WWP) is a commie front!!!!)
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To: Little Bill
I agree in principle, yet I don't recommend getting rid of all social programs. In everty society there will be groups that need help: The infirm, children, the elderly, people on dis-ability, My grandparents who collect S.S....



33 posted on 04/17/2003 7:05:09 PM PDT by ffusco ("Essiri sempri la santu fora la chiesa.")
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To: only1percent
God bless our military: The only remaining institution that is a true meritocracy. The best managers bar none.

A revival of martial values ( masculine values of honor, duty and responsibility) will definately change America for the better.
34 posted on 04/17/2003 7:08:25 PM PDT by ffusco ("Essiri sempri la santu fora la chiesa.")
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