SARS Threads and Information

1 posted on 04/25/2003 1:30:10 PM PDT by flutters

2 posted on 04/25/2003 1:36:02 PM PDT by CathyRyan

Thanks for putting it all together in one place!!!!!

3 posted on 04/25/2003 1:38:39 PM PDT by buffyt (Can you say President Hillary, Mistress of Darkness? Me Neither!!!!!!!!!!!!!)

4-5 billion people in the world 200-300 die...and everyone gets in a panic. More people are killed by cars in a day.

4 posted on 04/25/2003 1:39:02 PM PDT by BubbaJunebug

A totally incredible amount of work, Thank you!

5 posted on 04/25/2003 1:41:53 PM PDT by CathyRyan

6 posted on 04/25/2003 1:41:56 PM PDT by EternalHope (Boycott everything French forever.)

To: EternalHope; CathyRyan

Thank you. I've been gathering the links for sometime now. What do you make of link #2?

7 posted on 04/25/2003 1:44:31 PM PDT by flutters (God Bless The USA)

To: BubbaJunebug

Tom, Dan and Peter will let you know when it's time to panic so you don't have to stay informed. You just sit back and relax. The government will take good care of everything that needs to be done. The government will send you a pamphlet in the mail that will telling you all you need to know about sars (If they think you need to know anything)when the time comes. Nothing to see here move along.:)

8 posted on 04/25/2003 1:57:46 PM PDT by CathyRyan

Here's one that should be read: (http://www.sarsscam.com)

9 posted on 04/25/2003 2:09:24 PM PDT by Digger

To: BubbaJunebug

"4-5 billion people in the world 200-300 die...and everyone gets in a panic. More people are killed by cars in a day."

Think "common cold, but with a double digit mortality rate."
Also consider that if you put a grain of wheat on the first square of a checker board, two on the second, four on the third, eight on the fourth, and so on, you run out of the world annual wheat supply before you get to the 64th square. Un-treatable, easily communicable diseases tend to grow like that too. Think 1918-1920 Influenza epidemic.

Or listen to someone with experience in the subject:

April 25, 2003
COMMENTARY

Six Months to Act
The SARS Epidemic
By DONALD S. BURKE

The most chilling moment of my medical career occurred in 1985, when I led a program to test incoming U.S. Army recruits for HIV, the virus that causes AIDS. At the time, little was known about the emerging HIV virus or AIDS. As I began to analyze blood samples from the first 600,000 recruits, I discovered that HIV had silently infected a large cross section of apparently healthy young adults. At that moment I realized that we were already losing the race to control the virus, and that the human species was destined to be afflicted with HIV as a fact of life -- and death -- for decades to come.

Now, the spread of SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) threatens to cause another global pandemic. But this time the chances of successfully controlling the emerging microbial threat are far better -- and there is a real possibility that we can eradicate the virus before it overwhelms global control efforts.

* * *
There are three reasons for this. Firstly, most of those infected with SARS rapidly become ill and so can be easily identified. Compared with HIV/AIDS, there seems to be much less danger of them carrying the virus for prolonged periods without any outward sign of infection, so facilitating its transmission to others. Secondly, the global medical and scientific response to SARS, led by the World Health Organization, has been prompt and forceful. Cases, and people they have been in contact with, are being tracked world-wide and -- when necessary -- isolated. And scientists have already identified the coronavirus that causes SARS and deciphered its genetic code. This makes it possible to test patients for the virus, and even allows doctors to measure the quantity of virus and determine which patients are most contagious.

There is also a third factor working to our advantage, and that is the simple change of seasons. Viruses that are transmitted from human to human by coughing or sneezing, such as influenza, measles and even smallpox, are strongly seasonal in nature. In winter, the epidemic is like a chain reaction; in summer, it fizzles out. Quite why this is so has never been conclusively determined. Temperature alone is not the explanation, although experimental evidence suggests that seasonal changes in humidity levels play an important role. Crowded indoor conditions, leading to more people breathing the same air, may be another factor.

Whatever the explanation, all available evidence suggests that SARS shares the same seasonal pattern. That's also true of other coronaviruses, such as those that cause epidemics among animals and benign coronaviruses in humans. And it helps explain why the present epidemic spread so rapidly in February and March and why the infection rate has now slowed (although, of course, the absolute number of cases continues to increase).

Nature has also favored us in another way. There have been relatively few cases of influenza in most countries this year, which means there is little danger of SARS patients being misdiagnosed as having flu. When patients caught fevers and showed respiratory symptoms or pulmonary problems, especially after contact with a SARS case, it was easy to be reasonably certain they had caught the coronavirus and impose strict quarantine measures before they could spread it any further.

Next winter, we may not be so lucky. If influenza and SARS epidemics strike simultaneously, confusion will reign.

As summer approaches and the SARS epidemic declines, there will be an understandable urge to celebrate. But history teaches us that the devastating 1918 influenza epidemic began with a modest "herald wave" in spring that faded away during the summer, only to explode and wreak global devastation the following fall and winter. It is possible that SARS, now seeded around the globe, could follow a similar pattern and fade away this summer, only to erupt again next winter.

The coming summer lull in SARS affords an extraordinary opportunity. If we can detect, diagnose and effectively isolate every contagious case during the period when the infection rate is at its lowest, it is possible that we can truly eradicate SARS, not just for the short term, but permanently.

Epidemic-control efforts should not simply be maintained, but doubled, and redoubled again. New diagnostic tests should be mass-produced and made freely available around the globe. Epidemiological teams should investigate every possible case, even in the poorest communities. Face-saving politicians who hide local epidemics must be cajoled, or more forcefully convinced, to cooperate. Special efforts must be made to detect and quench new outbreaks in the Southern Hemisphere. With skill, determination and luck, we might be able to break all the chains of transmission before the onset of winter offers the virus a chance to spread more rapidly again.

Technological optimists may argue that eradication is not essential, because antiviral drugs and vaccines will be developed that can control SARS. However, experience with AIDS, West Nile and Ebola suggests these techno-fixes will not be ready for several years, at best. On the other hand, epidemiological pessimists will warn that eradication of SARS is simply impossible, some with the nuanced argument that even if SARS is eradicated, it may emerge again, either naturally or through accidental bio-bungling. But a virus that jumps across species to cause an outbreak is a highly random event, unlikely to recur often.

* * *
Of course, the pessimists may eventually be proved correct: A halfhearted effort at controlling the epidemic would guarantee failure. But if the U.S. is prepared to lead a world-wide coalition of nations in joining forces with the World Health Organization with the goal of doing everything possible to eradicate SARS, this extraordinary goal might just be achievable.

Louis Pasteur, father of microbiology, wisely counseled that "Chance favors the prepared mind." For the moment, chance is on our side. But we have just six months to complete the job of the global eradication of the SARS coronavirus. After that, when the seasonal epidemic flares next year, it will be too late.

Dr. Burke is professor of international health and epidemiology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

URL for this article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/0,,SB105123092912099900,00.html

10 posted on 04/25/2003 2:10:36 PM PDT by Blue_Ridge_Mtn_Geek

Excellent! Thanks for putting it together.

11 posted on 04/25/2003 2:16:00 PM PDT by per loin

Certainly an interesting link. But what happened next?

12 posted on 04/25/2003 2:22:20 PM PDT by EternalHope (Boycott everything French forever.)

Nothing to see here move along.

Get moving then ...

13 posted on 04/25/2003 2:23:57 PM PDT by _Jim (Guangdong doctor linked to SARS: http://www.biomedcentral.com/news/20030320/09/)

Well done.

I will say there is too much hysteria on this and wild speculation non-info being talked about here.

All this "virus is mutating rapidly" etc.. is just nonsense.

SARS is a serious disease and health threat and it's cause is still not certain.

But the doomsday scenarios and widespread panic, fear, exageration and hysteria anr unwarrented.

The only way the sarsmania (a great term coined by Americanintokyo) would live up to its promise is if this were an escaped bioweapon developed in China.

I would tend to doubt such a scenario, but it is a possibility and there is info consistent with this.

14 posted on 04/25/2003 2:29:41 PM PDT by tallhappy

Dutch Bird Flu Claims First Human Victim (Not SARS)
16:08 22 April 03, NewScientist.com news service
Dutch scientists are urgently checking whether the bird flu virus sweeping the country has mutated into a dangerous human pathogen, after it claimed its first human victim.
A 57-year-old Dutch veterinarian died of pneumonia in the southern city of Den Bosch on Thursday, and the "most likely cause", say investigators, is the bird flu virus.
Concern about the virus has been mounting ever since it became clear that the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza that has been ravaging Dutch poultry farms since 28 February can also infect humans.
So far, 82 people with clinical symptoms have tested positive for the bird virus. Nearly all have had conjunctivitis, a mild eye infection, but six people had typical flu-like symptoms.

Severe bird flu hits Europe
Reuters via The Straights Times ^ | Saturday, April 19, 2003 | Reuters
LONDON - Europe is becoming rattled by a severe Dutch outbreak of bird flu that is infecting humans and prompting fears that a mutated version of the virus could spark a flu epidemic in people.
The Dutch Agriculture Ministry said there was a danger that bird and human flu could mix in pigs and produce a mutation that humans have no resistance against.
World Health Organisation spokesman Iain Simpson said: 'It is possible. Up to now avian flu has never acquired the ability to transmit from one person to another - if it does... it could cause a large number of infections.'
The Netherlands has been grappling to contain the month-long outbreak that has spilled into Belgium and is approaching Germany.
About 15 million out of more than 100 million birds have been slaughtered in the Netherlands as the authorities battle to suppress its spread.

Dutch bird flu losses well over EUR 100 million
AMSTERDAM, April 23 (Reuters) - The Dutch poultry and egg sector has suffered well over 100 million euros ($109 million) in losses from the bird flu outbreak sweeping through the European Union's biggest poultry exporter, an official said on Wednesday.
It was impossible to pinpoint a figure since the poultry disease was spreading, according to Albert Vernooij, market analyst with the Product Board for Livestock, Meat and Eggs. "It's huge, but the situation is developing so fast, it's very difficult to give a figure," he told Reuters.
Around 18 million poultry have been slaughtered as authorities fight to contain the outbreak in the Netherlands, also the world's biggest egg exporter and global fourth in poultry exports.

15 posted on 04/25/2003 2:33:38 PM PDT by _Jim (Guangdong doctor linked to SARS: http://www.biomedcentral.com/news/20030320/09/)

Nothing to see here move along. Get moving then ...

Sorry. I don't watch Peter, Dan, or Tom so I have to get my information here. So that if the time every comes to panic I will know about it. :)

16 posted on 04/25/2003 2:39:30 PM PDT by CathyRyan

To: flutters; Mother Abigail; Petronski; per loin; EternalHope; Domestic Church; riri; InShanghai; ...

17 posted on 04/25/2003 3:11:49 PM PDT by aristeides

Bookmarked! Thank you.

18 posted on 04/25/2003 3:43:14 PM PDT by Domestic Church (AMDG...)

To: Blue_Ridge_Mtn_Geek

" A halfhearted effort at controlling the epidemic would guarantee failure. But if the U.S. is prepared to lead a world-wide coalition of nations in joining forces with the World Health Organization with the goal of doing everything possible to eradicate SARS, this extraordinary goal might just be achievable. "

Here we are on the modest "herald wave" of this pandemic and even now the Canadian authorities are throwing hissy fits about lost $$$ and being labeled...if this is any indicator we are going up river without a paddle. Someone had better smack some sense into Chretien fast.

19 posted on 04/25/2003 3:58:02 PM PDT by Domestic Church (AMDG...)

That nurse who just died in the Phillipines had flown in from Toronto to see her father.

20 posted on 04/25/2003 4:10:40 PM PDT by Domestic Church (AMDG...)

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